Investment Q&A

Q: Hi 5i, in your response to Julie's question today on the economy can you provide key VIX and market levels, bond and stock, that would get you excited to deploy capital? Thx.

Q: Now that tariffs are here, and Trump is playing hardball with Ukraine and the world, can you provide thoughts on what you think the markets, US and Canadian separately, will do? How far percentage wise might each drop? Looking for time horizons of up to 3 months, a year and then beyond. Realize this is new territory but 5i should have opinions.

Q: Hi, could you list your 5-6 favourite sectors today. Also just wondering, do you see any signs of a sector rotation anytime soon? Or is it too hard to predict? Just checking cause Technology seems to have had a long and positive run, while Oil&Gas seems to have lagged for quite some time? ( I could be mistaken).
It seems to me when a sector falls out of favour it sometimes takes a long time to recover?

Q: Could you speak to the issue of how Canadian investors should respond to proposed tariffs by the Trump administration before March 4th and after March 4th, assuming tariffs are implemented. Please give an example of the type of companies you would sell and buy? Thanks

Q: How long do you expect them to last. Americans are upset, Also all the firings that are taking place, I understand PAY DOWN the HUGE US DEBT is a good idea Canada should start to pay down their debt as well,

These moves will cause Republicans to loose seats in 2 years time next Election. RAK

Q: Hi 5i,
I am usually not one to panic when it comes to investing but the steep and sharp decline of the stock market this morning (Thank you Trump) has me very concerned. Is this a time to sell stocks with any gains left or just sit tight and ride it out.

Q: "These five factors, if they become pervasive, could result in the U.S. economy going from super strong to mixed to weak or even really weak in a very short period of time, depending on how things play out. This is likely what caused all the investor concern over the past two weeks, and without some better clarity from Washington (which seems highly unlikely), investors may want to temper their expectations for a big market rally this year."

I liked your article. Would you say this is an expansion of the message that Warren Buffet has been making to the government? Also, you say that maybe we shouldn't expect a stockmarket expansion. But, I notice that a lot of investors seem to be sitting this inning out, as well, waiting to see what happens. Are you favourable to this option under current conditions?
thanks for your great company

Q: This may be a challenge to the usual 5i analysis.

According to reports the so-called “ Mar-a Lago Accord” seeks to have the Treasury only issue zero interest rate 100 year bonds, and they would force allies and trading partners to buy those bonds. The intention is to reduce interest rates and thereby help the fiscal deficit and reduce the value of the dollar ( the joke of course is that Trump also wants a strong dollar and threatens countries that try to settle in anything but the US$).

I have to roll my eyes at this nonsense. Cash is a zero interest perpetual bond. Basically they want bond owners to hold cash. If they want that ,they should simply stop issuing Treasury bonds. Of course if they did that they would rip the clothes off the emperor.

In the context of MAGA thinking this is an attack on Fed Independence, however it is also inflationary in the way Q.E. was inflationary (asset inflation).

I have to give the Republicans credit for coming up with yet another novel way to enrich those of us living off our capital.

As subscribers to 5i Research we will need advice on how best to take advantage of this new investing ecosystem? Over to you 5i!

Q: Based on the current market situation, what level of cash would be apropriate to have ?, and if wait and see it is the best approach now , what is the best parking place for cash ?

Q: I have decided to orientate my portfolio more towards the US, while keeping approximately 30% Canadian. I am also looking at India for my first international investment. Most of these stocks are asset light and large cap.
In the US the sectors are non bank financials, tech, and industrials. In Canada I have chosen large caps with significant non Canada revenue.
My dividend income would decrease but I can handle that. This would be an equal weight portfolio.

What do you think of this approach and of the individual stocks?
Should I just buy an SPY 500 etf for the US ?
Is FFH appropriate for India or is there an ETF you would recommend ?
Thanks .Derek

Q: Another Covid type in China, Bird Flue in Chickens ,Cattle, Humans ,Measles spreading Egg Prices Tariff's Inflationary No More Fed cuts this year

Anything else. A correction is here. Wait for a buying opportunity

RAK

Q: Is there some place in the Web where I can see all the individual transactions for a stock for the day?

