Investment Q&A

Q: After recent news/earnings and along the thinking that AI will not completely replace SAAS but work along side it and even provide positive tailwinds, do you think its time to rotate a bit more from hardware to software or proceed with caution still? I hold CLS, NVDA, NBIS, VRT in hardware and CSU,LMN,TOI,SPOT, SHOP,CRWD,BKNG,TRI in software. Also own GOOG. I'm trying to find the right balance. If we look at SOXX/IGV, are we going to see mean reversion back to the mean?

Also what part of the market or credit cycle do you think we are in? Mid to late cycle? Should we be more defensive or still slowly adding to growth names? Thanks!

Q: I am having trouble deciding between market weighted versus equal-weighted ETF's.

Is it true that equal weighted portfolios often have a higher Sharpe ratio (better risk-adjusted return) but exhibit higher volatility (roughly 10% more) than market-cap weighted ones?

Q: Thoughts on the latest sell off to financials and private equity. Now the AI fear is hitting credit card companies and people are saying two machines can transfer funds without needing credit cards. This is getting crazy as it seems no industry is immune to AI. Are we overreacting, or is the world as we know it going to dramatically change, in which case, what kinds of stocks do we need to keep? What sectors should we lighten up on? What sectors do the screaming buys lie?

Q: I enjoyed reading what you had recently written about HALO stocks. I always appreciate these insights - thank you! what percentage of one's total equity portfolio would you suggest one have in HALO stocks?

Q: Thank you for your answer to the question (copied below) that I asked a few days ago.

I wasn't so much asking about my own strategy, but whether you think such a strategy (moving some money out of tech and into the broader market) is a good move in the current climate.

NVDA and GOOG are part of the same theme. Do you think these are winners to be held on to, or whether trimming a bit to put in the broader market would be wise?


Question: Given that the market is broadening out and that I would like my portfolio to follow suit, I am thinking of switching half of my money in XUU, a market-cap weighted fund which makes up about 10% of my portfolio, to EQL, an S&P equal-weighted fund.

What would your opinion be on that?

Also, along the same line of thought, I'm considering trimming NVDIA and GOOG although the mere mention of it has my investing friends screaming "NO!". They understand the sentiment but think it's not the right time.

Answer: We think XUU is a solid fund, but if diversiifcation is a goal then we think EQL makes good sense. For example, XUU currently is about 42% tech. EQL is barely at 10%.

Q: Want to generate some cash in a RESP. overweight oil and gas in this fund. trying to decide what to sell. Do I trim a little from white cap, head water, and freehold or sell reits.

Q: Everyone, for the last two years i have sat and watched the market. Is that still the best strategy? Clayton

Q: The State of the Union address by Trump is on Feb 24th in the evening. The Supreme Court will release decisions on Feb 20, 24 and 25, and these are the last dates until July 2026. I predict they will wait until after the State of the Union address because Supreme Court judges attend the State of the Union, and they don't need Trump criticizing them in public and will release their decision on Feb 25th. If they decide the tariffs are unconstitutional, which sectors might be the winners?

Q: Just a comment, I'm sure I'm not alone in this situation. All down 30-45% in my TFSA. I hate it when it feels like everybody is wrong and you and a few others think you are right, or are we? It feels like Armagedon. Been there before. It's not fun but they now only represent 5% of my portfolio so I will survive but my TFSA will take a huge hit this year.

Q: Hello,
Stephen Harper, our past Prime Minister remarked recently that Canadians should not be complacent in the notion that post USMCA discussions we will go back to easy access to the US market. Are you able to comment on what independent investors should be taking from this and how to manage investment strategy accordingly? It would appear that there could be different layers to this worth considering, and also that a do-nothing solution should not be as reliable as it had been in the past. In fact, it seems that both past and present Prime Ministers are specifically saying that some anticipation of change is needed.

Q: For those interested in other HALO perspectives - the above podcast (Josh Brown-CNBC/Ritholtz) released a HALO episode earlier in the week.

Q: I hope I don't sound naive asking this question, but I keep hearing that proprietary data is something of a moat for TRI, and for companies like X, SPGI, and perhaps even businesses like yours.

What is to prevent an AI engine like Anthropic from simply buying a membership and then having access to that data with which to answer questions?

Q: Hi team,
Once again my portflio is tanking while the index just cruises along . I have names such as shop, Csu, Lmn, Toi , gsy, Rddt , png and other growth names all down between 4-10%. Canadian names as a group especially weak today . What’s your take on today’s market action? As of today are there any screaming buys out there ? I was thinking of adding on Shops earning drop or Csu .

Thanks ,
Shane

Q: I was reading the book "1929", I would like to know what you think was the one biggest main reason for the crash?

Do you think it could happen again?

If you're an optimist you'll say no & if you're a pessimist you'll say yes or maybe.

Thank you.

Q: I believe and you can correct me if I'm wrong but many software names in both the US and CAD e.g. TRI, SHOP, NOW have reported fairly good results yet nobody wants to own them at least for the moment. So, if good results do not change the narrative what do you think changes this negative perception? And what in general would be a floor for multiples on some these names?

Q: Everyone, if a person has a growth portfolio, 25 stocks, how many stocks would have a negative return in a given year. I assume not everyone goes up each year. Clayton

Q: Do you feel that the international markets can continue to produce the returns that they have in the last year. If you look at S. Korea, Mexico, Brazil, Europe, Emg. Markets, these ETFs have outperformed the US market by HOME RUNS.
Thanks Again

Q: If you believe that the AI bubble will burst this year how might you position your portfolio to profit? I imagine picking defensive names, not owning companies with direct AI exposure, and owning precious metals is a start. If the bubble burst I would assume this would trigger a broader market selloff so not sure if there is a lot of places to hide. Would you consider any Put option strategies? Are there any other sectors/companies that would actually benefit from the bubble bursting? Thanks

Q: Which 10 Canadian or US companies are most attractive for a +5 year hold? In order ideally

Also, what one thing is worrying you most about current market conditions? And why

Thank you

Q: I was watching Blake Hilgemann talk about his 'descent' portfolio which he says has a safe 6% withdrawal rate for retirement vs the standard 4%. It's made up of 15% gold, 15% LT Bonds, 10% Utilities, 10% Real Estate, 20% Large cap stocks, 20% small cap value stocks, and 10% international stocks. Wondering what your take is on this. Also not sure how one's house factors into this...is it part of the RE % (likely more than 10%).