Investment Q&A

Q: A lot of banter back and forth and possibly a trade war that could even go Global if it happens .
Can you give me a list of stocks that could be hit the hardest if this happens?

Q: Ian Harnett of Absolute Strategy has talked about Canada being one of the countries most likely to experience severe financial crisis, due to the (high) house price to income ratios. We've been hearing about a decline in housing prices for years but it doesn't happen. But assuming a collapse in house prices WERE to occur, what sectors of the Canadian economy (if any) would be least affected ?

Q: I am new to 5i. My question pertains to portfolio management within 5i portfolios.

I have read your paper on when to sell a security - it is an interesting article. I am wondering if you have a similar paper on when to buy a security? Members who joined at inception have benefited by your portfolios. I am following your BE portfolio and have slowly transitioned my exiting portfolio to resemble your BE portfolio. At the end of last quarter I purchased AIF, ENB, WSP, SJ, SLF, KXS, COV and VB. With the exception of WSP all are underwater.

I have read enough of your posts to gather you avoid market timing and instead take a long view of five or more years. The markets in the USA are late cycle, rising rates, inflation and global tensions are front and center. On several occasions you recommend members raise cash to protect against market downturns however your BE portfolio has a 3% cash weighting .

My question is - do you have a paper on when to purchase securities you have deemed worthy of purchase and how should members raise cash within your portfolios?

Thank you

Q: There's lots of chatter about a secular rotation out of stocks and into bonds. The US 10 year treasury bond has crossed over 3% and lots of speculation about more interest rate increases coming from the Fed. I've seen declines in my bond proxies (REITS, Utilities, Pipelines, Infrastructure, etc.) over the past few weeks but in recent days lots of talk from talking heads and analysts suggesting that the market has peaked and could be time to rotate. What is 5I's position?

Carl

Q: what do you think of david rosenbergs column in todays globe, why this rise in interest rates has me very concerned.
personally i think he is far more correct than wrong.
and please do not answer with for every viewpoint there is an opposing view.
rosenberg backs up his article with facts. dave

Q: Hi Peter
Recently several high profile investment advisors have predicted an "eminent crash" in the markets. Any suggestions on how to protect oneself in these uncertain times. Do you believe a crash is eminent.
Thanks.
Cam

Q: In a well diversified portfolio which one of these three companies would you choose for a long-term hold and with a view of an increased probability for a recession by the end of 2019? Can you please comment on your investment rationale?
Thanks

Q: Hi Peter,

With the TSX not doing much in recent months, are there any sectors in it that are starting to look good? Any sectors that could see some positive movement in the near future? Any recommendations in those sectors? I'm looking for growth with medium to high risk.

Thanks as always. Please deduct as many credits as appropriate.

Q: I know you are not a fan of market timing. However, with all the action coming from the Mueller investigation of Trump I can't help but digest and interpret the news as a tightening of the noose around Trumps neck. I've gone to 20% cash and might not be done yet. I've committed to sitting here until Mueller resolves one way or the other.

My question is how have markets reacted during previous impeachments (eg. Nixon, Clinton)? Obviously negatively, but to what degree and for how long? Would international equities be less effected?

Best.

Q: I've noticed very divergent opinions on the future of the Canadian dollar versus other currencies. My own opinion is it's headed down but, as you know, these things are difficult to predict especially when unknown political decisions can suddenly change things. Do you have opinions in this area? How do you anticipate the Canadian dollar will perform versus the US dollar, the Euro, the Pound, etc? Do you make recommendations regarding the amount of foreign exposure in investment portfolios based on forex implications. If so, where (US, European, emerging markets, etc.) and what percentage?
Feel free to choose your own time periods if you feel able to answer this.

Q: I was wondering what your thoughts are on using Put Options to protect a portfolio in the event of a market crash?
Thanks, Bill

Q: Is Canada closed for business while we wait for NAFTA results ? Not building Pipelines is a negative for investment in Canada. The tree hugger's seem to be in control of our Natural Resources. The First Nations are directing Mr Trudeau. as to development.of our Natural Resources How do international Investors view Canada as a place ti invest ?
Are these Investors avoiding Canada ? RAK.

Q: Hello,

In your opinion, why does the TSX continue to underperform compared to the majority of markets around the world? What do we need to do to fix this?

Regards,

Robert

Q: Dennis Gartman has boldly declared a new bear market. What do you make of this opinion?

Assuming the market might decline for a good while, would you still recommend owning growth stocks like SIS, PHO, KXS, etc? How would you suggest positioning a portfolio to preserve capital during a bear market, but also take advantage of any opportunities? Thanks.

