Investment Q&A

Q: What is your opinion on the $1 trillion+ stimulus and the Covid19 impact on the economy in the next few months or longer? What happens if the general lockdown last a few months? Any chance that it is not as big of a story than reported by the media? I had to drive out of town on Friday and I listened to CNBC for 2 hours. It was so negative I had to turn it off. Is it just me or are they trying to scare people? Thank you for your general comments.

Q: Considering buying US large caps ETF when things turn more positive.
To hedge or not to hedge with the Cdn$ having fallen so much largely but not only because of the Russia/Saudi war on the price of oil - which will get resoved. I understand under normal circumstances your preference for not hedging.
Thanks for your great service especially during these uncomfortable times.

Q: Just read your March 17 Stock Market Update article regarding "Where is the bottom???" and the bear Market histories. Very enlightening.

I have been almost entirely in cash for over a month now and noted your portfolio changes. You mentioned Adding a new 4% position of BMO Equal Weight REITs ETF (ZRE) in the Income Portfolio. ZRE has been very steady since inception in 2010 gaining almost 40% over that time period until the recent unprecedented and understandable 37% drop since Jan 31.

My question is where should we park our cash while we wait out this terrible situation? Should we just leave it as cash? Is the BMO ETF a suggestion for a short term hold? I did read your Trade Rationale and was a little confused by your comment "remove some of the 'tail risks' that might be seen if there are issues at any individual company." Am I right in thinking this is in reference to ZRE being an ETF? Apologies for my ignorance.

Thanks for all you do

gm

Q: I seem to remember in past recessions that I was able to buy bonds of troubled companies like Air Canada and GM with yields in excess of 12%. I just looked on TD WebBroker and AC bonds are YTM 3.5%! No thanks! Definitely doesn't sound like a good risk reward, and there were many other companies with still 'normal' looking yields. Any thoughts on when bonds will be re-rated (or not)? Even the energy sector at some point should be yielding much much higher, with better risk profile than equities.
Alternatively, I always hear that the bond market is smarter than the equity market. Could this be a sign that equity markets have over-reacted? Thanks for all your good work!

Q: Hi,

Could I get your opinion on 2 investment paths contemplating at moment for equity portion of portfolio?

At moment my equity exposure is passively invested in IWO, VGG, VIU, VEE. I am trying to decide if I should sell off this passive postion, in part or entirety, and invest in individual beaten up securities, for example a number from your recent reports for North American exposure.

The objective would be to have a higher return 2-3 years out from this market. Not really concerned with volatility.

Thanks

Q: On Sunday, PBS Wealthtrack aired an interview with a well seasoned advisor, R. Kessler, who recommended to raise cash as the damage to the stock market will get worse before it gets better due to a severe recession etc. His case made a lot of sense, and I would be interested in your comments on this statement.

Thank you!

Q: Assuming this downtrend will bottom at some point, and eventually recover, in your opinion, which three sectors offer the best chance of minimum damage in any downturn, and the best chance to recover sooner rather than later in an upturn. Could you name and rank (best first), 3 dividend stocks in each sector that you feel will survive the downturn and lead the way in recovering in each of the three sectors. Thank you. Warren

Q: I am an 88 year old, investing for over 70 years, and an appreciative member of 5i since inception. My present objectives include creating capital losses; reducing my formerly 80 stock non-registered portfolio to only those in your Balanced Portfolio; thereby making my life easier so that I do not concern myself each day with fluctuations, and let you make the decisions;etc., I believe I have the following options; 1) Sell all present losers; 2) Henceforth buy or sell only stocks in the Balanced Portfolio 3) Where the 30 day rule applies, buy comparative stocks for the 30 days).. What is your opinion? Do you have better proposals in view of the present crisis? Thank you in advance for your usual consideration and advice.

