Q: The US is threatening to impose Tariffs on China tomorrow. From what I understand this is mainly aimed at intellectual property. Do you anticipate a positive effect on patent holders if China reacts by paying royalties to them rather than paying the tariffs? If so what companies would likely benefit. In Canada I'm thinking Quarterhill might be an example but I suspect it may be too early to ask you for an opinion.
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Investment Q&A
Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.
Q: I have a general concern that I would appreciate your assessment regarding both the US and world economies. We have a US stock market that has been rising consistently for some time now. Bond yields are on the rise with increasing concerns about inflation. Now there is a threat of a major trade war as Trump considers placing significant tariffs on Chinese imports. This has been tried in the past (ie 1930) with dire consequences. Sure, US imports of tariffed goods decreased but so did exports as other companies struck back with their own tariffs. And if China, for example, sells less goods to the USA it will buy less raw materials from other countries affecting their economies.. So the risk is a major slow down in world economies. I would expect prices for many products in the US to rise substantially, due to Trump's insular view of how things work with increased pressure on inflation and bond rates. My concern is that all of this could result in a major recession next year. How do you view this situation? I would appreciate your thoughts and analysis. Thanks.
Q: 1:10 PM 3/19/2018
Hello Peter
I would appreciate it if Peter could answer this question as he has years of experience as a fund manager and I would respect his considered opinion....
We have a large Blue Chip dividend-growth income portfolio of Canadian stocks. It currently has unrealized gains of about 25% and has a dividend yield of 4.6%. We run this equity portfolio like a private pension fund for ourselves.
We are quite aware that a major market "correction" or crash will come sometime in the next year or so and would like to position the equity part of our portfolio for that event. There are really only three options that we can see.
OPTION 1. Sell all our stocks and go to Treasury bills and 2 to 5 year Government Bonds, for a yield of about 2 to 2.5% in interest income. We would be giving up a 4.6% dividend income stream in exchange for a 2.5% interest income and lose the advantage of the dividend tax credit. Additionally we would be hit with a massive taxable capital gain pushing us well into the topmost tax bracket.
OPTION 2. Do Nothing. If during the crash our stocks dropped 50% in price it wouldn't matter as we would plan to neither sell nor buy any more shares up until and during the crash. If as a worst case scenario, dividends were cut by 50% on all our shares [most unlikely] then our dividend income yield would still be 2.3%, and with the Dividend tax credit would still beat the 2.5% interest income we would be getting if we had sold all our stocks and switched to short-term bonds and bills as in Option 1.
So if we choose Option 2 and ride out the market crash fully invested, then we are no worse off for income than choosing Option 1 and selling out and going to "cash", and we don't get hit with a massive capital gain tax bill.
OPTION 3. As in Option 2, sell no stocks in our Cash accounts but sell everything in our 2 RRIFs, and 2 TGIFs which together amount to about 10% of the overall portfolio. We could sell all the shares in them easily at any time at virtually no cost in our discount brokerage, park the money in GICs and no capital gains taxes would be payable at all. The proceeds would be ready for buying blue chip dividend-growth yielders when the time seemed right.
In simplest terms the object is to preserve capital as much as possible while at the same time allowing withdrawal of a reasonable predictable income.
What did Dividend Aristocrat type portfolio fund managers, or Pension Fund Managers Like Peter do in anticipation of the market correction in 2007 - stay invested, change asset allocations, become more defensive [how?], do sector rotation, adjusting allocations among the 11 TSX sectors - out of what and into what? Anything else?
If you, Peter were responsible as a portfolio fund manager for running our equity portfolio which is essentially a Canadian "Dividend Aristocrat" portfolio, how would you handle it in the years ahead considering the high probability of a major market correction/crash? Would you choose one of these options or would you have a different strategy?
Thank you.............Paul K
Hello Peter
I would appreciate it if Peter could answer this question as he has years of experience as a fund manager and I would respect his considered opinion....
We have a large Blue Chip dividend-growth income portfolio of Canadian stocks. It currently has unrealized gains of about 25% and has a dividend yield of 4.6%. We run this equity portfolio like a private pension fund for ourselves.
We are quite aware that a major market "correction" or crash will come sometime in the next year or so and would like to position the equity part of our portfolio for that event. There are really only three options that we can see.
OPTION 1. Sell all our stocks and go to Treasury bills and 2 to 5 year Government Bonds, for a yield of about 2 to 2.5% in interest income. We would be giving up a 4.6% dividend income stream in exchange for a 2.5% interest income and lose the advantage of the dividend tax credit. Additionally we would be hit with a massive taxable capital gain pushing us well into the topmost tax bracket.
