Investment Q&A

Q: I have questions about earnings estimates, triggered most recently by your answer to an earlier-today question about Bird Construction. Your answer stated "The earnings estimate for Bird was $0.22 . . ."

WHO comes up with these earnings estimates and, more importantly, HOW do they come up with them? What credentials does anyone (outside the company) have to come up with such statements?

Even more importantly, why do "investors" (??) believe such estimates, to the extent that an "earnings miss" like BDT's drops the share price? Or, more correctly I guess, why does the belief in what would seem to be flimsy evidence like an estimate drive up the share price?

But I'm willing to be educated (that is why I'm here<g>).

Q: Would you consider that the US MARKET has topped temporarily and is about to make a correction?
Ditto for Canada?

If so what might some money making opportunities in contra ETFs?

Q: I've sold Paladin (thank you) and have cash to invest. My stock holdings are below. Looking for 3-4 new HIGH QUALITY companies (regardless of sector) that aren't highly cyclical and you would consider "must adds" for a long-term investor.
Tech 30% - CSU/AAPL/ESL/MDA/AYA/GIB
Fin 30% - BNS/XLF/AIG/BMO/CXS
Ind 10% - STN/BYD.UN
CD 10% - CGX/ACQ
Enr 10% - CPG/PPL
Tel 5% - T
Hlth 5% - VRX
Thanks for your great service!

Q: which companies that you guys have covered could be the most negatively affected by a surprise interest rate increase, thanks?

Q: Hello Peter.
This may be more of a portfolio management and Investor behaviour question but as everyone wants to own a portfolio that grows and/or grows income, from your experience how does an individual investor balance all the inputs?
Inputs like, Media noting markets appear to have run their distance, Others saying we are in a long-term Bull at least into March next year, technical managers indicating sell when the uptrend is broken.(good investments don't always stay in an uptrend)
I understand most of this is noise and some is out there to generate market activity, but in the mix has to be some truth to be distilled.
As a small investor, I am interested in seeing my portfolio grow over time and would like to not pay 2.5% or more to the banks for keeping my capital in a mutual fund.
I guess the question is, how does a small investor navigate through the noise and what are the important structural inputs for successful investing as a retail investor? What are the important inputs that will support the right moves (portfolio management) at the right time?
Your thoughts on this and any resources or readings in this area you can recommend would be appreciated.
Thanks for this ongoing excellent service
Dave

Q: I have been advised to safeguard my recent portfolio increases, which have been substantial, by selling shares equal to my profits, leaving only my original investment amounts. While an attractive idea, I am a dividend drip investor and removing the profits will reduce the "multiplier" effect they should have in a bull market. What would you advise?
David
PS: And of course keep up the good work!

Q: When I analyze the 5i Model Portfolio and the assignment of securities to sectors I see that some stocks get tagged with "Services" which could just as easily be tagged with something else. For instance AYA and CSU ("Services") are ones I would tag "Technology" along with ESL and SYZ and if they were thus tagged it would make Tech a 20% portfolio weighting based on cost and 23% based on current value (Sept.30). If you agree with this assumption would it be an indication that 5i highly favours the Tech sector over others, even though Tech is less than 2% of the TSX Composite? There's no doubt the performance of the 5i portfolio going forward is going to be vastly different than the TSX where 72% of the composite is Financials, Energy and Materials.

Q: Could you give me your current view on Vale. I have concerns on it and am considering selling it and buying Pembina or Riocan. I am looking for long term capital stability and reasonable dividend.

Q: Hi Peter, I have set aside a downpayment for a future home purchase in the next 6-12 months, and rather than earning 1% in a 'high interest' savings account, what would you recommend I do with the cash? Obviously I would want this cash to be safe, but at the same time earn a higher return than simply parking it in a savings account. Thanks

Q: Hey team, can you tell me what kind of indicators you look for in a market top? This market for me has become pretty scary so I decided to cash out on some companies such as AYA that could be caught big time in a downward movement.

Q: Good morning..currently rebalancing RRSP portfolio...currently own ARX,BTE,WCP and E representing 18%...was thinking of reducing ARX and adding TOU...is 18% to high in current market conditons?
Utility pipeline...BEP.UN,IPL,NPI..representing 15%...thinking of selling NPI to reduce allocation to 11.5%..is this allocation okay whith the current market...

sorry one more question...I have no exposure to healh..if wanted a 5% holding what would you recommend?

Thanks again!!

Q: I watched BNN last Tuesday and an analyst said that TSX is at a 2-year high and suggested that short-term investors should take a side-line position now.

I need to cash in most of my “Cash Portfolio” next March/April for a major home renovation project. I have the following stocks in this portfolio. I also have some cash.

AGU, BNS, AYA, CGX, MG, ENB, MDA.

AGU is down 7%, all others are fine.

Please suggest which/when stocks I should sell and/or switch to more short-term tolerant stocks. Thanks again!

Q: I am a new member and I want to start an equity portfolio. I already have bonds and GICs. Since the market is volatile and uncertain, which sectors would you recommend for a retiree with a low risk tolerance seeking for some growth ?

Q: Hello.

What is your opinion on seasonal investing.

Q: Based on BOC further delay increasing interest rates...how do you feel about good quality REITS for the next 12 months(few names)...what other key sector/name would benefit ...growth...Thanks

Q: Thanks for your excellent site.
I would like to invest 20% of my RIF into a Balanced (or other low risk alternative)ETF or MF to replace my Bond investment and improve the return of my portfolio.
I do not depend on my RIF for a living and my risk tolerance is average.
Your view and advise please

Q: Hi team, really appreciate the advice. Recently I have altered my portfolio quite a bit to focus on growth stocks. Currently I hold AAPL, STN.TO, CSU.TO, CMG.TO, HCG.TO and VG.TO. Do you think I am diversified enough? If not, what are some sectors and specific companies that I should look into moving out of / into?

Q: Hello Peter!
On 15th.October I started my $100K Portfolio partially based on your Model Portfolio and also on my own ideas as follow|
ACQ-13%
CSU-13%
AD- 13%
BAD-12.5%
AYA-7.7%
STN-7.7%
BYD.un-9.2%
MG-9.3%
ESL-6.5%
RRx-6.5%
Please give me your opinion on my portfolio and what would you change. Thanks Andrew B.

Q: I have held a Man AHL hedge fund MCC101 in my RRSP for a number of years. It did well in the market crash. I think it would do well in a market up turn but in an up and down market like we have had it does nothing. Is there any point in holding on to this? I think if I just followed your model portfolio I would do (a lot) better.

Q: The S&P500 has been going vertical since Nov 2012, except for the mussing about QE easing. Profits have been slowing and the multiples are expanding. When do you expect a pull back in the US market?