Investment Q&A

Q: It appears more and more likely that there will be a 2nd referendum on Brexit. I predict the Brits will cancel their exit. I also think a deal with China will be had. Finally the Fed may signal no more rate hikes until stronger signs of inflation etc. This week may prove to be a great time to deploy cash to buy the bargains.

Q: Everyone is feeling the pain nowadays ,some more than others. With no where to run to and keep holding on to our holdings, can you please give us three levels on the downside that we should look for?...best.medium.worse case scenarios please and thanks....pertains to the level of the Dow on a technical basis

Q: Hi peter
5 months ago I went to 50% cash I am. Ow regretting I did not go all cash .
This market appears not to have a bottom this are probably the worst I have seen ,
Do you see any catlysts out there that can cause this to bottom?
Eg I sold vet ar 36 and am looking to grit back in only to see it fall daily
Kind regards
Stan

Q: Market was doing OK till Noon and all of a sudden
started going down.Warren B SAID BE GREEDY WHEN EVERY ONE IS IN FEAR AND BE FEARFUL WHEN EVERY ONE IS GREEDY,Is this overreaction under fear or wise move to get out?.

Q: Is Canada out of favor by International Investors. WE Can't get anything done. No Pipelines. International Oil Companies have pulled their funds out of Oil Sands. I listen to BNN Market Call and the majority of Fund Managers say that 2019 will be good year for stocks with a 10 % upward move in earnings. Are we ( retail Investors ) getting suckered in by these slick Portfolio Managers ?
Are you expecting a good rally in early 2019 after all the tax loss selling is over. What will turn International investors on to Canada. The Conservative Party winning next years Election or something else / RAK

Q: The market is again very vicious today,hitting all,including the above 5 darlings (& RAY.A)of 5I,Any reasons? Buy/add or hold or sell.Please rank them starting with best for buy Txs for u usual great services & views

Q: I've been trying to understand these markets and failing. Much of the wild swings of volatility seem to be associated with fears of China and trade woes. I understand why companies which do a lot of business with China, or source products from there would plunge on such fears. But I haven't been able to figure out why trade fears would cause grocers, REITs and utilities to plunge 2%-3%, as they did today. I mean, how is China or trade going to affect the profits of Chartwell Retirement Residences, or Loblaw, or Algonquin Power? The TSX is down around 1% but these are all down 2%-3%, as are most of the utilities and REITs. Are people just panicking and selling everything in sight?

Q: Hi I’ve read that markets are fairly valued based on forward PE of 15 or so. I’d like to look at this from a bigger picture, the total market cap to GDP ratio, the so-called Buffet Indicator. In the past 100 years, this is showing extreme over-evaluation currently 151% exceeded only by the 2001 Tech bubble, 161p. If rates continue to creep higher I can’t see how this will end very well. Then again, if the they peak and then fall, the over evaluation is at least buffered, Your thoughts ?

Q: Good Afternoon ,
With all this recession talk lately have you ever thought of building a model portfolio that will do well or at least hold its own during a recession? Personally I think the economy is in pretty good shape and the probability of a recession occurring in the next 12 months is less than 20%, odds certainly pick up past that as we are getting later in the cycle and could certainly see a recession within the next 24-36 months. Is a recession portfolio something you are considering? Or will you tweak the B/E model when the time is right to help mitigate some of the downside? For example a larger weight in staples, telecom, utilities, maybe some gold and cash? I feel the Income model is certainly more defensive in nature, perhaps an investor could move from the B/E model to the Income for a period of time ? I realize the average recession only last around 9 months give or take but I also believe that markets can go down significantly during recessions 20-30%. Any thoughts on a strategy here and how to better position a portfolio for the potential of a recession in 2-3 years time?
Thank-you

Q: why did tfii drop so much today? Also when do you think there will be a turn around in the market. I know this is not an easy question and there are many factors. T Steve

Q: Im looking at the Dalio/Robbins "All-weather Portfolio". Do you have any comments about it fundamentally? They both say its about diversifying the risk rather than the sector or products in order to increase the chances of making money in almost any market and decrease losses.

