Investment Q&A

Q: Hello: I am trying to find the list of those companies (Canadian, US, global) who have increased dividends year over year +for ever+. I know I have seen it but am not able to find it right now. Can you please point me to this, I am going to try to use it more in my portfolio planning. Many thanks to you, Marilyn

Q: Can you explain currency hedging with a SIMPLE example. Maybe include when it would be advantageous to use a hedged product versus unhedged. I don't think I'm slow, but it's just not clear to me, and I may not be alone.
Len

Q: Hi Peter & team,
What would quantitive tightening do to the markets if the feds move ahead with that, and which investments would benefit the most?
Thanks!

Q: I have seen my investments total value in US stocks and non hedged ETFs going down lately, although individual stock price are doing OK.
I know it is very difficult to predict currency fluctuations, I would like your view and recommendation on how to protect my portfolio. Is buying hedged ETFs is the solution and what about your view on the Canadian dollar against the US $ and the Euro.
I value your opinion
Raouf

Q: What is 5I's current position on hedging the C$ when buying/holding Int'l ETFs. Do you suspect that this is a short-lived situation?

Carl

Q: What could make the TSX and NASDAQ drop over a hundred points in an hour at mid-day on no news?

Q: The 8% gain of the Cdn dollar over the past few weeks could have a huge impact on stocks like NFI and others in a negative way.
With the Cdn dollar on a terror lately what sectors if any would stand to gain from this currency move and what would be two individual stocks that you think could gain by the US/Cdn exchange rate moving closer to par.
Always appreciate your perspective.
Thank you
Terry

Q: When a correction (5-15% downturn) is in process, how can you tell that it is simply a correction as opposed to a bear market (greater than 20% downturn)? What metrics do you use to tell the difference between a correction versus a bear market?

Q: I am trying to make a plan for what I will specifically do when the next correction comes. I am making a list of stocks that I will buy. I have set aside some cash. My plan is to spend 25% of my cash at each 5% downturn interval. So when the market corrects 5% I will spend 25%. If the market corrects another 5% I will spend another 25%. My plan is too keep going until I run out of cash. When I do run out of cash (when the market is down 20%) I would tap into a line of credit using the same strategy.

What do you think of this plan? Is it a good way to manage a correction? If not, can you suggest a better way? Thank you.

Q: On BNN this morning it stated our Canadian Stock Market ranked 96th out 100 world markets. Is there any way to find the figure for foreign buying of Canadian stocks and compare these figures to the past. Are we not in play due to Nafta changes coming and fear of Pres. Trump.,the low demand for commodities, our Liberal Governments Federal & Ontario Provincial, NDP in Alberta and BC. Our high home prices in Toronto and B C and fear of real Estate Collapse or What ? RAK

Q: My overall portfolio is down 3% the last 6-8 weeks which I justify as the downside of having equities in the portfolio. I am 40% in cash so the drawdown could have been worse. My concern is that the 3% drawdown is just over $20000 and that is a lot of money. We are 70 with defined benefit pensions and really don't need any more capital; just want to preserve what we have. You preach the downside of market timing, but I see $ 20000 worth of paper gains slipping through our fingers. Short of investing 100% in gic's should someone with my profile be more of a trader ie use tight downside tolerances and sell when a predetermined gain or loss is met rather than buy and hold. Please comment as I very much value your opinion. Thank you.

Q: I just read this from a respected member of an American investment service and would like to know your thoughts. Do you agree with his reason that the fund industry does their tax loss selling in September? If so, is this the case in Canada also?

"If anyone out there expects to do tax loss selling this year, I have a few words of wisdom for you.
September is the worst month of the year for the market historically. Look it up, you'll see. The reason September is such a poor performing month is that the fund industry does their tax loss selling in September because that's the end of their fiscal year. They don't operate on calendar year.
The reason we usually get a Santa Claus rally is because wash rules have been exhausted, cash has been raised, and cash goes back to work because fund charters stipulate they can't hold over a certain percentage of cash.
So, if you are going to sell something for tax losses, and want to buy the company back a little later and establish a lower cost basis, the time to do your selling is in August, prior to the funds doing their selling. You'll have time for the wash rules to play out so that you can reinvest in time for the Santa Claus rally."

Q: Hi 5i,

I currently have 14% of my portfolio in materials, which include MX (3.2%), CCL (4.25%), ZCL (3.47%) and AEM (2.84%).

I also have 12% of my portfolio in consumer non-disc, which include PBH (4.85%), DOL (3.47%) and ZZZ (3.2%).

