Investment Q&A

Q: Lots more discussion this weekend over an inverted yield curve. I have two questions:
1) Is this something to be worried of, and do you think investors should be more conservative in the next 12 months?
2) Didn't the 3 and 5 year yield curve invert in December 2018? If so, I'm assuming the 10 and the 2 inverting isn't a huge surprise, although markets have done really well in the past 3 months.

Q: Hi All at 5i! Now that it has been several years since the great market decline in 2008, who faired better overall?The US , that tried to spend its way out through quantative easing,or Europe , who decided on more austere measures? Thanks, Tamara

Q: Should we be concerned about market downturn regarding Brexit
Gail

Q: Could you recommend three recession proof sectors and three stocks in each of those sectors in both the US and Canada. Thanks

Q: If the US were to suddenly decide to revert to a gold-backed currency, what do you think the effect on gold stocks would be?

Q: I don't think the most important reasons to hold bonds in a portfolio have been touched on yet, so here's my take. Dave, of the March 5 question to 5i on bonds, is probably a guy of working age. I, as a retired person, have a different perspective on holding bonds other than enhancing a portfolio's returns, but this is occasionally possible in a low to negative market return year if fully invested in stocks.

I am quite content to receive a 50% bonus to the inflation rate on my fixed
income part as it means I am holding my own after tax when it comes to the
spending power with inflation on that part of the portfolio and it is indeed
about asset allocation as I try to cover all asset classes in my portfolio
strategy including stocks, prefs, gold, cash and fixed income. (No crypto yet). For me, stocks provide the main boost in the overall return, long term. The dividend tax credit's a big help.

What I like about buying individual bonds which I usually hold to maturity is
controlling the issuer's credit quality (for me always investment grade), the
maturity date, and the guaranteed capital gain if buying discount. I've tried
bond ETFs for trading and better liquidity but since I have no control on
maturity or quality, I always seem to end up claiming a loss on the sale, and
any return is fully taxed as interest. I'll buy GICs also for a better interest
rate. The 3 reasons 5i gave for not liking bonds are, for me, minor reasons for having bonds, at my stage of life, if properly balanced in the portfolio.

As far as investment gurus like Buffet being fully invested in equities, this isn't quite accurate.The core of his Berkshire portfolio is insurance stocks which in and of themselves can be considered pension or bond-like. When they receive premium income, what do they buy - bonds because they need to be certain of future obligations and be liquid at the same time. Let's not forget the bond market is 40 times the size of the stock market, which is why Buffet laments there's nothing of size for him to buy and he ends up with holdings like Kraft Heinz. I'll wager the bond holders at KHC are sitting pretty while the stockholders cry in their soup.

If you've read this far, you're probably wondering how deep I'm into bonds and bond equivalents:
It's 29% compared to 14% cash 11% prefs 42% stocks & 4% gold currently, but this does change.

Q: Hi there, it seems like more and more commentary is stating we are in late cycle. Assuming this means that we will soon see a recession in the next 12-18 months, would it make sense to hide out in a low volatility ETF for the time being? It seemed to have held up pretty well in the 2018 Q4 drop. What are your thoughts regarding this strategy and between ZLU and ZLB which would be preferred to be in, or would you split your portfolio 50/50 for diversity? Thanks!

Q: Does your crystal ball predict a market downturn in next six to twelve months.
Clayton

Q: Into which sector(s) or product types(s) besides cash, might you look to add weight if the economy moves negative? Bonds, utilities, staples, preferreds, etc? Don’t always feel like the old guidelines apply anymore.

Q: 5iResearch is a great service and I really appreciate all the advice subscribers get on individual stocks. Having said that, can I get 5i's opinion on whether it is really possible to outperform the market in the longterm. Most of the literature I have read indicates that buying the S&P500 (ie. a market ETF) is the most time-tested way to be a successful in the markets.

Q: ..given growing expectations of a Canadian recession, i'm thinking of moving away from utilities into fixed income. how do you expect XBB, XSB and HFR to perform in comparison to ZWU if a recession occurs. thanks, great service.

Q: Peter we always enjoy your work , and glad we stayed in the market for this bump.
But being a senior now , and looking for safety in utilities and pipelines , am interested in your take on what do you expect for interest rates for the next year or two
many thanks
dave pescod

Q: With a lot of talk of a possible recession in the coming year, which of the following category of stocks would be most negatively affected.: telecom, utility, technology, financial,materials,energy, consumer, metals including gold. Thanks.

Q: I have what I think is sort of a 'big' question. I am looking at various ways to help my performance through an eventual recession. I know that timing it is virtually impossible and even calling it (as we saw this fall) is extremely difficult also. So my research now turns to what are the characteristics of a company that will do well (in all likelihood) after a recession, or indeed right around the middle when equities seem to turn higher given that the big losses usually start just ahead of the actual recession and the buying often starts while the recession is still in full bloom. I look at GUD as one company that holds cash and is deal oriented (or is supposed to be) as a kind of exemplar for this type of idea. Any others? Or is this just a mug's game? Thank-you and please deduct whatever credits you deem necessary. Thankyou.

Q: I'm curious how you would adjust your strategy, if at all, in terms of opportunities, signals, cautions or things to watch for, as we head into a 6 month period leading up to the federal election.

Q: Veronica on BNN mentioned that Market is going to test lows again Also a reputable
money management is telling client to cash out and wait for pullback,my wordings Are not exact but simple language they mean market is over bought and don't buy now,
I have more weight on 5i opinion,please advice of your thought

Q: Some (including Phil Town) are concerned that this is at or above 30. I believe the historic average is about 15. I am also told that an increased Shiller has preceded market crashes historically. I would appreciate your comments in particular as to whether a market crash is in the cards after such a prolonged bull market - a record at 10 years if I recall. Thanks! (Publish this question if you wish)

Q: Over the last decade, I have kept 50% of my portfolio in a US money market fund which now pays 2.27% (TDB166). It has paid as low as 0.05%.

The rest of the portfolio is in a US market index fund which tracks the S&P500 (SPY).

I am happy with the results that this effortless approach to investing produces but am concerned about the US money market fund since the US dollar is so high. Should I get into a Canadian dollar money market fund? Can you suggest any?

Q: Due to health I have been forced into early retirement (51) with no pension. I need a 5% return to live off of my savings. I am presently well diversified 75% CAD dividend companies and fixed income in my non registered account and 25% of my total savings are in registered accounts which follow your balanced portfolio along with GOOG, TEAM, SQ, BOX for US exposure (prob not enough eh?). My gut is telling me I should get rid of the growthy stocks and stick to safe dividend companies but my experience says I should leave it alone as over the long term the balanced portfolio has done quite well.
I would appreciate any and all input you can offer (don't be afraid to hurt my feelings;).

Brian

Q: I have been reluctant to invest in the cannabis industry as there did not seem to be much understanding of the industry as a whole or little (if any) rhyme or reason as to valuations. While acknowledging that things are still far from stable, I do sense that a greater understanding of the industry is developing since legalization in Canada occurred. I am now seeing some thoughtful reports on potential annual demand, analyses of corporate cost structures, critical discussion of common industry issues and a separation of the better companies from the laggards

Would you agree with this assessment? If so, do you feel that enough solid fundamentals and information are now in place to warrant investing in this ETF?
It is up over 50% in the past month so are we witnessing irrational exuberance and a probable bubble or reasonable expectations based on real growth prospects?

Appreciate your insight.

Paul F.