Investment Q&A

Q: Hello 5i team,

Your January update (like everything else that you do) was much appreciated.

Over the past decade, whereas I would have been satisfied with a 7% compound annual return in order to meet my income needs, my RRIF portfolio registered a growth rate of 15% compound p.a. That’s great! However, in the last 3 years while I kept expecting a lower return, the actual returns kept confirming the long term trend.
Once again, if the estimated returns for the next 15 years (age 90) were to be 7% annually, I would be very happy.
This scenario would be my “base case”

However, we should expect a recession during this span of time; it is not a matter of “if” but “when”.
In the past recessions, most of the following indicators (yield curve, inflation trends, labour market, credit/liquidity situation, ISM index, earnings quality and housing market) painted a recessionary picture. The average market drop of the last 4 recessions was around 40%, the average duration around 1 year and the average recovery period around 2 years.
At present, and for now; all of these indicators are in an expansionary mode.

What should I do to prepare for or react to the upcoming recession hits?

1. I could ride the recession (stay invested); in this scenario, my annual income would be 21% lower than in the base case.

2. I could exit after the start of the recession (while closely observing the leading indicators). Incur a 20% drop in the value of my portfolio (vs 40%), partially miss the first part of the recovery and obtain 15% (vs assumed 33%) and on to the second leg 25% recovery. In this scenario, my annual income would be 4% lower than in the base case. This outcome would be quite acceptable; it’s just like a rounding error.

3. I could also try to be “cute” and exit just before the start of the recession. This scenario would be a “non-starter” because it implies “timing the market”. Imagine if I exited the market in early 2019 and the recession did not hit until 2 years later……

I’m therefore leaning towards scenario 2. What do you think? What do you suggest?

Thanks, as always,

Antoine

Q: I am heavily overweight with big profits in the above stocks.
Which should I hold onto or sell?
Which will be affected by a NAFTA collapse?
Thanks for great advice.
Alex

Q: Greetings.

I am planning on early retiring next year at 55. I am looking to transition my portfolio form balanced/growth to income. It would seem that although timing the market is not a predictable strategy, it would seem to me that this is probably the perfect time to transition my portfolio given the weaknesses in the utilities, telecom, pipes etc.

I have cash saved for my first 2 years of retirement to avoid being forced to withdraw funds at a 'inopportune time'. However, i also know my portfolio may need to last a number of years prior to being able to claim cpp, oas and social security (spouse of american citizen collecting social security). Would you recommend transitioning now or do i risk too much growth in the next while? Your thoughts/recommendations are always appreciated.
Cheers

Q: Am I correct in being a bit nervous about the tech sector getting ahead of itself? I own the above stocks in tech. I have trimmed SHOP from about 12% down to 7%, and I own about 6% in the others, (all with good gains). So - still about 25% tech. I've thought of selling all tech and sitting on the sidelines for a few months, or, just making a trim to reflect a balance. How would you suggest I proceed to further? Thanks, as always.

Q: A. With the expected further increases in interest rates in 2018.
Should I anticipate pullback from certain sectors? your opinion please.
if so which sectors, DOES 5i recommend adjusting asset allocation in response to interest rates?

B. I have been a student of the DIY investing for the last 10 years but have no experience with a potential era of interest rate rise and don't know what to expect.

I struggle with this, probably too much media coverage, I would prefer to be a buy and hold, all of my equities are blue chip dividend companies. (but it is hard to see portfolio drop on no news other than interest rate rise.) I believe I am looking for reassurance in this last comment:)

Ernie

Q: This is probably a tough one to call but what do you think about the Canadian $ versus the US$. Is it going up or down and what you you buy VFV or VSP or a combination of both? With thanks, Bill

Q: Good day...I am in the process of moving money to the u.s as currency seems to be at the proper spot and also I have all of the balanced and income portfolio now, so my question is would I be better using etfs - MXI - SOXX - XLV and IYF or using ICHR - NVDA - ISRG - HD - JPM - V - HD AND DIS...my thoughts are this will give me diversification that I cannot achieve with 5i stocks...your direction has made a huge difference to my portfolio but I feel I need some geographic diversification ....I look forward to your answer and thanks...gene