TMxmoney will give me the last 50 or so, but not the history for the whole day.

Thanks
Mark

Q: It seems that every day the new from south of the border gets crazier. Today (Friday) the markets reacted very negatively. Let's assume the news continues to get crazier. What do you think the markets will do. Is most of the insanity already priced in? Just how bad do you think it can get?

Q: Hi Team,
Admittedly, my portfolio is on the growthy, aggressive side of things being tech heavy with some smaller cap names. It now seems like daily I wake up to another name in the headlines dropping 10,20,30% with the slide on a few names continuing . Is this a sign the market is about to topple over cause this is what it’s feeling like. Or is the positive view 5i held for the year still in place? U assume as usual the move is to hold steady and ride the wave?
Thanks ,
Shane

Q: Let us assume there is market downturn of 20% or greater. I am a retired senior and want to be cautious. I have TBills in US and Can.;
Also some BN, DSG , AEM and bonds like ZMMK. Also 10% in ZSP and VFV , XIU.
Any red flags here and suggest some additions. TAKE AS MANY CREDITS as needed to answer this. Thanks. Helen

Q: In a recent response, you mentioned that under the Trump administration the industrial sector is likely to suffer. Can you please explain why. Thank you!

Q: Hi, I'm seeing what appears to be rather large moves in these two stocks, so am wondering what I'm missing. Or are these sorts of daily movements going to be the "new normal" going forward? I'd like to hear your thoughts - thanks and keep up the great work!

Q: For now, investors seem to have decided to fade the chaos of Trumpenomics. However, one has to wonder how long the massive contradictions will be ignored.
Scott Bessent (Treasury), the man who wrote the report that identified the contradictions in the UK economy that made George Soros $billions, certainly must see the dangers, and yet, he is the source of one of the major contradictions, when he says the Fed shouldn’t lower rates while Trump demands the opposite.

Is Fed independence under attack and how will investors read this?

Are tariffs, as claimed, for revenue or to reduce imports? They can’t be both.
But if the tax cuts are to be permanent, $3 trillion in revenue has to be found somewhere.

Will Trump let a gnat like the Parliamentarian, or the Chairman of the Federal Reserve, stand in his way?

If, at some point, investors focus on the issues around tariffs-as-revenue, or threats to Fed independence they may begin to worry, and decide to sell equities.

The cost to hedge against such an event would be prohibitively expense given one wouldn’t know whether or when it would occur.

I’m sure 5i is considering these issues, but here is what I am pondering. How does an investor with a large equity portfolio manage this kind of risk? Would growth stocks be hardest hit? Are etfs better than individual stocks? What defensive stocks are likely least affected? Are there equities that would do well in such a scenario? How would bonds perform?

Q: In the context of the sector allocations question asked by Jerry today, you gave the Utilities sector a weight of 20%. Is this really what you meant? It seems pretty high to me. Besides, when we add all the sectors, the sum is 110%. Thank you

Q: Hi Peter and Team,

I’m a very pleased user of Portfolio Analytics, as well as 5i of course.

Till now, I never changed my allocations using “Custom Allocations”. Previously, I used one of the suggested allocations.

In this era of tariffs, I fear they will throw a monkey wrench into our economy as well as in the US. For example, even though tariffs on steel and aluminum aren’t yet in place, some Canadian firms have already lost orders. “The threat of tariffs is, in itself, a tariff”.

As an example, you recently responded to a member’s question and suggested that the Industrial sector could/would be vulnerable to tariffs.

Please suggest “Trump-proof” sector weightings that takes into account the uncertainty that is rampant with Trump 2.0.

Thanks as always for you assistance in helping us to make informed decisions.