For a growth oriented investor with 30 years until retirement what do you recommend as an appropriate allocation to materials and consumer non-disc? I will need to trim my holdings in each of these sectors to re-balance as I feel I am overweight so any suggestions on what should go?

Thank you as always,

Jon

Q: In my portfolio, small cap and technology has weakened in the last two months, yet l see indexs making new highs, at least in the US, where are the gains; sectors?

Q: Hello again. I’m interested to know how to consider currency when deciding between hedged, unhedged, and US dollar ETFs. In your answer to my last question, you mentioned that you prefer VPL over VAH; how was currency a factor in your judgment? Also wondering if you would approach European ETFs similarly, with respect to fluctuations between the Euro, USD and CAD (e.g. VEH, VE, VGK). Are there separate currency considerations I should take into account for each region, including EM? (e.g. VEE vs VWO)

When I hear professionals recommend CAD-hedged ETFs when the USD is falling, it sounds tactical but what if an investor has a long time horizon in mind? I’ve heard that unhedged ETFs yield better returns over time, say for a period of 15 years, but I’m wondering if US dollar ETFs are even more preferable, considering that I’ve already got some US cash ready to deploy.

Thanks for clearing up my confusion!

Q: Greetings Peter and company,

Having been a do it yourself investor for over 50 years and a committed index ETF investor for the last 10, I am very impressed with what you are doing.

Assume that investors put half their money into a US index ETF (say SPY) and the other half into a US money market fund. They re-balance when the ratio changes by 10% in either direction and withdraw 1% quarterly to cover living expenses. Will this no-brainer portfolio grow over the next decade? Will it equal or even outperform the i5 Growth Model Portfolio? (Projected 12% annualized long term return. Since the bottom of 2008, the S&P 500 has had a 14.5% annualized return.)

I would appreciate your views on this. Your responses, as far as I have seen, have been uniformly thoughtful.

Thank you.

Milan

Q: Portfolio Managers are saying US Stocks are expensive and they are buying Europe and Emerging Markets. What about Canada ? Is the uncertainty regarding US Tariffs holding TSE back ? DOW is hitting New Highs . We are not ? Is it also because we are a commodity economy. Are we just out of favour until world economies start to show growth which will drive commodities higher ? Oil also seems range bound $ 40.00 - $ 50.00 Not good for Canada !
RAK

Q: I have a large investment in VFV and would appreciate your opinion if I should sell my position in favor of VSP S&P 500 hedged? With thanks, Bill

Q: Hello 5i team,
I greatly appreciate your response to my question regarding the effect of a recession in a 74 year old’s RRIF portfolio. I retain from your response the following:
Asset allocation: one third of my retirement income comes from CPP, OAS and a very small defined benefit pension; one can’t have a better fixed income vehicle as that!
Cash: it currently stands at 6.5% of my RRIF portfolio; I’d like to increase it to around 12% or the equivalent of 2 years of minimum withdrawals.
Quality companies and Diversification: I currently hold the following companies; they are listed in alphabetical order and I would appreciate to know how you would rank them within their sector
Consumer cyclical (6.6% of portfolio) CGX, LNR/MG, TOY
Consumer non-cyclical (7.6%) ATD.B, DOL, PBH
Energy (8.4%) ENB, KEY, PKI, TOU, VET, WCP
Financial (8.7%) AIF, BNS, ECN, SLF, TD
Health (3.1%) CRH, GUD, PLI; thinking of replacing CRH and PLI with ZUH
Industrials (11.7%) BYD.UN, CNR, NFI, SIS, STN/WSP; where would CAE fit?
Materials (9.5%) AEM, CCL.B, MX, SJ
Technology (22.8%) CLS, CSU, DSG, ENGH, GIB.A, KXS, MDA, OTC, PHO, SHOP
Real Estate (5.8%) CIGI, FSV, TCN
Telco (2.2%) BCE
Utilities (7.1%) AQN, BEP.UN, BIP.UN
There are 48 stocks; that is too much to handle for my hardening grey cells. Your ranking would help me identify which ones to eventually sell.
Please deduct as many credits as you wish.
Kind regards,
Antoine

Q: Good morning Peter et al. I have $68K in a rrsp and $80K In a cash account to invest. A full position in each account is $20K. Time frame is 3 to 5 years. I have full positions in other accounts of shop,pbh,gud,nfi,sis, and toy. My thought was to add Boyd, CAE in each. I also have 1/2 position in Photon. Can you give me some direction on what else to add other than going bluechip defensive.
Thanks in advance david