Q: I have been sitting out this market decline with inverse etfs and HUV. I see the major North American indexes have again broken support and are heading for 2016 levels. 2016 levels would appear to be an important support level BUT the time-frame of the current coronavirus lock-down that could go on, in one form or another, for many months. The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team in collaboration with the WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Modelling and other organizations put out a report on March 16 (available online) that recommends the type of drastic measures we are now seeing implemented globally (social distancing of the entire population, home isolation of cases and household quarantine of their family members, ...supplemented by school, university, and business closures) in order to prevent serious loss of life (2.2 million estimated in the US alone) and huge social and economic impacts. The release of this report is what swiftly galvanized the current global efforts to contain the virus over the past few days. These efforts may seem harsh but are essential to avoid the worst effects of the contagion (as we are seeing in places like Bergamo, Italy).

The report recommends that these measure be maintained (to avoid rebound) until a vaccine becomes available, and that is estimated to take 18 months or more.

Now, we all know markets hate uncertainty. Hence the unprecedented volatility over these past few weeks. I don't see a silver lining yet, except of course the prospect of getting past the pandemic, which is a real possibility now that the correct measures are being taken. Therefore, I don't see a need to buy anything until we have flattened the curve and the markets respond accordingly. Until then we are likely to face further declines (to who knows what levels) with periodic relief rallies. Again, I ask, am I missing something?

Q: When things seem like theyve settled down some, I plan to average down on some of my higher quality (less speculative) stocks. Im also planning to do this around dividend dates since this seems like a good time to compound DRIPS and collect extra shares.

Now, the core of my portfolio is still in a few broad market etfs. Do you think in the recovery that a certain market (S&P500, Nasdaq, DOW etc. - Im assuming not the TSX since Canada is fighting an economic war on multiple fronts) will happen faster than in others? Would you think in the recovery that buying hedged would be better since the US Dollar has been climbing recently? Thanks

Q: Unemployment...

I've heard of an estimate of unemployment going up, as estimated recently by one of the big US banks, can you provide some insight to this?

When are the next figures due for Canada and USA?

Q: On fundamentals (yield/PE revenue ..etc have we reached the levels of 2008 financial crises in particular for banks/utilities and REITS. Can you please explain if majority of REITS in particular residential (eg CAR.UN) would benefit from lower interest rates why are they going down?

Thanks

Q: hi .do you think we will be in an deflationary or inflationary recession.my guess would be inflationary. thanks brian

Q: Larry Berman noted money market levels are approaching highs witnessed after the 2008 crash creating a backlog of buying power, but He also noted that only when that is combined with a vix of about 40 ( currently around 70) will the market give a sign it is likely to turn around. He cautioned any big rebounds now are not a sign the market is turning for the better, we need the vix to come down first. Does this seem logical?

Q: God day Peter, Ryan and team. I don't exactly know why but I'm getting the "sense" we are majorly oversold and we are getting close to (give or take a hickup or two) exiting "Crazyville"... Do you get the same sense?

Q: This market is offering a wonderful opportunity to buy quality dividend paying companies at discounts that seem remarkable. I think this is a once in a decade opportunity. For the long term investor, who wants dividend income as well, this is a gift.

Q: Hi TEam,
I know you don't like making short term predictions. However, Canadian dollar is dropping fast. I have some cash parked and would it be a good idea to convert them to US dollars until things settle down.

Thanks

Q: As we go through this cycle of the economy shutting down, stimulus to keep the lights on, and a restart of the economy... in Canada are we looking at inflation or deflation for the short or long term?
Thanks!

Q: Hello 5i
Could you please compare the ‘87 vs the current crash in terms of depth of declines and the time it took to rebound to precrash levels?
Thanks
Dave

Q: Total insanity ! 2 historical drops in a few days?
Nowhere to hide everything is going down(except cash)even then CDN$ 69.17USD this AM. End of the world is coming according to Mr Market. One question I have: Is this the new norm with high frequency traders and market shorts for economic end cycles?
Your view would be very appreciated!