Investment Q&A

Q: The CAD is gaining value vs. USD lately.Where do you expect it to peak in the foreseeable future ?...say 6 months
Thanks,
Jerald

Q: Hi Peter and Associates,

I hear some talk of tax selling as early as August? Some professionals speak of setting up their portfolios to avoid and/or to take advantage of year end tax selling pressures? Some sectors and/or specific stocks have seen modest to significant declines this year and risk seeing above average volumes of yearend tax loss selling?

Many experts do not suggest trying to time the market but also talk of good entry points to initiate a position if not starting with partial ones to begin. Then there are those who factor in seasonality or other technical indicators. Without wanting to sound pessimistic, more than a few guests on business programs express caution, have increased cash weighting to have dry powder in reserve.Markets are not seen as cheap but opinions vary as what to do?

Bottom line, market corrections are part of reality and one has not occurred in some time? What percentage cash might be viewed as a reasonable cushion for a middle of the road risk investor with a 65/35 (Equity/ Fixed Income) objective who would prefer to reduce equity exposure by building up some cash reserves at this time? What suggestions might you have in response to the above and specifically, what reduction in equity exposure might be reasonable and/or sufficient to have substance? Assume a 5% weight in gold forms part of the overall strategy and a sufficiently large portfolio to provide diversification and no over weightings within it.

Fundamentally, are there any specific strategies an investor might use or at least consider in the last months of any year and more specifically this year?

Thank you.

Mike

Q: Dear 5i
I look at the chart of the TSX and see that its been trending downward over the last 6 months or so while the S&P and DOW have been trending upwards over the same time period . My thought is that it might be a good time to invest in the TSX now as that downward trend is most likely to start to reverse upward and not invest in the DOW or S&P as that trend is likely to reverse downward . On the other hand 5i generally advocates investing into strength meaning investing the opposite to what i`m suggesting . The other thought of course is to invest equally amongst them all so diversified across the board . I know predicting the market is impossible but i still like to invest to some degree on probabilities .
Appreciate your thoughts .
Thanks
Bill C.

Q: I presently have no healthcare or tech holdings in either my RRSP, TFSA or cash. Am retired,like dividends, but can take some risk.

Looking at having 10% in each sector with HHL (50%),CSH.UN (25%),GUD(25%)in healthcare and TXF(50%),ABT(25%)PHO(25%) in tech.

What do you think of this approach and the individual holdings?

Where would you put each one ( RRSP,TFSA cash)?

Thanks Derek

Q: With the conflict that is on going with the U.S.A and North Korea is it better to have a wait and see attitude before putting anymore funds into the Stock Market. Thanks . Ernie

Q: Just comments.AIF-basing on better than expected Q2 revenue & eps,3 firms(TD,CF & RY) raised target price to $36 & upgraded stock.Reportedly best one day performance since 8/15 PKI-RY & BNS downgraded target price to $31 & $33.75 CGX-6 out of 7 firms downgraded to $46-$52.1st time in the last 3 years that Ellis Jacob is not that upbeat in interview on BNN after release of results. In this strong earnings season,strong results will be handsomely rewarded(eg AIF,SHOP,TOY),& vice versa.

Q: Hi Peter & team,
What would quantitive tightening do to the markets if the feds move ahead with that, and which investments would benefit the most?
Thanks!

Q: I have seen my investments total value in US stocks and non hedged ETFs going down lately, although individual stock price are doing OK.
I know it is very difficult to predict currency fluctuations, I would like your view and recommendation on how to protect my portfolio. Is buying hedged ETFs is the solution and what about your view on the Canadian dollar against the US $ and the Euro.
I value your opinion
Raouf

Q: What could make the TSX and NASDAQ drop over a hundred points in an hour at mid-day on no news?

Q: The 8% gain of the Cdn dollar over the past few weeks could have a huge impact on stocks like NFI and others in a negative way.
With the Cdn dollar on a terror lately what sectors if any would stand to gain from this currency move and what would be two individual stocks that you think could gain by the US/Cdn exchange rate moving closer to par.
Always appreciate your perspective.
Thank you
Terry

Q: My overall portfolio is down 3% the last 6-8 weeks which I justify as the downside of having equities in the portfolio. I am 40% in cash so the drawdown could have been worse. My concern is that the 3% drawdown is just over $20000 and that is a lot of money. We are 70 with defined benefit pensions and really don't need any more capital; just want to preserve what we have. You preach the downside of market timing, but I see $ 20000 worth of paper gains slipping through our fingers. Short of investing 100% in gic's should someone with my profile be more of a trader ie use tight downside tolerances and sell when a predetermined gain or loss is met rather than buy and hold. Please comment as I very much value your opinion. Thank you.