Can you make recommendations for each category please? They also recommend low cost etfs to get further diversification within each category. I would still keep a small amount of cash aside for higher growth names to "play with", so any profit taking would potentially go into the All Weather Account.

What they lay out is:

30% Long term bond (20-25 year)

15% Intermediate Bonds (7-10 years)

30% Stocks

7.5% Gold (possibly a bouillon etf, or possibly just gold with no etf)

7.5% Commodities


Please deduct what you feel for credits since this is a multi part question.
Thanks

Q: Hello Peter
I have question regarding "dead cross" on daily frame of $SPX S&P500 (EMA50/200).
If one would sell all portfolio at dead cross time in the middle of October 2000 or beginning of January 2008 that person would save about 50% of losses and about
4,5 years of recovery . What is your or your technical analyst opinion about "dead cross" and current situation compared to 2000 & 2008 corrections.
Thanks.

Q: Further to my earlier question today about the so-called predictive value of the inverted yield curve, I think recent stock market action is not due to such a prediction but more due to journalist hype and general equity anxiety. As pointed out yesterday by Stan Wong on BNN, "An inverted yield curve, where short-term rates are higher than long-term rates, has historically been a precursor to an economic recession. We note however that these (recent; ed.)short-end measures of yield curve steepness have not been reliable precursors to recessions. As a recession indicator, the more reliable yield curve spreads have tended to be those with larger maturity gaps such as the two- and 10-year, which still currently indicates a normal yield curve." I do recognize that your table of two days ago did reference the 2-10 yield gap but I still think if a prediction hasn't materialized in 12 months or so, it isn't much of a prediction.

Q: In one of today's questions, you note "The inverted yield curve has worried some, as it does tend to predict recessions." This statement has an air of certainty that seems to be at odds with the table of data that you published the day before showing that recessions on average came 20 months after the yield curve inversion. What value is there in a prediction that takes on average 20 months to materialize. I would bet a correlation between not having a recession for ten years and having one in the next 2 to 3 years is even better and just as useless. Do you really want to propagate this myth?

Q: With so much blood in the markets and tremendous volatility, is the future (next 1 to 2 years) really as bleak as the current prices indicate?

Q: david rosenberg just publishes an article in the globe ignore the yield curve at your own peril, the crew at 5i seems to me far more optimistic than this article indicates, furthermore the market action seems to indicate rosenberg is right on,so my question is who is right andshouldn,t we all be raising much more cash including 5i portfolios. dave

Q: Given the current volatility in the market there are a lot of analysts heads making bold predictions. Recently I heard one analyst say that "historically double peaks in a period of heightened volatility signals the end of a bull market". You've taught me there is always an opposing view-so is this statement simply that or is there some credence to it. Thanks for all you do.

Glen

Q: With the 10/2 year treasuries spread now at 0.11 for December 4, 2018. Would it be prudent eye up good quality stocks, in preparation of a recession coming?
And is this something you are watching?

Q: Is there sector rotation happening? if so which sector looks better ?
thank you!

Q: Hello Peter & Ryan,

After 2 incredibly gut wrenching months on the markets and the so-called repricing of equities, today the markets were cheering and have pushed indexes on both sides of the border into what appears like a 'relief' rally>
My question is a 2 part question:.

1. I would really like your insights into what were market participants betting on today and perhaps going forward. Is this possibly a "head fake" setting the market up for another wild journey or do you think that the market believes that concerns around: (a) interest rates (do not have much further to go) and, (b) that the US and China might be able to agree on a truth of sorts this weekend.

2. If the above concerns (question 1) become reality in the next month or so, what is your advice to members? What should investors chip away at in order to perhaps recover losses and defend their positions. I realize this a very broad question, but would appreciate your top 6 defensive picks, regardless of asset classes, that will boost our portfolios in the next 3 to 5 years.

Thank you very and much appreciate your opinion,
Joseph