Investment Q&A

Q: Hi i5,

According to "Buffett Indicator", when it's in the 70% to 80% range, it is time to throw cash at the market. When it moves above 100%, it's time to lean toward risk-off. Now Market Cap to GDP Ration > 100% means stocks in bubble territory. Do you think Canadian stocks may also in bubble territory? If US in bear market, do you think the above Canadian stocks which I am holding can be survived? Perhaps, should we start to off load which may be in danger during the bear market into cash, or switch among balance or income portfolio. Any suggestion?

Q: Which 5 Canadian and US companies would 5i want to be holding when we get a significant market moving vaccine/treatment announcement? Tech and gold have been powerful during the pandemic but I want to make sure I am considering the right companies to add to provide balance if tech pauses and different sectors are needed for a leg higher. Your favs in each market and how/why you see them reacting to the announcement. Multiple credits are assumed.

Q: I'd like to get your take on a piece in the Globe and Mail yesterday by Scott Barlow related to the Canadian dollar. It's position is that on top of a large rise the loonie has already experienced, we can expect it to go much higher compared to the US$. This obviously doesn't bode well for those with investments in US dollar accounts so I wonder if you think it might be better to shift some of it back to Canada, perhaps into hedged ETFs with US holdings like XMH or VSP.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-the-strongest-force-behind-the-market-rally-could-push-loonie-much/#comments

Q: Good morning 5i,
I appreciated your recent article, as usual. I find them helpful to understand what is going on in the investing world. You mention that the fang stocks comprise most of the gains over the past few months and that much of the market hasn't kept up. Some people are talking about a rotation out of technology into I suppose, more value oriented stocks. I don't know if this thesis is true. The Fangs seem to keep going up. But, do you think it might be a time to start a switch for a cautious investor? If so, would rsp , an equal weight US market etf, and brk, probably the definition of value, be a good way to approach this change
thanks

Q: Are there any sectors which are interesting from an evaluation point of view which should be added to nowadays? Are there any geographical areas which are in the same situation? Both are for longer term of 5+ years.

Thanks, Mike

Q: Watched Jeffery Gundlach being interviewed by Daniel Martino Booth, his credentials are very impressive, I have always liked to listen to his view of the Worlds Financial System.
According to him the Fed will take drastic measures in Drastic times. example being they have already done so by violating the Federal Reserve Act, with their purchases of Corporate Bonds, Stock purchases will probably come next.
I was confused by his biggest fear that the FED might declare their Liabilities as " Legal Tender"...... could you explain what he means by that Statement. I assumed that their Liabilities where already Legal Tender in the fact that their liabilities are backed by the Tax Payers of America, or did he simply mean he is fearful of the Fed just printing 7 trillion and wiping away all the debt.
thanks Gord

Q: Do you think the big 5 AMZN, Apple, Microsoft, Google and Face Book should be in the indexes. They distort what is actually going on in the Sock Market and the Economy ? RAK

Q: I'm interested to hear your feedback about the growth potential (and risk) of the renewable energy theme. What stocks would you recommend, and for how long of a hold?
TIA!

Q: How would you generally describe the second quarter results from the companies in the Canada and the United States markets.
Clayton

Q: Where do you see the market going by the end of the year?
Clayton

Q: Am heavily invested in USD titles/ US Treasuries,
reasons for CAD rise vs USD
any long term trends detectable,
ie when Gold rises USD sinks, true, some forecast gold at near 3000 USD??????
Art

Q: Would the Three Gorges Dam failure be as cataclysmic to the markets and supply chain(s) as the rumblings I am hearing?

If so, would such a threat be worth hedging against? ie., reducing equities now, taking profits, etc?

Q: Do you figure there's much to this weakening USD trend or it's likely a short term fad?

Q: There has been a lot of talk about inflation recently.
A lot of people will typically flock to gold, but if the currencies devalue, won't all assets appreciate in price, including real estate and stock? My question is - what is likely to appreciate faster: gold, real estate, or stocks?

Q: Hello 5i,
Back in 2008/09 the Fed and Central banks around the world flooded the system with liquidity to avoid a meltdown. I remember hearing MANY pundits warning of runaway inflation as a result of these moves. Fast forward to now and I'm starting to hear much the same.
In your opinion, is it likely to be different this time? Will we get runaway inflation? Or will it be more like 2010-2019 with muted inflation at best?
Thanks for your insight!!
Dave

Q: I'm thinking the current time might be an opportunity to crystallize any significant capital gains ahead of situational uncertainty later this year and early in 2021. The deepening fiscal hole suggests to me that the government will be getting increasingly desperate, such that an increase in the capital gains inclusion rate (already signaled) and perhaps a TFSA contribution rate reduction might be in the cards (remembering the near halving of that rate immediately after the 2015 election of the Trudeau government). Also, the NDP evidently considers that virtually any preferential treatment of any kind of investment income is an affront to their concept of taxation "fairness", and their support will continue to be essential for the Trudeau government. Thanks for any thoughts you might have on this.

Q: I have been hearing and reading a lot about "The death of the 60%/40% asset mix. I manage several portfolio's for our family and use different mixes based on age and risk, but for myself (66 ) and my dad (87) I have been at that mix (or close to) for several years now. I feel its has served me well in this correction and am resistant to taking on too much risk. When considering the fixed income it is not all individual bonds or money market holdings I include in the 40% but ETF"s such as CBO,ZAG, ZHY and XSB. Am I right to assume Fixed income ETF'S can be included with with straight up bonds in the makeup of that portion of ones holdings and do you see this mix as a poor choice going forward. thank you

Q: Hi Guys,

Delighted to be a member of this community. Your advice and thinking has been invaluable.

I've been on a long search with what to do with the conservative part of my (and my elderly mother's) portfolio.

The prevailing sentiment seems to be that cash and bonds are safe, and anything touching on equities are higher risk.

I question the bonds though. They go up and down quite a bit during normal times and went down quite a lot during the crash.

Meanwhile, big low volatility companies like Microsoft, CNR and many of the stocks you've recommend as defensive stocks seems to steadily grow during normal times and, when there is a shock, recover quickly.

In short, the defensive stocks seem less risky than the bonds and seem a better option for the conservative money. Am I mistaken in my thinking? Is the industry just stuck in a paradigm of thinking that bonds are the safest thing next to cash?

In that frame, I'd also like to ask where low volatility, dividend and preferred share ETFs sit on that spectrum of safety.

Thanks, as always, for your wisdom.

Kevin

Q: Our new BOC governor said he was expecting to buy 5 billion of bonds every week .First of all where are these bonds coming from and who is dumping them or are they being created out of thin air? I was looking at bond etf's but am a little concerned that the governments seem to be the main buyers lately.An article I read said the US govt was going to lose money on WM bonds that it purchased .Why would a recession proof business need to be supported by the US govt. shouldn't they be able to support themselves on their own cash flow?

Q: I'd like to adjust the split between the Canadian and US equities in my employer-sponsored RRSP. Currently the portfolio is 81% in a Canadian equity fund and only 3% in a US equity fund (the remaining 16% in an international fund). What would you consider a more appropriate Canada-US split than 81% vs 3%? Also, ongoing contributions are being made 100% to the Canadian equity fund. As with the existing portfolio, what would you suggest as a more appropriate Canada-US split for future plan contributions going forward? Looking at a 3-5 year timeline and more potential opportunities and growth on the US side of things. Thanks.