Q: Hi, I'm seeing what appears to be rather large moves in these two stocks, so am wondering what I'm missing. Or are these sorts of daily movements going to be the "new normal" going forward? I'd like to hear your thoughts - thanks and keep up the great work!
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Investment Q&A
Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.
Q: For now, investors seem to have decided to fade the chaos of Trumpenomics. However, one has to wonder how long the massive contradictions will be ignored.
Scott Bessent (Treasury), the man who wrote the report that identified the contradictions in the UK economy that made George Soros $billions, certainly must see the dangers, and yet, he is the source of one of the major contradictions, when he says the Fed shouldn’t lower rates while Trump demands the opposite.
Is Fed independence under attack and how will investors read this?
Are tariffs, as claimed, for revenue or to reduce imports? They can’t be both.
But if the tax cuts are to be permanent, $3 trillion in revenue has to be found somewhere.
Will Trump let a gnat like the Parliamentarian, or the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stand in his way?
If, at some point, investors focus on the issues around tariffs-as-revenue, or threats to Fed independence they may begin to worry, and decide to sell equities.
The cost to hedge against such an event would be prohibitively expense given one wouldn’t know whether or when it would occur.
I’m sure 5i is considering these issues, but here is what I am pondering. How does an investor with a large equity portfolio manage this kind of risk? Would growth stocks be hardest hit? Are etfs better than individual stocks? What defensive stocks are likely least affected? Are there equities that would do well in such a scenario? How would bonds perform?
Scott Bessent (Treasury), the man who wrote the report that identified the contradictions in the UK economy that made George Soros $billions, certainly must see the dangers, and yet, he is the source of one of the major contradictions, when he says the Fed shouldn’t lower rates while Trump demands the opposite.
Is Fed independence under attack and how will investors read this?
Are tariffs, as claimed, for revenue or to reduce imports? They can’t be both.
But if the tax cuts are to be permanent, $3 trillion in revenue has to be found somewhere.
Will Trump let a gnat like the Parliamentarian, or the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stand in his way?
If, at some point, investors focus on the issues around tariffs-as-revenue, or threats to Fed independence they may begin to worry, and decide to sell equities.
The cost to hedge against such an event would be prohibitively expense given one wouldn’t know whether or when it would occur.
I’m sure 5i is considering these issues, but here is what I am pondering. How does an investor with a large equity portfolio manage this kind of risk? Would growth stocks be hardest hit? Are etfs better than individual stocks? What defensive stocks are likely least affected? Are there equities that would do well in such a scenario? How would bonds perform?
Q: In the context of the sector allocations question asked by Jerry today, you gave the Utilities sector a weight of 20%. Is this really what you meant? It seems pretty high to me. Besides, when we add all the sectors, the sum is 110%. Thank you
Q: Hi Peter and Team,
I’m a very pleased user of Portfolio Analytics, as well as 5i of course.
Till now, I never changed my allocations using “Custom Allocations”. Previously, I used one of the suggested allocations.
In this era of tariffs, I fear they will throw a monkey wrench into our economy as well as in the US. For example, even though tariffs on steel and aluminum aren’t yet in place, some Canadian firms have already lost orders. “The threat of tariffs is, in itself, a tariff”.
As an example, you recently responded to a member’s question and suggested that the Industrial sector could/would be vulnerable to tariffs.
Please suggest “Trump-proof” sector weightings that takes into account the uncertainty that is rampant with Trump 2.0.
Thanks as always for you assistance in helping us to make informed decisions.
I’m a very pleased user of Portfolio Analytics, as well as 5i of course.
Till now, I never changed my allocations using “Custom Allocations”. Previously, I used one of the suggested allocations.
In this era of tariffs, I fear they will throw a monkey wrench into our economy as well as in the US. For example, even though tariffs on steel and aluminum aren’t yet in place, some Canadian firms have already lost orders. “The threat of tariffs is, in itself, a tariff”.
As an example, you recently responded to a member’s question and suggested that the Industrial sector could/would be vulnerable to tariffs.
Please suggest “Trump-proof” sector weightings that takes into account the uncertainty that is rampant with Trump 2.0.
Thanks as always for you assistance in helping us to make informed decisions.
Q: With the uncertainty ahead is it time to reduce the industrial holdings first , and then financials if the tariffs kick in?
Q: With Tariffs coming in USA Inflation will be headed higher. No hope for J Powell to reduce rates. This is not good for stock Market that wants lower rates. Your Thoughts ? RAK
Q: Any suggestions on how to "Trump-proof" one's portfolio?
Q: Dear 5i Team:
I always enjoy your 5 from 5i section. Usually contain at least one if not more thought provoking articles and help me to understand the BIG picture better.
First a non-question! Who in the team "curates" these articles?! Thee is some consistency here.