Q: Dow up 700... Tsx flat..the world has stopped investing in Canada leaving it up to us to finance our companies..
Do we not have any profitable companies or assets worth investing in from a global prospective?. Even our own investors seem to be shunning any new investment in the stock market...When was the last time the countries stock exchanges were diverging as they are currently and what do you see are the fundamental problems?

Q: Financial stocks of every type are getting hammered again today, as they were yesterday. Everything from banks to insurance companies to credit cards and payment processors in both the US and Canada are down between 5-10% in the last two days. Can you draw a line for me on how the possibility of trade disruption between the US and China could account for this? Is Bank of America really worth 9% less today than Wednesday because of Trump's trade tariffs or this just mindless "sell everything!" panic?

Q: Assuming the current spat with China escalates into a full blown trade war, which securities would you advise taking shelter in, and which ones would get hit the hardest? I realize that’s a broad question, but are there any stocks in particular that come to mind as ones to avoid/buy, especially among the prominent names in US industrials, tech & consumer sectors? Are there sectors you would avoid completely? If rates are set to rise, would it be unwise to take refuge in utilities and other defensives? Thanks very much.

Q: The US is threatening to impose Tariffs on China tomorrow. From what I understand this is mainly aimed at intellectual property. Do you anticipate a positive effect on patent holders if China reacts by paying royalties to them rather than paying the tariffs? If so what companies would likely benefit. In Canada I'm thinking Quarterhill might be an example but I suspect it may be too early to ask you for an opinion.

Q: I have a general concern that I would appreciate your assessment regarding both the US and world economies. We have a US stock market that has been rising consistently for some time now. Bond yields are on the rise with increasing concerns about inflation. Now there is a threat of a major trade war as Trump considers placing significant tariffs on Chinese imports. This has been tried in the past (ie 1930) with dire consequences. Sure, US imports of tariffed goods decreased but so did exports as other companies struck back with their own tariffs. And if China, for example, sells less goods to the USA it will buy less raw materials from other countries affecting their economies.. So the risk is a major slow down in world economies. I would expect prices for many products in the US to rise substantially, due to Trump's insular view of how things work with increased pressure on inflation and bond rates. My concern is that all of this could result in a major recession next year. How do you view this situation? I would appreciate your thoughts and analysis. Thanks.

Q: 1:10 PM 3/19/2018
Hello Peter
I would appreciate it if Peter could answer this question as he has years of experience as a fund manager and I would respect his considered opinion....

We have a large Blue Chip dividend-growth income portfolio of Canadian stocks. It currently has unrealized gains of about 25% and has a dividend yield of 4.6%. We run this equity portfolio like a private pension fund for ourselves.

We are quite aware that a major market "correction" or crash will come sometime in the next year or so and would like to position the equity part of our portfolio for that event. There are really only three options that we can see.

OPTION 1. Sell all our stocks and go to Treasury bills and 2 to 5 year Government Bonds, for a yield of about 2 to 2.5% in interest income. We would be giving up a 4.6% dividend income stream in exchange for a 2.5% interest income and lose the advantage of the dividend tax credit. Additionally we would be hit with a massive taxable capital gain pushing us well into the topmost tax bracket.

OPTION 2. Do Nothing. If during the crash our stocks dropped 50% in price it wouldn't matter as we would plan to neither sell nor buy any more shares up until and during the crash. If as a worst case scenario, dividends were cut by 50% on all our shares [most unlikely] then our dividend income yield would still be 2.3%, and with the Dividend tax credit would still beat the 2.5% interest income we would be getting if we had sold all our stocks and switched to short-term bonds and bills as in Option 1.

So if we choose Option 2 and ride out the market crash fully invested, then we are no worse off for income than choosing Option 1 and selling out and going to "cash", and we don't get hit with a massive capital gain tax bill.

OPTION 3. As in Option 2, sell no stocks in our Cash accounts but sell everything in our 2 RRIFs, and 2 TGIFs which together amount to about 10% of the overall portfolio. We could sell all the shares in them easily at any time at virtually no cost in our discount brokerage, park the money in GICs and no capital gains taxes would be payable at all. The proceeds would be ready for buying blue chip dividend-growth yielders when the time seemed right.

In simplest terms the object is to preserve capital as much as possible while at the same time allowing withdrawal of a reasonable predictable income.

What did Dividend Aristocrat type portfolio fund managers, or Pension Fund Managers Like Peter do in anticipation of the market correction in 2007 - stay invested, change asset allocations, become more defensive [how?], do sector rotation, adjusting allocations among the 11 TSX sectors - out of what and into what? Anything else?

If you, Peter were responsible as a portfolio fund manager for running our equity portfolio which is essentially a Canadian "Dividend Aristocrat" portfolio, how would you handle it in the years ahead considering the high probability of a major market correction/crash? Would you choose one of these options or would you have a different strategy?

Thank you.............Paul K