Investment Q&A

Q: So all of a sudden all the stocks which have seen nothing but strong momentum for days, weeks, months, are a big buy. Stocks down 30-40% just this month, down 20% this week, are shooting up. I assume this is not everyone getting together and deciding to buy the stocks which have been pummeled, even though they'll probably all drop again tomorrow. It's programmed trading kicking in on some sort of signal we mere mortals don't get. What would that signal be?

Q: I have lived through the 2000/2001 tech wreck and the 2008 market correction and this market is just as ugly.What reasons do you have for believing we are near a market bottom. Has capitulation has already happened? Is the VIX telling us anything?Are rising rates not going to overwhelm government debts?An extended recession seems inevitable. IMHO

Q: TSE60 hasn’t dropped as much as the S&P500. Reducing individual stocks risk and moved into TSE60, would it make sense to now move to the S&P 500? Or is the expectation that the TSE60 won’t drop as much as the S&P500? Where do you see the most up side potential from here.

Q: I've seen you mention in the Q and A that the bottom is likely close. And I've seen that in other analyst articles etc. But if the reaction is to the increase in interest rates and they keep going up, then why would the market bottom now? What are the chances that the market will be higher at the end of the year? And what happens if we then go into recession?

Q: I found this excerpt from a December 29, 2000 New York Times article instructive:

From 1995 through 1997, the bull market was good for almost every company. Then, starting in 1998 it became more selective and by late 1999 and early 2000 it was focused on a fairly narrow group of stocks -- many of them highly speculative. The big market news of 2000 was the bursting of the bubble for many of them.

The collapse of Nasdaq appears to have damaged consumer confidence and contributed to the poor holiday sales this year. But most investors have stuck to the stock market, even as they abandoned Internet retailers and saw Microsoft lose 62 percent of its value. The Dow Jones utility average is up 46 percent in 2000, its best showing since 1943, as utilities profit from increased demand for power after years when few new generating plants were built.
End of excerpt.
In 2001 we had a 8 month recession.
Sound familiar?
I realize that there are a lot of differences now. We have the supply chain issues caused by the pandemic and a war which has caused a temporary spike in oil and gas and some agriculture related shortgages. in 2001 we had a recession. All this will pass. Not clear who will be the winners in the next 18 months. My guess is, all that money to be spent on infrastructure, anything to do with electric cars and weapons. Follow the money.

Q: Nasdaq is now down about 28% from its' high in Nov. Based on the past history of corrections/bear markets, etc, what would you guess is the likelyhood of it going past 35% ??? Thanks Jim

Q: Hi 5i
Just curious. I realize there’s always 2sides to a trade. So with the market going down for a while now, who do you think is doing the trading.
Retail selling/buying or smart money in there somewhere.
Peter thanks to your advice over the years I’m watching the market and not doing anything irrational and definitely not worrying about today or tomorrow.
Thx

Q: Yesterday would have been Benjamin Graham's 128th birthday. Born in London on May 9, 1894, Graham founded the disciplines of security analysis and value investing, was Warren Buffett's mentor and wrote the classic book after which this newsletter is named.

Graham knew hardship. His father died when Ben was only eight years old, and the family business -- importing porcelain and decorative objects -- fell apart. His mother's brokerage account was wiped out in the Panic of 1907. Graham never forgot being sent to the bank as a boy and hearing the teller ask whether his mother was "good for five dollars."

Then, in and after the Crash of 1929, Graham's investment partnerships were almost wiped out. He went on to build one of the greatest investing track records of the 20th century, but he never forgot the lessons of loss:

Don't invest using borrowed money.
Never pay too much for the prospect of future profits.
Never count on greater fools to bail you out of reckless risks.
Above all, your results depend much less on how markets behave than on how you behave.
As fear fills the air and financial markets around the world continue to totter, do yourself a favor and read -- or reread -- what I consider the most important paragraph about investing Graham ever wrote. It may, in fact, be the most important paragraph about investing anyone has ever written:
Peter; Publish if you wish. Rod

Q: With the DOW down 10% and NASQ down 24% YTD , where would the TSX be ex energy after its 20%+ rise is removed ? Also can you please supply support levels with a bad/worse case scenario for the DJ ,NASD and the S&P with the FED rising rates another 150 to 300 bps ( six or seven more hikes)?

