Investment Q&A

Q: What sectors on the TSX are going to be strong in the next 3 months?

Q: Were do you see the US markets going in the next 5 months?

Q: It looks like around Seven AM this morning the Canadian dollar abruptly shot up a more than 1%, thus wiping out any gains I might make for the day. Any idea what the cause was? Any predictions about where the dollar-dollar ratio is headed in the near term? I hold a lot of US stocks in unhedged Canadian ETFs and am now reconsidering the helpfulness of hedged products.

Q: I have a number of laggards in my portfolio that have been dramatically outperformed by peers during this year's rally, many of which I already own. I realize that you have generally rated these as 'hold' when asked in the past-yet I'm seeing a substantial opportunity cost to holding while others hold momentum during these hot markets for tech, industrial and commodities.
Any thoughts on whether it is worth continuing to hold and would you advise replacing at this time. ie on the balance of possible outcomes, would I be better off to stand pat or shift over to comparables within the sectors?
Thanks,
Peter

Q: Precious metals having a good day today, assuming its mainly because of the hot inflation numbers coming out. Do you see these stocks having more room to run? I own the above. Can you rank the above stocks in terms of the inflationary environment and which have the best growth and potential. Which sectors would do the best? Also I'm low in energy, would that sector do well if inflation persists or is it mainly driven by energy prices? Do you still see inflation as transitory or more persistent? Thanks!

Q: Hi Everyone! Me again. I have been listening to some financial podcasts and the discussion came around to a liquidity crisis which these folks are predicting may happen in the fall. Now taking this all with a grain of salt, what , in a nutshell , is a liquidity crisis and under what circumstances could this becoming our way??? Cheers again, Tamara

Q: When financial aids due to pandemic shut down measures end do you expect market downdraft? In Canada the CERB will end on Sept 25, 2021. Not sure when the U.S. financial aids will end though.

Q: Over the next 5 to 10 years, which index do you expect to perform better? The S&P500 or the NASDAQ100 and what would be your reasoning? Thanks in advance.

Q: The fixed income portion of our portfolio includes XBB@15% and ZIC at 6%. Portfolio analytics is suggesting fixed income assets @40%. I am not keen on adding more bonds and would be comfortable at 30% in FI. Can you suggest 1-2 alternatives for someone entering retirement?

Q: Hi Team,
Do you recommend having higher cash position at this time or near future?
Thanks!

Q: Hello 5i Research
The US index has out performed the TSX index the last decade.
Do you think that the next decade
the Canadian market will out perform the US market ? What are your thoughts/ guess?
Thanks

Q: Are we starting to see another sector rotation particularly back into tech? What do you see as the best sectors to put money to work in right now?

Thanks!

Q: I realize that things are a little crazy throughout the world but can you see any particular reason that advisors of my friends ( 65 yrs plus ) are moving there portfolios into very defensive positions other than the good run in the last 14 months? Is there anything that I am not seeing as opposed to them? Thanks, James

Q: It seems all the Canadian banks are doing well - huge profits, reversing loan-losses, cash piles and talk of boosting dividends.

Is a lot of this profit due to the increasing real-estate mortgages being issued that have an implicit government backstop? I view this as a form of moral hazard - the banks know the government has their back so continue to lend despite worsening lending metrics like income to home price etc.

Do you see any risk from all the non-house owners in the country putting pressure on the government to reign in bank profits, as it seems only the 'rich' home owners are benefitting? Or would the banks themselves curtail lending as home prices continue to appreciate?

I know that the Canadian residential real estate market if a primary driver of our economic gains nowadays but at some point, the policital winds may shift.

What signals related to Canadian housing would you look for to make you want to reduce your exposure to Canadian banks?

Q: Peter Foster penned an article in the National post on Saturday about Mark Carney and the impending green movement and great reset. Based on Mr. Carney’s seeming ties to the libs and global heft, do you see the is as a threat to markets in Canada and globally?

Q: Hi 5i team.

I'm going to try to re-phrase my question asked earlier re: levels in the S+P.

What is the S+P currently trading at and forward PE?
Since this is on the high side historically, what would be the reversion to the mean number? (I believe it's currently trading at 25xs and the mean would be 15?)
If at some point the market heads back there (as is typical in theory) what would the S+P be trading at vs where it is today?

Many thanks.

Q: Hi 5i team.

I am interested in your analysis of the following.

Given the markets appear to be trading at higher multiples vs "normal", can you please comment on what the current levels are, what the median levels would be (that history shows us) and what the market levels would look like if a reversion to the mean took place?

Many thanks.

Q: Hi folks.

With all this talk about higher inflation (new shiny object for the media) there has been very little discussion on the explosion of debt Countries have embarked on, pre, and since the onset of Covid. Seems like this appears to be a coordinated effort throughout the developed world, and as a result, no one seems too bothered, Including Conservatives.
Are there any lessons in history we can draw from? How does 5i think this all gets resolved over the next decade or two, assuming it will take a bit of time to generate enough growth to cover all this?
Are we headed for multiple Japans where the Gov't owns all or most Gov't issued bonds to control interest payments. Does this scenario create even more inflation with depreciation of currencies and a race to the bottom on exchange rates? Way above my pay grade so please take a stab at opining on this for us.

Many thanks.

Q: I am currently over-weight in Financials (more than 50%) in my portfolio. I am in the process of slowly re-balancing by first of all moving some $$ into Utilities & Telecommunications. What would be a reasonable % of portfolio for an average investor to have in Utilities & Telecommunications?

Q: I am reading "Machine Learning for Algorithmic Trading" by Stefan Janson. It states that algorithmic trading in '19 accounted for 35% of institutional trading (excluding HFT) that is increasingly dominated by ML driven systems (Rebellion Research, Sentient, Aidyia,..) and of course we all know about Renaissance.
I am curious about any comment you might have on that topic, do you see value in this for your style of trading and maybe even considered using it. Your results are already spectacular, so my question is driven only by intellectual curiosity.
Peter