Investment Q&A

Q: Financial stocks of every type are getting hammered again today, as they were yesterday. Everything from banks to insurance companies to credit cards and payment processors in both the US and Canada are down between 5-10% in the last two days. Can you draw a line for me on how the possibility of trade disruption between the US and China could account for this? Is Bank of America really worth 9% less today than Wednesday because of Trump's trade tariffs or this just mindless "sell everything!" panic?

Q: I have a general concern that I would appreciate your assessment regarding both the US and world economies. We have a US stock market that has been rising consistently for some time now. Bond yields are on the rise with increasing concerns about inflation. Now there is a threat of a major trade war as Trump considers placing significant tariffs on Chinese imports. This has been tried in the past (ie 1930) with dire consequences. Sure, US imports of tariffed goods decreased but so did exports as other companies struck back with their own tariffs. And if China, for example, sells less goods to the USA it will buy less raw materials from other countries affecting their economies.. So the risk is a major slow down in world economies. I would expect prices for many products in the US to rise substantially, due to Trump's insular view of how things work with increased pressure on inflation and bond rates. My concern is that all of this could result in a major recession next year. How do you view this situation? I would appreciate your thoughts and analysis. Thanks.

Q: Hi 5 i team, it seems that price movement is not related to quarterly earning as compared to previous but is affected by result as compared to estimate. Is there any way of guessing whether earning will beat or less than estimate prior to announcement ?

Q: 1:10 PM 3/19/2018
Hello Peter
I would appreciate it if Peter could answer this question as he has years of experience as a fund manager and I would respect his considered opinion....

We have a large Blue Chip dividend-growth income portfolio of Canadian stocks. It currently has unrealized gains of about 25% and has a dividend yield of 4.6%. We run this equity portfolio like a private pension fund for ourselves.

We are quite aware that a major market "correction" or crash will come sometime in the next year or so and would like to position the equity part of our portfolio for that event. There are really only three options that we can see.

OPTION 1. Sell all our stocks and go to Treasury bills and 2 to 5 year Government Bonds, for a yield of about 2 to 2.5% in interest income. We would be giving up a 4.6% dividend income stream in exchange for a 2.5% interest income and lose the advantage of the dividend tax credit. Additionally we would be hit with a massive taxable capital gain pushing us well into the topmost tax bracket.

OPTION 2. Do Nothing. If during the crash our stocks dropped 50% in price it wouldn't matter as we would plan to neither sell nor buy any more shares up until and during the crash. If as a worst case scenario, dividends were cut by 50% on all our shares [most unlikely] then our dividend income yield would still be 2.3%, and with the Dividend tax credit would still beat the 2.5% interest income we would be getting if we had sold all our stocks and switched to short-term bonds and bills as in Option 1.

So if we choose Option 2 and ride out the market crash fully invested, then we are no worse off for income than choosing Option 1 and selling out and going to "cash", and we don't get hit with a massive capital gain tax bill.

OPTION 3. As in Option 2, sell no stocks in our Cash accounts but sell everything in our 2 RRIFs, and 2 TGIFs which together amount to about 10% of the overall portfolio. We could sell all the shares in them easily at any time at virtually no cost in our discount brokerage, park the money in GICs and no capital gains taxes would be payable at all. The proceeds would be ready for buying blue chip dividend-growth yielders when the time seemed right.

In simplest terms the object is to preserve capital as much as possible while at the same time allowing withdrawal of a reasonable predictable income.

What did Dividend Aristocrat type portfolio fund managers, or Pension Fund Managers Like Peter do in anticipation of the market correction in 2007 - stay invested, change asset allocations, become more defensive [how?], do sector rotation, adjusting allocations among the 11 TSX sectors - out of what and into what? Anything else?

If you, Peter were responsible as a portfolio fund manager for running our equity portfolio which is essentially a Canadian "Dividend Aristocrat" portfolio, how would you handle it in the years ahead considering the high probability of a major market correction/crash? Would you choose one of these options or would you have a different strategy?

Thank you.............Paul K

Q: what type of stocks would be less impacted by trade negotiations I would guess gaming stocks and gold? i would appreciate your input thanks

Q: Hello 5i
I find myself gravitating(buying) more and more to US stocks in search of above average growth. I believe you have said non Cdn allocation is personal choice but I could fill my entire portfolio with US stocks. What do you see as the biggest negative to this?
Thanks
Dave

Q: Good morning 5i

I have benefited quite well from the ten year market performance. Not as well as if I had bought the US Market on March 9 2009 and added new capital all the way. In some individual stock positions I have experienced losses during this longest bull market run.

Additionally, over the past couple years, 5i has add positively to net asset value and this investor's awareness level.

The question here is about seeing through an inevitable correction or bear market event.
The minor correction event of 2018 offered a view to how it will feel when prices decline.
In the wake of that event, how does an investor continue to deploy and redeploy capital while staring at the high potential for a market decline.
The difficulty being experienced is, as I cleanup and balance individual weighting, it is now difficult to make a go-forward redeployment decision......add to equity exposure.
Additionally, the amount of time being waisted watching daily price movements has increased.
Some days it feels like going to cash would solve all my concerns. It would not however since asset growth is a necessary target.

From your experience would you please offer some Thoughts and guidance on what is written above?