OPTION 2. Do Nothing. If during the crash our stocks dropped 50% in price it wouldn't matter as we would plan to neither sell nor buy any more shares up until and during the crash. If as a worst case scenario, dividends were cut by 50% on all our shares [most unlikely] then our dividend income yield would still be 2.3%, and with the Dividend tax credit would still beat the 2.5% interest income we would be getting if we had sold all our stocks and switched to short-term bonds and bills as in Option 1.
So if we choose Option 2 and ride out the market crash fully invested, then we are no worse off for income than choosing Option 1 and selling out and going to "cash", and we don't get hit with a massive capital gain tax bill.
OPTION 3. As in Option 2, sell no stocks in our Cash accounts but sell everything in our 2 RRIFs, and 2 TGIFs which together amount to about 10% of the overall portfolio. We could sell all the shares in them easily at any time at virtually no cost in our discount brokerage, park the money in GICs and no capital gains taxes would be payable at all. The proceeds would be ready for buying blue chip dividend-growth yielders when the time seemed right.
In simplest terms the object is to preserve capital as much as possible while at the same time allowing withdrawal of a reasonable predictable income.
What did Dividend Aristocrat type portfolio fund managers, or Pension Fund Managers Like Peter do in anticipation of the market correction in 2007 - stay invested, change asset allocations, become more defensive [how?], do sector rotation, adjusting allocations among the 11 TSX sectors - out of what and into what? Anything else?
If you, Peter were responsible as a portfolio fund manager for running our equity portfolio which is essentially a Canadian "Dividend Aristocrat" portfolio, how would you handle it in the years ahead considering the high probability of a major market correction/crash? Would you choose one of these options or would you have a different strategy?
Thank you.............Paul K
Q: good morning, I would appreciate your opinions concerning the canadian dollar and if it should get into the sixty cent range and the impact on our stock market ? thanks
Q: What are your views on the Toronto housing prices going forward (12-24 months) ? I am more looking for your gut feeling than a detailed analysis. Thank you.
Q: I notice that the recent US corporate tax reduction is enhancing the earnings of Canadian companies that operate divisions in the US. It appears these tax changes may not have been factored into earning estimates.
One cfo told me that the effective corporate tax rate should decrease 3% going forward.
Equally as important, having an operating company in the US gives a company more flexibility to structure operations/source product more efficiently, leaving more profit in the US without the incremental tax cost.
One cfo told me that the effective corporate tax rate should decrease 3% going forward.
Equally as important, having an operating company in the US gives a company more flexibility to structure operations/source product more efficiently, leaving more profit in the US without the incremental tax cost.
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Premium Brands Holdings Corporation (PBH $90.51)
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Savaria Corporation (SIS $20.04)
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Sleep Country Canada Holdings Inc. (ZZZ $34.99)
Q: Hi!
I'm concerned about the potential for a looming recession in the context of increasing interest rates, especially in the US. As a way to hedge against increasing interest rates and to protect against downside risk, I was wondering if you could recommend some high growth, high dividend paying stocks, US or Canada?
Thanks!
I'm concerned about the potential for a looming recession in the context of increasing interest rates, especially in the US. As a way to hedge against increasing interest rates and to protect against downside risk, I was wondering if you could recommend some high growth, high dividend paying stocks, US or Canada?
Thanks!
Q: Given the recent volatility in the US I am wondering about portfolio insurance in the short term. While holding cash is one way to mitigate a drop, I don't really want to hold much more than I currently do so I'm wondering if HIU would be a good way or if there is some other strategy you might suggest. I hear many comments about more significant declines, with the trade issues that are currently occupying a lot of political talk, raising rates, and, if the Dow gets back up to the 26,000 level that could be a double top, all of which make me nervous.
So, since I am a long term investor, rather that take profits and raise more cash, what would you do for some short term downside portfolio insurance? Thanks
So, since I am a long term investor, rather that take profits and raise more cash, what would you do for some short term downside portfolio insurance? Thanks
Q: The latest Liberal budget seems determined to put the nail in the coffin for Canada's economic future.
Some points from the Financial Post: “Declining business investment remains a critical concern for Canada, which is a signal that entrepreneurs, investors and business owners don’t see the country as a hospitable place to do business. From the end of 2014 to the latest quarter with data, the level of (non-residential) business investment in the country declined by 19 per cent, after accounting for inflation. Among a group of 17 industrialized countries, Canada now has the second-lowest level of business investment as a share of GDP.”
