Investment Q&A

Q: Dear Peter:

On surface this looks like a simple and even a "dumb" question. However I am struggling with this question as it impacts on not just my portfolio but almost everyone's!

What is a Bubble? Are there any acceptable definitions of a "Bubble"? Is Bubble a Technical Analysis based concept or a Fundamental Analysis based concept? Do they share any similarities? Is a Bubble applicable to all of the market or is it confined to just one domain? (Gold is in a Bubble but not Silver, not yet) Finally is the definition of a Bubble Static or Dynamic phenomenon? In other words what was a Bubble in 2000/2001 (dot com Bubble) is NOT a Bubble now!(AI phenomenon?)

Financial media gives a lot of opinions filled with "hyperbole"! "Sell now" we are in a Bubble! Others say, "No, wait till Gold hits 6000"!

It is important as one needs to sell or add in a prudent,well thought out and rational manner. Hence this question.
If you think this behooves not an answer but an article, so be it. I will wait! No problems.

Q: Hello Team 5i & Everyone,

Based on the metrics you watch, in your best estimation, do you feel that the US markets are in late cycle?

I’ve seen that there’s a “debate” that we’re either late cycle of this current run since the 2022 lows, or we’ve started a new cycle since the April 2025 low. Time will tell.

Thank you!

Sandra

Q: How do you view the current macro environment with respect to indicators that you follow. With the 20% spike in the VIX, do you view risk as elevated in the near term?

Q: Good morning. There seems to be a growing amount of chatter about the market being in a bubble. If one accepts this premise, what would be your top 2 defensive sectors and top 5 defensive stocks to build positions in? Either Canadian or US. Thanks.

Q: I would be very interested in 5i’s take on this NYT article. I try to stay away from the fear mongering, be wise and buy/hold good companies. I trust 5i after being a member from the beginning, and always come back here for an opinion, because there are too many opinions out there, and a person has to land somewhere or it’s too hard to navigate. I think we can all agree there is a correction coming sometime, and likely it’s necessary, but a 1929 type event? Please offer your ideas. Thanks! https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/13/magazine/investing-private-equity-crypto-crash-1929.html?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare

Q: What is your opinion on the recent statement by the IMF that markets could be headed for a disorderly correction given the current trade wars, increasing government debt, increased geopolitical tension and other risk factors?

Thanks Tim

Q: https://theconversation.com/todays-ai-hype-has-echoes-of-a-devastating-technology-boom-and-bust-100-years-ago-265492 How might one counter in their portfolio the risk of AI causing a market risk like electricity did in the great depression?

Q: Hi: it’s obvious that AI has boosted the market to new heights. My hypothetical question is, if AI was taken out of the equation, how well has the market performed over the last several years?

Q: What is your current assessment on American intentions to effectively take over Canada by economic dismantling? It isn’t clear to what extent Canada will be able to withstand current tariff barriers and effectively ‘fight back’ for its own interests.

Q: I am sitting on cash to invest. I have been thinking about waiting until the US and China at least come to a "partial agreement" on trade. So that we have some certainity around that and how companies can move forward. I understand there are many points on both sides to negotiate and a "final deal" could take a long time or the other issues NOT able to resolve in an agreement. What advise would you have about investing the cash now or should I wait for a partial agreement? Or should I invest now but stay out of the US stock market? Your input would be appreciated.

Q: Good morning 5i
I have done well in the past few years, as I have been close to 100 percent equities. With the time horizon shortening, however, and less time to recover from a downturn, I am considering a higher percentage of fixed income. Currently, I have a large amount of US cash. I have been fearful of the US dollar falling, and have been wondering whether I should convert those dollars into Canadian in order to buy fixed income?
Thanks

Q: Everyone, were do you see the markets going in the next three months? Clayton

Q: Good morning,

HHL is a core holding for me, and has been for some time, mainly for income (~10% yield).

I understand the pros/cons of covered call strategies. But given that this ETF is equally balanced with the largest 20 health care companies in the US, I am generally comfortable with it as a holding.

My question is this - what is your macro view of large-cap US health care stocks right now? On the one hand I get excited about the sector when factoring longer-term AI and how this will impact the space. And then I easily get caught up in the headlines that we are all seeing right now from the current administration, and the generally negative impact this is having on the individual stocks in HHL.

Curious for your views on the sector.

Thanks as always.

Q: Any news moving NTR today?

Q: Any reason that you know of for today's drop in ATRl's stock price?

Q: I am nervous about being in a bubble but like all the stocks that I own. How can I protect myself against a major correction?

Q: how much has the TSX gained year to date and what 2-3 sectors are the reason for the movement. TIA

Q: Hello

i would like to get your opinions on what investors should do given possibly an inevitable market correction.
many portfolios have gone up over 25% this year, which likely is not sustainable

should we move to bonds, if so where etc

Thank you in advance

Tim

Q: It looks like job losses in the US and Canada will increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts. The former suggest bad things going on in the economy, the latter tends to be good for stocks. Can you comment on how those factors might play out for the markets in the coming year?

Q: Dear Peter et al:

Everyone including yourselves talk about 7+ T USD on the sidelines when a question about market correction is asked. This money will step in and protect the markets from a crash. That seems to be the
thesis here.

But the huge cash reserves of big companies, (BRK for example) pension funds and various PE firms
(listed and unlisted) have ALWAYS
been a feature in the market, no?.Even during the bull or bear
market this Cash on the sidelines has been a constant, right?
So, the question is what is the range of cash on the sidelines? Can this cash on the sidelines act as a " metric" to signal Bull or Bear market?
(Just like your thesis on VIX. 40+ means buying time).

In simple terms what should be the "Normal" cash on the sidelines?!