Thanks
Dave

Q: Given the recent volatility in the US I am wondering about portfolio insurance in the short term. While holding cash is one way to mitigate a drop, I don't really want to hold much more than I currently do so I'm wondering if HIU would be a good way or if there is some other strategy you might suggest. I hear many comments about more significant declines, with the trade issues that are currently occupying a lot of political talk, raising rates, and, if the Dow gets back up to the 26,000 level that could be a double top, all of which make me nervous.

So, since I am a long term investor, rather that take profits and raise more cash, what would you do for some short term downside portfolio insurance? Thanks

Q: What percentage of a persons portfolio would you currently recommend allocating to each sector?

Thanks

Q: Hello, I have many less than 1% positions among mine and my wifes rrsp, tfsa etc. these are all good stocks which I would like to own. But this leads to too many holdings..what is a best way to manage these. Is it better to have one or max two stocks or one etf in each sector and sell the rest? Is there a good time to do this? Do portfolios with more concentrated positions say 5% do better? What position sizes for growthy small caps?

Sorry multiple questions use as many credits as appropriate.

Thanks.

Regards,
Shyam

Q: In terms of positioning I present a scenario. You are 68 years old. You have currently 1M invested. You are 20% Fixed Income. You are 10% cash and 70% equities. You somewhat depend on Dividends so you have slanted the 70% equity portfolio to dividend stocks. (90%) Blue chip BCE, ENB, MFC etc. Is this a mistake? Should you perhaps even out the portfolio to growth stocks that pay no dividend but offer you upside. i.e. CCl.B, SJ, ATD.B. You get the gist. Now supposing you have been diagnosed with a medical condition that tells you will be dead in 5 years. When you kick the bucket (which in end we all do) and want to leave the maximum amount of money to your dysfunctional family how to you structure this now? I have no concerns about running out of money but at the same time I want to leave the maximum money on the table when I die. What do you recommend as a strategy? That’s the there, there!

Q: Hi Peter and Team - I know this question is a little outside of the regular type of question/answer component of your services and that you are not in the business of predicting macro economic events. However am just wondering if you have any thoughts on how interest rates may play out over the next couple of years both in Canada and the U.S. With the tax reform package now passed in Congress is it quite possible that this could lead to fairly major inflationary pressures in the U.S. and therefore substantial interest rate increases. If so then what might be the effect on Canada's interest rates and resulting stock market movements. Thanks.

Q: I can't add to my RIF, I can't put more than $5,500 in my TFSA annually, so my unregistered cash account is holding shares that will mean major capital gains. I have trimmed periodically, but currently ATD.B is up 1,068 %, SQ up 119%, NVDA up 324%, SHOP up 207%, BYD.UN up 118%. I am not complaining. I offer 5i my sincere thanks for your advice over several years that has been so rewarding. I tend to hold overly long , so I am wondering whether I should in future sell when a stock has reached, say 40%, and buy another stock? What to do?

Q: I think most investing houses recognize the US is going down a path of debt destruction. What is your assessment and thoughts of the the opinions expressed by Peter Schiff as it relates to the US. He has some very compelling arguments but many think the economy is actually in great shape..?

Q: What do you see as the best strategy to benefit from downturns like what we’ve seen lately. Is it just make sure you always have cash to deploy when one happens or is there some stock/fund that is average most of the time but really benefits from the pull backs somehow?

Q: Hello, with the Dow down more than 4% twice this week, can you comment based on your observations (volume, block size, leverage or other) and experience if the automated trading could explain this volatility and trigger this panic. Also, would you know if the level of leverage and use of derivatives has increased over the last few years or vs 2008 ? Thank you.

Q: I, like everyone like rising share values but as an investor still in the accumulating phase of life, lower share prices equal more shares bought every quarter or month. If one is in invested in decent financial instruments and payouts are not cut then the price of the underlying security does not matter unless you have to sell. I remember 2000 and 2008/9. We were due for a correction and we will again survive. Just my two cents worth, Steve

Q: I wonder if I could get your take on what Jim Cramer says is behind the current mess in the market. According to him most of the problem is hedge fund managers having to sell stocks to make margin calls on heavy, leveraged short bets they made on VIX volatility funds. It makes as much sense as any other reason I've seen. If it was just fear of a rising yield the big banks would be rising, not leading the way lower. https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/08/cramer-these-4-securities-will-signal-the-end-of-the-sell-off.html

Q: Hello Folks:
My question is most basic re: bond and equity market price relationships.
I understand for bond yields to rise; either bond prices must trade lower or new ones issued with higher yields.
Commentators advise because of higher bond yields, people hesitant about equity market risk are moving money into the bond market.
With fewer people chasing stocks I can understand this could somewhat dampen stock prices.
What I do not understand is the reverse in the bond market.....more money from stock sale proceeds chasing bonds in the fixed income market should increase bond prices depressing yields.
I would appreciate if you can help with this basic finance 101 question.
Thanks for everything
brian

Q: I have been wondering for some time about market valuations and your recent comment about inflation being bad for markets has raised it again for me. If a market is doing reasonably well and inflation sets in could there be a reset of stock valuations. If so what sectors could get re-evaluated and is it across the board in a given sector or specific to certain size market caps?
Thank you
Clarence