Q: Stagflation - not sure if that’s on the horizon or not but what is the strategy of it is?
I am a buy and hold investor but feel I should hold off on putting more in for the time being. Or maybe keep averaging in over a year?

Q: I have just made a charitable donation of securities. Normally I would replace them in my portfolio with a new buy. Is it a bad idea to put money in the market now, or should I just go with it and hope there isn't too much of a continued downdraft?

Thanks.

Q: Peter; If this smells like,looks like and act likes capitulation- do you think it is ? Thanks. Rod

Q: Hi 5i

I'm far too naive/optimistic to believe we are headed for seriously tough times ahead - just what will it take for markets to settle down a bit and what indicators do you monitor to give a hint of turning a corner ?

Thanks

Q: Without knowing my asset allocation, where would you suggest putting about $50,000 to get away from losing out on inflation with savings accounts. I have free stock and etf trading brokerages at this time. Thank you.

Q: Hello Peter,
I have been meaning to get your opinion even before the two-day wild ride and this question is not based on today’s aftermath. And I will speak from both sides of the fence. As usual, I want your perspective.
You typically respond to reader’s questions with a 5-year outlook. However, I think that the 5 yr business plan is outdated except maybe for utilities and commodity producers. And even then, with instantaneous data enabling policy definition, the peak to trough and back for business cycles are short.
High growth companies typically do not have a moat as they rely on transformative technology as the enabler. Today Amazon finds its digital commerce saturating and looks to cloud services for growth. Shopify is looking at vertical integration with logistics and financial services while the world moves towards open-source digital commerce. Game, set, match.
Now I step to the other side of the fence. Probability of a soft landing -very small? The fed cannot control supply but can control demand. Housing, lumber, commodities consumption diminishes just as supply ramps up in an inflationary environment hoping to absorb costs. Discretionary, industrials slow down and drag commodities.
Where am I going? If my thinking is correct, my investment decision should be based on a 2yr or shorter period return. So, between now April 5 and the end of seasonal strength next Feb; is it tech- SHOP and TOI, or Energy and Commodities? What about Gold and Silver? Is it NVDA and CRWD or QCOM and MSFT? And I am not looking to hedge but make portfolio changes, swinging for the fences. Or is it too late for sell in May?
I look forward to your opinion.
Regards

Q: I see the VIX is around 35 today (May 2/22). I seem to remember that it was reasonable to consider to start buying again when it hit 40. Your thoughts?

Thanks...Steve

PS...Please remember to ring the bell when we hit bottom.

Q: Hi 5i,

Has there ever been a time (in relatively modern history) that the central banks have actually been raising rates in a recession?

For all the talk the banks have done about raising rates, very little has actually been done.

Thanks!
David

Q: Hi Team,

Something doesn't add up to me:

1. The USD has been exceptionally strong why are commodities also so strong (I think it might be a supply/supply chain issue)?

2. Wholesale inventories are also very high (stocking up due to supply chain fears)?

I feel that the inflation is artificial and once consumers reach the limit they can afford there will be massive demand destruction and disinflation/deflation as inventories are overstocked.

What is going on?

Q: What signs can be identified and where can they be found to illustrate that inflation fears have peaked? It will be obvious to some but I don't want to miss the boat.
Thanks for sharing your experience, wisdom and judgement. We recognize that it has been a tough slog for 5i over the past few months.

Q: Hello!

I'm fully invested in the market (just turned 30) and have a small cash cushion on the side. I'm making 6 figures and have all my RRSPs in indexes and TFSA in growth stocks. Went from $100,000 to $65,000 in the last few months in that acct. I wont be using any of the money I'm investing for 10+ years and I'm not really bothered by the drops. My plan is to keep investing monthly in indexes and your picks for my TFSA and non registered account. I will not be selling. Is this a good plan ? Anything else high-level I should be aware of. PS I have no debt and can save half my income and my job is very secure!