Investment Q&A

Q: Hi,
Inflation came in hot again today in the U.S. Do you guys have a view of the dot plot? Some economists see the Fed hiking rates 5-6 times this year with a 50 BPS thrown in for good measure. Others see a less aggressive FED with 3-4 rate hikes.

Also, the renewable energy names all seem to be making a nice bottom in the past month or so. Could they be signaling that the rate hikes may now be baked into these names?
Thanks again.

Q: I expected a blood bath this am with CPI at 7.5% and 10 year hitting 2%. The reaction is surprisingly mild. Even ARKK is up! Your thoughts please.
In spite of your 'do nothing headline' I checked out in January. Thinking of averaging back in or waiting for the Fed in March. What would you suggest?
Thanks Peter.

Q: David Burrows is one of my favourite analysts. On BNN today, he indicated that he feels we have transitioned from a period of falling interest rates that has seen a few sectors, particularly commodities stocks, perform very poorly, while other sectors, particularly technology, have been bid up to very high levels. He believes we are into a new inflationary cycle that will greatly benefit different sectors in the long term, particularly commodities like metals and O & G stocks. He feels that money managers are using high priced technology and other similar stocks that worked in a deflationary environment as sources of cash and putting that money into sectors that will benefit from inflation, and that this could go on for years. Wondering what your take would be on this as a likelihood over the next several years.

Q: At the end of 2019 the U.S. 10 year yield was 1.92% and the Nasdaq closed at 8972.
Today the U.S. 10 year bond yield is 1.96% and the Nasdaq is up over 60% to 14,736
I realize that earnings have increased since the end of 2019 but I wonder in your opinion is the Nasdaq over priced and is due for a severe correction?j

Q: Hi 5i, what are the best sectors on the TSX to invest in now and the next 3 months and why? Thanks.

Q: I'm a little stuck on what I should do now. Sitting at around 5% cash. I'm a growth investor 10+ yrs. With the market backdrop currently posing a headwind for growth stocks, how long does this process/rotation usually play out? Months vs years? I'm holding some value stocks but definitely lean more towards growth. What would be some questions I should ask myself through this process before I allocate my cash? Do I add more to my value stocks to create a barbell strategy or keep nibbling away at growth stocks and ignore the short term market noise? I keep gravitating back to growth names during my searches. Thanks!

Q: In one of your answer of yesterday, you said: Right now, growth companies, relative to large companies, are the cheapest they have been in nearly 30 years.

Can you talk more about this fact and give examples please.

Thank you :)

Q: Hello,

How much is the market at risk if Russia invades Ukraine. Could we see a significant pullback and would you want to own a certain asset class to protect your portfolio from this geopolitical event.

Q: I would very much value your opinion /comments about Larry Swedroe's October 11, 2013 article in ETF.com entitled "The 'Black Hole Of Investing'" ( https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/20092-the-black-hole-of-investing.html ) about why small cap growth stocks are the worst-performing segment of the investment market. And why you recommend them in your Growth portfolio (IWO) instead of small cap value, for example - Thank you.

Q: Looking to diversify geographically by adding US names. Do you see any reason NOT to use approx. 20% of my cash to buy USD tomorrow to buy US stocks?

Q: Hello 5I,
I have one spot open in my portfolio for a high growth stock. I bought a bunch in the pullback but have $$$ to add ideally a long term core holding. The question is do I jump in now after so much has ran so much so quick? Or wait for volatility to create more opportunities. I am looking for a screaming buy in order to spend this money if that gives you any context.
Thanks

Q: Hello,
I have a general question regarding Portfolio Analytics.
At what point or range should one proceed with a rebalance either for the geographical weightings and/or the sector weightings?
For example, my geographical weightings show the following:

Increase Canada by 0.85%
Decrease U.S. by 0.65%
Increase International by 0.35%

Similarly for sector, i.e.:

Increase Technology by 0.21%
Reduce Real Estate by 0.49%
Increase Utilities by 1.64%
Reduce Health Care by 1.37%

All other sectors fall within the ranges shown above to one degree or another - only Consumer Cyclical at an increase of 0.07% is really close.
So, as a "Rule of Thumb". what kind of range should we accept as being close enough to not worry about? 0.25%, 0.50%, etc.?
For what it is worth, the portfolio is large enough that a 0.0015% adjustment would be acceptable in terms of keeping the trading cost at an acceptable level as per previous comments you have made pertaining to that aspect of the process - if that makes any sense ....
Many thanks as always!!
Cheers,
Mike

Q: I have some new money to invest in my TFSA. I am well diversified in my other accounts, and am now wondering what to add to my TFSA. I am a senior so I would say about a 5 year time frame that this would stay in the TFSA, maybe more.
Any suggestions you have would be helpful.
Thanks so much for your help in the past, it has always proved very lucrative.
Shirley

Q: Hi folks. I am at a 47% loss in a registered account. It now is only a small percentage. Might it be a good idea to sell and circle back in about a year. What could be a better replacement?
Also January often tells us what kind of an investing year we will have as does the 2nd year of a presidency. What are your thoughts? It appears to be setting up for a tough year.
Thank you for your guidance as always

Q: This month end rally maybe linked with buying by fund managers either to be fully invested or by artificially pushing up prices to base their bonuses upon...or short cover rally or new money entering the market...what's your view?

Q: Regarding Jerome Powell, is quoted today as saying he "Pointed to an economy in 'a different situation' from the last interest-rate hiking cycle, highlighting a tighter labour market, the fastest inflation since the 1980's,"
The 1980's were great for interest -- I locked in a GIC for 5 years at 17% annual compound growth.
For the outlook today, can you provide any advice on what to do an what not to do give the outlook above,
Thanks for your valued advice.

Q: Countering inflation, can you recommend your favourite 6 companies in Canada and the US with pricing power (dividend payers would be appreciated) Thanks!

Q: Hello Peter,
I think of your investment style as growth oriented long-term investor. But at the same time, you have been a portfolio manager and adjusted portfolios to manage yearly returns as well. You have experienced and managed similar downturns as they go through corrections in a rising rate environment. I would appreciate your opinion on how to adjust the portfolio in the current environment.
With the US (and Canada) central bank expected to raise rates about 4 times, the dollar index should be strong? That should not be good for commodities, particularly for gold and silver. But then inflation is going to be high too. What does it mean for gold/silver stocks and how would you adjust the portfolio weight as of now; and the bias between large (AEM, FNV,PAAS) and small caps such as KRR, MMX and WDO.
And the growth stocks, in particular technology stocks- FAANNGS (including NVDA) and other very high valued stocks such as AFRM,UPST,CRWD, DOCU,ROKU,TTD etc. I feel they will rebound but not much. Would you hold them through to the year end or rotate into traditional financials, commodities, and cyclicals in the near term. If rotating, would you do it immediately? Would be grateful if you could include your suggestion for the individual stocks too.
Finally, the persistent downward drift of ATVI – am I missing something? Did we learn anything from the microsoft call yesterday?
I know this has multiple questions and you deduct credits accordingly. I am very interested in learning from you - how you would go about portfolio adjustments and beat the market come December 2022.
Regards
Rajiv

Q: I never bought a REIT because I own another investment condo in Toronto. Would you factor that to your entire portfolio or add another REIT unrelated to residential like MPW, AMT or something industrial? If you would add regardless of having another income property, what would you add?
The condo rent has positive cash flow and the equity is about 3 percent of my overall portfolio. Analytics suggests a 4 percent REIT holding.

Q: What are you thoughts on the FED meeting today? It sounded like the Interest rate path has not been decided yet, and would be revisited at the next meeting.

Do you think they can continue to kick the can down the road, and what are the implication if they keep doing so?