Investment Q&A

Q: If the fear of higher interest rates was causing the share prices of tech companies to fall, why would share prices rise today (April 13) with the announcement of a 0.5% rate increase?
Puzzled...Steve

Q: Consensus is that a recession is coming, question is when. When the recession hits will that be a precursor to a bear market? If so will that be cyclical or secular?
You recently answered a question stating that recessions typically last less than a year. If so that would suggest it may be a precursor to a cyclical bear market but not a secular (multi year??) bear market.
Many pundits suggest we are in the late innings of a secular bull market, which started in 2009, I wonder whether this imminent recession would be the precursor to a pending secular bear market, thoughts?

Q: Hi 5iTeam,

I would like to find out how stock markets did in times of high interest and inflation rates. Would you please shed some lights as to how the US and Canadian stock markets did in late 1970s and early 1980s.

And indeed if there were significant pullbacks during these periods, how long then did it take for the markets to recover.

As always thanks for your invaluable service.

Best Regards,
H

Q: Hi, At times like these when positions at companies like Shop and Nvda are eroded..when does it make sense to add? Should one wait until the interest rate cycle is over and wait for the tides to turn? What indications should you look out for for growth stocks to rebound? Thanks. Shyam

Q: Hello

This question is mainly for Peter because of his long experience.

It is obvious that rates will rise significantly in 2022 and maybe 2023 due to high inflation. And at the same time it also seems very likely that there will be a recession in 12 to 18 months. My question is how can central banks react in such an environment? Will they start cutting rates when the recession is on the horizon or is it possible that they will leave them stable for a more or less extended period, even in a recession?

Thanks

Q: Hi
Am I correct in understanding that REITs are a good hedge against inflation? All of these REITs have been decreasing- some more than others. Are there any that you think will continue to be at risk in a rising rate environment? would you add to any during this most recent decline?
thanks

Q: I would appreciate your thoughts on asset and sector allocation if one believes we are approaching a recession. Thanks for a great service.

Q: Please give me your outlook re the lumber market in the next year in light of rising interest rates, would you consider it a sell or hold and if a sell would you give me some sector areas to redeploy the money.

Q: Given that we are seeing increased inflation and many are predicting a recession in the next 12 to 18 months, what would be your investing strategy, what fundamentals should we look for, i.e. Earnings, or?? What sectors would you suggest for safety and what sectors should we avoid?

Thank You

Q: Some talk of chances of fed engineering a soft landing are low. Inflation too high and it isn’t transitory and tightening will likely put us into a recession in 2023. Is a recession a very likely scenario for 2023?

Q: Between January and March of last year (13-16 months ago) I sold my bond holdings in ZAG and CLF and moved the money into the short-term bond fund ZST. As a capital preservation strategy it limited the downside from rising interest rates. ZST is down 2%, while CLF is down 6% and ZAG 9%. I saw an analyst on BNN this morning recommend it is time to start easing back into longer term bonds. It feels a bit early to me. Won't the short term bond funds benefit first from rising rates while the longer term funds will continue to decline? If capital preservation and rate of return are weighted about 50/50, what do you think of moving back into longer term bond funds at this time and would you do it gradually?

Q: oh Ross Healey....on Market Call.......yes Garth and another person, everyone has an opinion but Ross's is like outside the standard deviation and by a wide margin me, surprised BNNBloomberg invites the "heel" onto the show
I'll take 5IR anytime.......Tom

Q: I fully agree with your long term buy and hold of strong companies philosophy which is why I am so happy subscribing to this website.

Recently, I've been wondering how cyclical stocks like those above fit into that philosophy. I don't want to become a trader, but I am wondering if I should sell these at a relative high and invest in companies that are more likely to grow steadily over the long term. These ebb and flow companies seem more suited to a trader.

Given that investment strategy, would you sell companies like this at the good point in their price history?

Thanks as always.

Kevin

Q: the metals are taking a shellacking today, do you know the reason?

Q: Are there any indicators a recession coming?

I ask as nothing makes much sense at the moment. I run my own business, and there is a lot going on right now and feel the sand shifting underneath me.

COGS is going up like crazy, there is wage inflation, inflation in general, and interest rate increases on the horizon. I notice retail customers are bit slower than before and shipping is going up.

I don't get a good sense that things can continue like this.

I know inflation doesn't normally cause recessions, but interest rate increases can.

Should I not worry about it and just let my balanced portfolio go through the process.

Or do I position some Cash or more recession proof companies into my portfolio?

Sorry lots to unpack, but the Tea Leaves aren't giving me anything yet my gut feels something;)

Thanks Colin.

Q: Hi 5i!

Usually the CAD gets stronger compared to the USD when oil prices rise. This time around with oil above 100$ the CAD did not really follow suite. It does look like it has started to move up. In the short term( 3 to 5 months) Where do you see the CAD going. Any chance your amazing crystal ball see it going to 85C?

Thank you!

Q: Going forward for the rest of this year, what sectors do you think will do best in terms of growth and can out perform the broad market?

Q: I am a recently retired 60 year-old investor who has a DB pension, fairly large RRSP, and wish to hold off CPP until age 70 for maximum benefit.
So based on the above, even with some income-splitting, tax-wise I am going to get taken to the cleaners once I hit my 70's. I am planning to withdraw some RRSP money over the next 10 years in an attempt to lessen the hit.

Generally I am a dividend investor, but the dreaded dividend gross-up does further damage to my situation with regards to the OAS claw-back. I am wondering if I should be adding more of the growth type companies instead (eg. BAM, CSU, FSV) instead of adding to my dividend-paying stocks.

I know you are not tax experts and don't expect any specific advice, but do you have a general opinion on a retiree balancing their mainly dividend portfolio with some growth? I always thought dividends were taxed better than capital gains, but that gross-up is the enemy here.

Q: I have to move $100K into my RSP for corporate tax reasons. I have been waiting for the market to settle. I am in no rush just have to do it before October. I know you can’t time the market but thinking about making the transfer and then slowly buying over the next while as the ups and downs are not as big as they have been over the last many months. Your thoughts on this?

Another option may be purchasing a few ETFs both growth and balanced. I have no ETFs to date and think this may be an option, any suggestions?

Q: Given current market volatility and the increased speculation that we are headed into a recession, what are your top 5 defensive stocks with reasonable potential for growth in Canada and US. Could you include good entry points for each.