Investment Q&A

Q: for the whole year when you get a question on a stock, you have been saying the same thing-we like the company but we need a better market backdrop,we think its worth holding.
but the reality is the market backdrop is not getting better-its getting worse, actually far worse and it could continue well into 2023 and 2024-and a recession is obvious if not already happening.
personally i have liquidated everything except some oil and gas stocks and some long dated options,. i also think your comments and bi weekly updates are way to positive.
remember jerome powell has gone of the rails and has numerous flip flops and macklem is not much better-can you comment.dave

Q: The TSX solidly outperformed the SPX from early 1999 to early 2009 and the SPX solidly outperformed the TSX from then until early 2020 and we’ve been chopping around since.

Is it time for the TSX to outperform the SPX again, for at least a few years? Is this essentially a question of how strong will tech be going forward?

I noticed that during the TSX outperformance from 1999 to 2009 oil went from $11 to $140. So maybe it’s also a question of where oil is going.

Q: Now that Powell has come out with a higher-for-longer interest rate plan at Jackson Hole, any thoughts on when high growth tech shares might finally begin to recover? 6 months? A year? Two years? Thx.

Q: Hello, Any thoughts/insights on the jump in XBC today? I have a huge loss in this stock, bought way too many shares at $4.35. I'm wondering if this might be the time to get out or whether there may be some upside from here? Thank you.

Q: Hi 5i, What are the chances of a recession in Canada in the next 6 months, and what is your reasoning please?

Q: Retired, dividend-income investor. I'm just trying to figure out where we are at in this investment cycle. In my opinion we appear to have bottomed and are now starting to see equities on the rise...but then again, it might be a head fake, bear market rally. Time will tell. Then we face the potential recession predictions...soft landing...hard landing?

So, forget all of the investment jargon for a moment and assume we have either bottomed or do indeed retest that bottom and then resume the rise in equities. Then what happens after that, when some kind of a recession possibly hits us. What do equities do? If recessions are usually short lived and markets are looking ahead 6-12 months, what then? Do equities sell off or...?

I am normally an extreme buy-and-hold investor who sets his long term asset allocation and follows it, with very little cash on hand...maybe 2-3%. I will probably do absolutely nothing with however you answer...just trying to understand the market dynamics. Or, there is the chance I might raise my cash up to 5% at the most, but that is market timing. AND, the investment cash usually burns a hole in my pocket and I historically reinvest into some falling knives. So...I usually just watch the action and do nothing besides some minor trims-adds to my core positions to maintain my target asset allocation.

Sorry for the ramble. What's your crystal ball say for the next year or so?
Thanks for your help...much appreciated...Steve

Q: I’m generally sold on the US and Canadian markets for the long term due to historical superior returns and risk versus Europe , EM and Asia and for the most part a better environment for doing business. What would be your suggested allocation between Canada and US outside of non registered accounts ( this I have 100% Canada due to high quality names and tax advantages).
Thank-you.

Q: With the Canadian trading so low, do I assume correctly that this would not be a good time to buy US stocks? Does the same assumption apply to hedged investments such as ETFs and CDRs? Thank you.

Q: The Canadian dollar vs Euro has appreciated quite a bit over the last year +. Can you provide 3 or 4 names that look attractive both from a growth perspective and possible upside with Euro vs Cdn dollar FX in the future.

Q: With the upcoming balance sheet tightening by the fed does it make sense to have dry powder in the event that markets drop again significantly. If one is fully invested what percentage of cash would you usually recommend? Thanks. Shyam

Q: An article in the Globe calls this a bear market rally - What do you think the chances are he might be right?? Thanks , Jim

Q: Greetings,

Some people believe Mr Rosenberg gets out of bed from the wrong side on more days than not but his negative market reasoning seem very fair to me .... or not?

Are you able to comment on his newspaper article note of caution?

What is your gut feeling on what the markets may do over the next 6 months?

What do you think the chances are of testing the recent 52 week lows?

Thank you !

Q: Greetings 5i,

What are your thoughts on INTEL? What are your thougths on the domestic tailwinds via Biden Administration and roughly 75B in federal support for domestic chip manufacturers? Seems almost like the industry is being considered a matter of national sercurity in the US and will back the chip makers. Are there other companies who stand to do well in this environment?

Cheers!

Q: What are 5i’s thoughts and analysis on $CAD vs $USD?

The Financial Post article below highlights forecasts of 5% upside (loonie towards .80c usd). What do you expect? Time-frame, certainty in closing the gap, etc.

https://financialpost.com/executive/executive-summary/posthaste-why-the-canadian-dollar-isnt-done-yet

Would now/months from now be a good time to convert some $USD to $CAD (i.e. moving over US equity index/stocks in USD to the same holdings in $CAD).

Q: You recently issued a questionnaire which asked for various market predictions and made one or more responses mandatory, which precluded a closing explanation. So here it is. When Putin stops slaughtering Ukrainians or better still kicks the bucket along with his chum Blatherov, and Russia agrees to terms and conditions which obliges them to conform to a rules based system for trade and adopts democracy as a system of government, the equity markets might have a chance of recovering, providing China brings North Korea to heel, stops lying, misleading, maneuvering for lands and waters it is not entitled to or cheating on a whole slate of activities, some of which intrude into our systems of democracy, and likewise agrees and accepts conditions which oblige it to conform to agreed rules for trade, providing Iran does not overturn all of the above. Until then it is a crap shoot.

Q: Is there a China bank crisis looming or already here. What is your opinion on the effect on the world economy, commodities, and stocks. Thanks for your insights.

Q: As we progress through the dog days of summer and possibly approach the winter of our discontent, the number of questions being asked of 5i seem to be lower at this time. Is this a summertime normal occurrence? Otherwise, is it possible that the number of questions asked day by day could be a useful metric of investor interest in the stock markets. If so, then as the number of questions increase, could this indicate that the market is in the road to recovery. This would not be a “bet the farm” metric but would appreciate your thoughts on the matter.
Thanks for your valuable service.
Cyril

Q: With growth and upside being the case for buying stocks with no earnings and having a lot of them losing 80% in value over buying a stock with good earnings and less growth, is it the same story now for investors to buy the growth stocks that they may be down 80% and hope that the stock can come back when the market gets overpriced again, or lower your greed and be happy with a 10% yearly return.
Thanks again

Q: I get raising the interest rates to stem inflation. However most economists are signaling a good chance of a recession or slowdown by year end. That obviously would call for lowering the rates. Is this scenario likely.

Q: In another question, you answered: "We believe that inflation will moderate into 2023, interest rate hikes will be paused sometime in Q3 or Q4 of this year, and a recession to last until Q1 or Q2 of 2023."

With this expectation, what are some good sectors and stocks (trading on the TSX) to be in in this environment?