From Ritzhold's article: Based on their take on opportunities, what are the stocks/sectors you would suggest? Financials? Stocks that will benefit from inflation!! Energy. I couldn't "decode" this article into actionable ideas.
I always enjoy your 5 from 5i section. Usually contain at least one if not more thought provoking articles and help me to understand the BIG picture better.
First a non-question! Who in the team "curates" these articles?! Thee is some consistency here.
From Ritzhold's article: Based on their take on opportunities, what are the stocks/sectors you would suggest? Financials? Stocks that will benefit from inflation!! Energy. I couldn't "decode" this article into actionable ideas.
Q: Hi Peter and Team,
I notice that you often state that stocks did well under Trump's first term.
With all due respect, Trump 2.0 is, in my own view and the view of many others, Trump 2.0 is a different 'kettle of fish' than Trump 1.0. One needs only to look at both Canadian and US media to see the complete chaos that Trump is causing on both sides of the border.
Thanks.
I notice that you often state that stocks did well under Trump's first term.
With all due respect, Trump 2.0 is, in my own view and the view of many others, Trump 2.0 is a different 'kettle of fish' than Trump 1.0. One needs only to look at both Canadian and US media to see the complete chaos that Trump is causing on both sides of the border.
Thanks.
Q: Hi,
I read with great interest Lisa and Peter’s questions and your answers on Feb. 10 about Trump, US holdings and economic warfare.
Given Trump is now making noises about how some US debt could be fraudulent, and the US may not owe as much as the Treasury reports, I see new risks.
For instance, as part of his economic warfare against Canada, could he by the stroke of a pen declare Canadian held US debt is fraudulent to put pressure on Canada to become the 51st state? Further, could he freeze Canadian held assets in the US (securities, real estate, business assets, etc.) to further pressure Canada?
Along Lisa’s line of thought, does it indeed make sense to sell some US assets and re-buy in Canada?
Final question: if I hold US cash in a US dollar account in a Canadian domiciled bank, is it safe from Trump’s potential ravages?
(Please take multiple credits.)
Thank you, Michael
I read with great interest Lisa and Peter’s questions and your answers on Feb. 10 about Trump, US holdings and economic warfare.
Given Trump is now making noises about how some US debt could be fraudulent, and the US may not owe as much as the Treasury reports, I see new risks.
For instance, as part of his economic warfare against Canada, could he by the stroke of a pen declare Canadian held US debt is fraudulent to put pressure on Canada to become the 51st state? Further, could he freeze Canadian held assets in the US (securities, real estate, business assets, etc.) to further pressure Canada?
Along Lisa’s line of thought, does it indeed make sense to sell some US assets and re-buy in Canada?
Final question: if I hold US cash in a US dollar account in a Canadian domiciled bank, is it safe from Trump’s potential ravages?
(Please take multiple credits.)
Thank you, Michael
Q: I am a 78 year old investor and have been in the stock market for about 50years. As you are aware, that will be many ups and downs. I have yet to witness the recent turmoil caused by Trump which an analyst referred to 'a staggering level' of chaos.
There have been a 'staggering' series of bluster about tariffs affecting the lives of North Americans. I think I have an idea to soothe your younger investors. Who comes to mind when you read the lyrics to a song from the musical/movie 'Chicago' sung so well by Richard Gere?
"Give'em the old dazzle dazzle
Razzle Dazzle 'em
Give'em the old hocus pocus
Give'em the old film flam flummox
Give'em the old three ring circus
Stun and stagger'em
When you're in trouble go in to your dance
Long as you keep'em off balance
How can they spot you've got no talent
And they'll make you a star!
How can they hear the truth above the roar?"
I just finished reading the 5i recommended book "The Psychology of Money" by Morgan House. Timeless lessons on wealth. greed and happiness. It was while reading the section on greed I thought of Trump and Musk and Razzle Dazzle'em.
There have been a 'staggering' series of bluster about tariffs affecting the lives of North Americans. I think I have an idea to soothe your younger investors. Who comes to mind when you read the lyrics to a song from the musical/movie 'Chicago' sung so well by Richard Gere?
"Give'em the old dazzle dazzle
Razzle Dazzle 'em
Give'em the old hocus pocus
Give'em the old film flam flummox
Give'em the old three ring circus
Stun and stagger'em
When you're in trouble go in to your dance
Long as you keep'em off balance
How can they spot you've got no talent
And they'll make you a star!
How can they hear the truth above the roar?"
I just finished reading the 5i recommended book "The Psychology of Money" by Morgan House. Timeless lessons on wealth. greed and happiness. It was while reading the section on greed I thought of Trump and Musk and Razzle Dazzle'em.
Q: I am a retired investor and am concerned of the current state of the Markets in Canada and US.