Your thoughts?
What is the mood of investors and business owners that you have spoken with?
http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/morneau-delivers-a-budget-in-deep-denial-about-the-dangerous-territory-were-in
Some points from the Financial Post: “Declining business investment remains a critical concern for Canada, which is a signal that entrepreneurs, investors and business owners don’t see the country as a hospitable place to do business. From the end of 2014 to the latest quarter with data, the level of (non-residential) business investment in the country declined by 19 per cent, after accounting for inflation. Among a group of 17 industrialized countries, Canada now has the second-lowest level of business investment as a share of GDP.”
Your thoughts?
What is the mood of investors and business owners that you have spoken with?
http://business.financialpost.com/opinion/morneau-delivers-a-budget-in-deep-denial-about-the-dangerous-territory-were-in
Q: Is the correction over? If yes, technically when did it end? I know the technical correction start time; what technical event declares a correction has ended?
Many thanks for this, Elmer
Many thanks for this, Elmer
Q: Hi Peter and Team - I know this question is a little outside of the regular type of question/answer component of your services and that you are not in the business of predicting macro economic events. However am just wondering if you have any thoughts on how interest rates may play out over the next couple of years both in Canada and the U.S. With the tax reform package now passed in Congress is it quite possible that this could lead to fairly major inflationary pressures in the U.S. and therefore substantial interest rate increases. If so then what might be the effect on Canada's interest rates and resulting stock market movements. Thanks.
Q: Hi,
I am wondering what would be a good template to go by in terms of how much of an overall portfolio should be Canadian ,how much in US,international and emerging markets.
For example would you Suggest 60 % be in Canadian equity or bonds, 20 % US, 10% international and 10 % emerging markets .
I look forward to reading your suggestion on this.
Thanks so much,
Susan
I am wondering what would be a good template to go by in terms of how much of an overall portfolio should be Canadian ,how much in US,international and emerging markets.
For example would you Suggest 60 % be in Canadian equity or bonds, 20 % US, 10% international and 10 % emerging markets .
I look forward to reading your suggestion on this.
Thanks so much,
Susan
Q: What do you see as the best strategy to benefit from downturns like what we’ve seen lately. Is it just make sure you always have cash to deploy when one happens or is there some stock/fund that is average most of the time but really benefits from the pull backs somehow?
Q: Just as the financial crisis has resulted in identification of banks which are "too big to fail", what, in your opinion would be the consequences if a computer trading program were to be identified as one that is either "market moving or trend prolongation". Would the average retail investor not be on a more equal trading position if those computer were made to make public those events which trigger their buy and sell? If we all decided to jump on the exact same trade, there would be no winners and losers . If AI computer trading accounts for more and more of the trades then, short of the individual investor pulling completely out of the stock market, how does one have any confidence in their own investment thesis?
Q: I have been wondering for some time about market valuations and your recent comment about inflation being bad for markets has raised it again for me. If a market is doing reasonably well and inflation sets in could there be a reset of stock valuations. If so what sectors could get re-evaluated and is it across the board in a given sector or specific to certain size market caps?
Thank you
Clarence
Thank you
Clarence
Q: could you please comment on todays decline in both the tsx and dow any reasons why and is this a correction or a sign of things to come thankyou
Q: Can you help with secor allocation for 2018. Realise that the allocation will vary depending on factors such as risk tolerance, age etc. Just seeking your thoughts on reasonable ranges for allocation with a view to tweaking our investments. Thank you as always for your much appreciated assistance.
Q: Hi 5-i:
I read somewhere that the volumes in the stock markets are generally highest at the open and near the close , because etf's are investing any
overages. Any truth in this? Could I assume that this is a good time or
bad time to trade. When in your opinion is the ideal time of day, if any?
Thanks,
BEN.
I read somewhere that the volumes in the stock markets are generally highest at the open and near the close , because etf's are investing any
overages. Any truth in this? Could I assume that this is a good time or
bad time to trade. When in your opinion is the ideal time of day, if any?
Thanks,
BEN.
Q: The stock market performance of the TSE for 2017 was poor compared to other world stock markets including the USA. Do you expect more of the same and if so, what major world exchanges would you invest in 2018. With thanks, Bill
Q: Any particular reason the markets fell so much on Monday? Do you think this is the start of a larger trend or market correction?