Q: Hello again. I’m interested to know how to consider currency when deciding between hedged, unhedged, and US dollar ETFs. In your answer to my last question, you mentioned that you prefer VPL over VAH; how was currency a factor in your judgment? Also wondering if you would approach European ETFs similarly, with respect to fluctuations between the Euro, USD and CAD (e.g. VEH, VE, VGK). Are there separate currency considerations I should take into account for each region, including EM? (e.g. VEE vs VWO)

When I hear professionals recommend CAD-hedged ETFs when the USD is falling, it sounds tactical but what if an investor has a long time horizon in mind? I’ve heard that unhedged ETFs yield better returns over time, say for a period of 15 years, but I’m wondering if US dollar ETFs are even more preferable, considering that I’ve already got some US cash ready to deploy.

Thanks for clearing up my confusion!

Q: Greetings Peter and company,

Having been a do it yourself investor for over 50 years and a committed index ETF investor for the last 10, I am very impressed with what you are doing.

Assume that investors put half their money into a US index ETF (say SPY) and the other half into a US money market fund. They re-balance when the ratio changes by 10% in either direction and withdraw 1% quarterly to cover living expenses. Will this no-brainer portfolio grow over the next decade? Will it equal or even outperform the i5 Growth Model Portfolio? (Projected 12% annualized long term return. Since the bottom of 2008, the S&P 500 has had a 14.5% annualized return.)

I would appreciate your views on this. Your responses, as far as I have seen, have been uniformly thoughtful.

Thank you.

Milan

Q: Hi,

I will need to change some US dollars into CDN dollars for a land purchase. I feel I missed the boat at $1.37, but I would like your opinion on where you think the USD/CDN exchange is headed in the next 3 months?

Q: I have a large investment in VFV and would appreciate your opinion if I should sell my position in favor of VSP S&P 500 hedged? With thanks, Bill

Q: Good morning,

Can you tell me the effect of the increase of the interest rate in Canada on each of the tsx sectors?

Thanks
Paul

Q: Hello 5i team,
I’m 74 years old; with due diligence and with the contribution of people like you, my RRIF portfolio is behaving very well. My plan is to deplete the RRIF portfolio at age 90. The revenue from this portfolio will continue at the same level if I get a 7% compound annual total return in the next 16 years.
Unfortunately, we expect a recession sometime during those years. If I were to ride the recession, the value of the portfolio would stand still for (let’s say) 5 years and if the portfolio were to grow by 7% in each of the remaining years, my revenue would drop by a whopping one third. In order to maintain the expected level of revenue, my excel projection model indicates that I should obtain a 20% growth per annum instead. That is unrealistic.
Alternatively, I could do what I did in 2008. I sold my holdings after incurring a 15% decline and re-entered the market a few months after it bottomed and started on its recovery path. If I did that and planned for a 7% growth per annum, the revenue would drop by 13% only. That is quite acceptable because there is a 10-15% safety margin in my revenue forecast…a cushion of sorts.
If, however, I knew when the recession will occur, I would exit the market ahead of time and re-enter after the bottom…”but that is another story”.
I would greatly appreciate your collective opinion.
Best regards,
Antoine

Q: Hi Peter: I see another question on the % in each of the 10 sectors. Would it be possible for you to add this to the bottom of your 5i Coverage Summary each month with the up and down arrow if you feel a sector weight should be adjusted? I follow your sector %s and believe it helps me to sell high and buy low. The last time I saw this list energy was 5% and industrials was 20%. Thanks, John.

Q: Hello

I parked some cash in HFR, suppose interest rates go up will HFR be net down?

Thanks

Q: With interest rates likely increasing this month in Canada and also the USA, would you put any extra cash into bond funds (like CBO,XHY) or preferred shares right now; or wait to see if the prices decline with the new higher interest rates?

Thank you.