Investment Q&A

Q: Hello 5i,

Can you explain where money flows too during risk-off periods such as 2007-2009 and 2022. With the risk of no declines in the Fed rate this year what would the 2025 scenario look like for equities? Other than shorts, are there sectors that can flourish in a 2007-2009 and 2022 scenario?

At which point is it favourable to look at short-term and 5-10 year Treasuries?

Thank you for your service.

D&J

Q: I do not recall the rationale for the change in RRSP rules to lift the requirement that RRSPs had to have a certain percentage in Canadian equities. Canadian companies have a hard time raising equity, and this rule change must have caused a lot of money to leave the Canadian stock market for the US. I would support a reinstatement of the rule for any new money. If Trump wants to hit Canada with tariffs there is no reason why Canada should encourage investment in the US.

Q: How should I protect my portfolio before Trump introduces tariffs of up to 25%. Which companies would be most affected and might be sold before this happens?

Q: Hi 5i,

Basic clarification - when you allude to allocation percentages in a portfolio - do you 5i - speak to the allocation % in an OVERALL Portfolio? Example (All non reg and registered investment accounts) or within a specific portfolio (i.e. RRSP etc.)?

Thank you!

Q: Hi Peter and 5i Team,

Recently, Noah Solomon has had several articles in the Financial Post in which he describes the inherent dangers of the S&P 500 due to its high valuation, warning signals from the CAPE ratio, etc. (I’m using VFV as a typical ETF).

What is your assessment of his views? What strategies might a retail investor employ if there’s validity to his thesis?

Thanks as always for your insight.

Q: In general, how should Canadian investors consider adjusting portfolios in light of the tariff threat? Should they be reducing exposure to Canadian equities on a relative basis? What fixed income /cash alternatives should be considered?

Q: Could you please tell me what the average P/E is for the 11 sectors of the TSX?

Thanks in advance, Carl

Q: I read Frederick Vetesse’s article in the Globe and Mail today (Jan. 8) about the currently high P/E ratio indicating a potential stock market crash, and would be interested in your comments on it. I’ve included the link here:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/retirement/article-why-a-stock-market-crash-may-be-imminent/
Thanks so much for your sage advice over the years, and wishing you and your team a Happy New Year!

Q: Good Afternoon
Today a well known analyst predicted, in the Globe and Mail, that we could get a correction on the TSX worst than the one in 2018 when the index fell 11.64 % if Trump implements his 25% tariff.
Further, if the tariffs stay longer, a TSX loss of 35%, as we saw in 2008, is possible.
What is your reaction to these comments and what is your prediction for the TSX in 2025 ?

Q: Curious if you read Howard Marks latest "Memo" published yesterday https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/on-bubble-watch ? He addressed issues of bubble characteristics, market concentration, market valuation and forward expectations relative to current market valuations. What is your impression of his Memo?

Thanks.

Q: For the past while I've been hearing about an opportunity in small caps and how they are undervalued versus large caps. Typically I consider diversification between fixed income vs equity, and then diversifying by geography and then by sector. However, I'm curious on your thoughts on the proportion of an equity portfolio that is invested in small cap vs large caps?

Of course, understanding that you can't provide personal advice and it highly depends on an individuals timeframe and risk tolerance.

Q: If you were setting up your investment portfolio for 2025, what would you want as your optimal concentrations per sector?
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All the best in 2025!

Q: Many are feeling the market is high. Certainly, we can't expect another year of 20% growth.

I'm interested in a strategy of maintaining those gains. Does that mean pulling money out of stocks that seem overgrown, or does it mean investing new money into areas that have not been part of the recent rise.

What sectors do you think these are? I nominate well-known companies (especially tech and giants like Costco) as overgrown even if they are good companies, and energy and small cap as part of the second group.

How does this compare with your thinking?

Q: Interview of 3 economists this month wich similar conclusions :"markets are extremely ( and historicaly) overvalued" , all anticipate some correction in January and "roller-coaster" after..No mention of sectors though ...Do you agree with this overvaluation thesis, and if this were the case ,what sectors would be less at risk ?

Q: Canada has accelerated both inflow and outflow of Foreign investments in Canada since Liberals took office. The Liberal government is abandoning ship, Canadian dollar is nosediving, and our deficit continues to spiral out of control!
Canadian stock investors like us here on 5i are taking big risks in buying Canadian stocks only to see our dollar erode, our stocks erode, and our investments erode.
I feel the only way to combat these issues outside of our control is to buy American stocks and investments as the more I invest in Canada the more Trudeau and his Liberals will find ways to screw my hard earned dollars, that are getting smaller by the day!
Your thoughts, thank you!

Q: Everyone, what is your biggest regret about investing? Clayton

Q: There can be little doubt that investors, since the elections of successive Trudeau administrations, have become increasingly wary about sinking money in Canada. Outflows double inflows of capital and our dollar's value has fallen by 20% retarding ROI's for investors. What is 5i's outlook for the Cdn$ and investment going forward?

Q: Can you expand on relationship/correlation of Macro Market Models in Market correction situation or because market correction is inherently unavoidable and ? relatively short cyclical event it doesn’t affect/correlate with the Makro Markets Models ? Thank you .
Miroslaw

Q: We own shares in a bunch of TSX listed Canadian companies like the banks, SHOP and AEM etc that are also listed on the NYSE. I feel the USD is going higher or perhaps I should say the CAD is going lower. The same may hold true for the European and Chinese stock exchanges, with all the currencies going lower against the USD. At some point I wonder if the Federal reserve will start to lower interest rates if the USD goes too high. Mr. Trump will be happy!
Not sure if it makes sense to shift the TSX traded stocks over to the US side of the ledger. We also own a lot of US listed stocks on the US exchanges. In away the low CAD has made the purchase of CA stocks using USD cheaper! What's your take? Any thoughts you have would be appreciated.
Regards,
Jim

Q: When are we going to have a correction?