Q: Dear Team:
I have been retired for 5 years now and have been self investing with a return of 13.58% on average. I have reached 60 years and feel that I should have more fixed income as of right now; I have about 12% of fixed income. My portfolio size is over $1M. I have 2 questions for you:
1) Do you think I need more fixed income?
2) If I was to increase my fixed income, I am thinking of an ETF for either Re-set Preferred Shares or Short Term Corp Bonds or Real Return Bonds. Which do you like?
Thanks for your time
Jim

Q: In your opinion, what would one use to short the SPX indexe. As things seem to be a little stretched, and getting more so. On the US and Can side
Thanks

Q: What was the sector rotation in the US you spoke of yesterday?? It was "a fairly strange market day with a giant US stock reversal."

Q: SOX has been on a hot roll this year. I know you commented positively on Q3 earnings but any idea subsequent to that as to what has lit the fire?

Thanks

Kim

Q: Hello:back In the 1990’s the tsx and the Dow were just about even. Today there is about a 10000 point difference. In general terms, can you explain why this has occurred. Also I have read in several articles that the tsx usually lags the Dow by about six months to a year. (Either up or down). Do you agree with this statement. If yes will the tsx begin to narrow the gap in the next few years?

Q: A question about Geographic Diversification.
Percentage of Canada, USA and World Stocks?
What is the recommendation? For 2018?
Thank you.

Q: Hello Peter,

1) Your thoughts on Midas Gold. I was thinking of purchasing some based on the possibility of the Idaho Project going ahead. Is it viable at 1300$ Gold
2) Your thoughts on New York City disposing of Energy Infrastructure. Seems like everybody is down on Oil and Gas. I'm thinking this is a start of a trend to move away from the energy companies engaged in Oil and Gas. And will it negatively affect oil and gas.

Kevin

Q: Hello 5i team,
S&P Dow Jones Indices and MSCI recently announced revisions to the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®) structure for 2018. I think it would make a great topic for a 5i blog. In the meantime, I have a some questions: (1) does this announcement confirms that we should not always follow blindly industrial classification? (2) the classification is not always up to date, especially in developing industries (internet, telecom, media, communication) or when companies are transitioning activities? (3) Investors should allow themselves to split classification 50%/50% for some companies? (4) Could you list some companies that you think are currently "misclassified" by index providers (SHOP communications?) including companies either under coverage or in 5i Research portfolios or that will be reclassified?; (5) Would you agree that this announcement confirms that long term investors should not care that much about short term sector weighting fluctuations (rounding to the closest 5% is good enough) and should focus on selecting the best investments (stocks) whatever the sector, while just avoiding too high sector concentration, instead of doing mandatory diversification among all sectors in less good companies (for exemple recently : energy)? My main point is: many investors will change the composition of their portfolio (trade) following S&P and MSCI decision while their portfolio exposition (economic drivers) will not have change. Reading most 5i Research questions every day, I see many questions about sector allocation. I thought my questions would help some clients. Any other thoughts?
Thank you for your collaboration, Eric

Q: what is outlook / recommendation for cdz

Q: Hello 5i team,
In light of the uncertainty in NAFTA. If a company is exposed to the states in any way and they wish to give guidance as to the impact of a NAFTA collapse, would this be given in the MD&A for a company?

Andrew

Q: You have mentioned on occasion that the Tech sector tends to be the hot sector during the last quarter of the year.
The market is behaving quite well at the moment with a reasonable amount of optimism. Do you expect there to be a shift from investing in the tech sector to other sectors given the current investment climate?
Which sector(s) would you think will most benefit from any possible shift of funds in Canada and the US? Or has it already happened?

Q: I feel like I'm consulting an oracle here but I am wondering what your thoughts are on an impending correction. My concern is with respect to the amount of people chasing up tech and marijuana stocks especially. Everything has risen so much in the last 6-12 months that I can't help but think we are over due for a pullback. Would it be wise to sit on the sidelines and wait? I hate to miss out on the party but I'd rather lose a bit of upside here and be able to take advantage of a possible major pullback than be the last one out the door after the party is over. Thanks in advance.

Q: Curious for your thoughts regarding the potential impacts on companies such as WSP and Stantec (companies that provide services in the US vs sell products) resulting from a collapse of Nafta.
Thanks
Joe