While we go back and forth on tariffs one thing is becoming clear, the next four years will be filled with uncertainty and disruption. I am hopeful that common sense will prevail and we can move forward in a positive and productive manner, but who knows!!
Given the uncertainty around the current markets and another deadline in 30 days, is there sectors that you would avoid right now or lighten up on? How should investors prepare for this period of uncertainty?
Thank you
Tim
While we go back and forth on tariffs one thing is becoming clear, the next four years will be filled with uncertainty and disruption. I am hopeful that common sense will prevail and we can move forward in a positive and productive manner, but who knows!!
Given the uncertainty around the current markets and another deadline in 30 days, is there sectors that you would avoid right now or lighten up on? How should investors prepare for this period of uncertainty?
Thank you
Tim
Q: With some dry powder available, would you suggest to buy now or wait for the tarrifs with China to shake out and see what comes of the 30 day pause with Can/Mex? All buys are with long term hold in mind.
Q: Our loonie is taking a dramatic free fall. What strategies do you favour for value preservation if one holds a sizeable cash position?
Q: Hi, I - along with many other Canadians I'm sure, have been watching the USD climb. It looks to be heading back up to test the recent all time highs, and I am wondering if you could shed light on how the value of the USD will affect the market. As well as if there is a tipping point, at which the value also starts to hurt the US economy, etc. My limited understanding is that if the USD climbs, stocks go down. Your thoughts on this would be appreciated! Thanks!
Q: I have been trying to get my head around what will happen with Trump's war against Canada. I have tended towards devastation to the Canadian economy and as such have shifted some investments to the US and taken a 25% cash position at least until we get some clarity on the situation. I would really like to get an understanding of just how devastating it would be. Assuming Trump does put a 25% tariff on Canadian goods just how bad does 5I think things could get . Unemployment numbers ? How deep a recession ? How or even can we weather the storm ? .... And any other thoughts you may have if we get the full brunt of a 25% tariff ? .....
I have been questioning my fears simply because Mr Canadian Market is so far not panicking { but I am } ......
I have been questioning my fears simply because Mr Canadian Market is so far not panicking { but I am } ......
Q: Hello, I have a few questions on tariffs.
With the anticipation of Tariffs, what sector would you recommend we are to stay invested in
Also. Do you think the Tariffs will last long .? If no, why? And lastly, do you think the market will drop by 5,10,20% given tariffs
Thanks
With the anticipation of Tariffs, what sector would you recommend we are to stay invested in
Also. Do you think the Tariffs will last long .? If no, why? And lastly, do you think the market will drop by 5,10,20% given tariffs
Thanks
Q: Good Morning
Can you please list the following sectors from the most vulnerable to the least affected by Trump's tariffs ? Please deduct as many credits as required. Thank you again for your insight.
Banks
Insurance Companies
REITS
Staples
Communication Services
Utilities
Pipelines
Discretionary
Technology
Energy
Materials
Industrials
Can you please list the following sectors from the most vulnerable to the least affected by Trump's tariffs ? Please deduct as many credits as required. Thank you again for your insight.
Banks
Insurance Companies
REITS
Staples
Communication Services
Utilities
Pipelines
Discretionary
Technology
Energy
Materials
Industrials
-
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU $62.27)
-
Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP $9.63)
-
Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd. (TVE $5.08)
-
TerraVest Industries Inc. (TVK $166.47)
Q: Hi,
These are my energy holdings with TOU 2.7%, TVE 0.61% and WCP 0.48%. They've pretty much been flat for the last three years. Other than the dividends and special div's that TOU pay, what is the thesis for holding or adding to energy currently? I know valuations are low, but what will be the catalyst to get them moving again other than higher energy prices? I have TVK as well at a 3.9% holding and have included that in my energy allocation as well and its been a big winner. Looking at opportunity costs here from holding these energy names vs other names.
Thanks!
These are my energy holdings with TOU 2.7%, TVE 0.61% and WCP 0.48%. They've pretty much been flat for the last three years. Other than the dividends and special div's that TOU pay, what is the thesis for holding or adding to energy currently? I know valuations are low, but what will be the catalyst to get them moving again other than higher energy prices? I have TVK as well at a 3.9% holding and have included that in my energy allocation as well and its been a big winner. Looking at opportunity costs here from holding these energy names vs other names.
Thanks!
Q: Hi - have some dry powder available to be able to invest. We're close enough to the orange-man implementing tariffs that I'm going to wait and see what happens next week before deploying. I'm guessing any decline in stocks will be felt more in Canada than the US, but I"m wondering what you think might take a hit and what Cdn & US companies you might look at buying should the market have a healthy pullback. Probably better to ask if/when things sell off, but I'm just trying to prep my shopping list. Thx.