Investment Q&A

Q: Ruchir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International and Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Breakout Capital suggests that the US$ may have peaked and that it will start to decline in 2023 due to nat'l debt. The narrative was suggesting that USA role as world leader is starting to wane. Conversely, if the C$ strengthens, Cdn exports will be negatively impacted. Does 5I have an opinion on the matter?

Carl

Q: Hello,
Many experts are predicting a downturn in the market for at least the first half of 2023 and possible even longer. With that in mind, and if the Feds and Bank of Canada pause in Q1,... the market will stabilize and GIC rates may pull back. In fact RBC GIC's short term rates are about the same as longer term. Therefore, is this a good time to start buying Bonds ETFs with the hope that as rates start coming down the stock price will start moving higher? Am I correct in this assumption? And, which ones would you suggest? short, mid, or long term.? As well, what are you thoughts on Prime Linked Cashable GIC's ( offered by RBC)? Finally, would you buy a 1 year GIC currently at 4.65% ( by RBC) ?
Thanks
CR

Q: Hi Team,
My thoughts are on what to do with a portfolio that was caught "tech heavy" before the recent fallout. My opinion is...that if the holdings were "winners" in the previous environment, and will survive until the next cycle up for the sector happens, then at this point it is best to just hold on to the positions, as opposed to try to sell for big losses and diversify at this point when the entire portfolio fell 50% in 2022. My hopes are to wait for a big recovery in my holdings at least somewhat...then after that diversify to more appropriate levels. Am I wrong in this thinking? Tough call I know...but what do the odds point to here? Thanks!

Q: Hello Peter,

When the market has been trending up and with positive returns for the year one puts further investment money in what has been working. However when the market has been trending down and with a negative return, it makes sense to put money in sectors and markets that have been battered?
In ball park terms the TSX returned a negative 8.5 % S&P negative 19 and Nasdaq negative 33.
What would you think of rebalancing a portfolio that started 2022 50% Canada and 50% USA (mostly Nasdaq) to now go 25% Canada and 75% US markets with a bias towards nasdaq, s&p in the ratio 4:1? Or somewhere in that territory?

Also what % would you consider prudent to allocate to speculative stocks (for a tech/growth oriented investor) now that high valuations are no longer what they used to be.

Looking forward to your thoughts on the subject.
Regards
Rajiv

Q: US stocks in my RRSP: I strongly believe that 2023 shall be another year with high volatility, for numerous reasons (world economy ,geostrategic factors,debts,China
slowdown,etc..).In this perspective,I increased the proportion of US covered call ETF using call options on 100% of portfolio in order to : 1) reduce volatility et 2) maintain significant dividends during this coming period.When the market will stabilise ,I will reduce the % of these ETF in order to increase the % of Cies stocks and of "conventional ETFs".Please comment this strategy ,plus your point of vue will be appreciated since I know that "no one can predict the future" ! regards,J-Y

Q: Larry Berman being interviewed by Bloomberg indicated that we are in for another year similar to 2002. He had numerous charts to support his opinion. They reference the massive amount of debt that the US has taken on to deal with COVID and the wars it supports financially (Ukraine). The interest which is higher than usual is going to make things even more difficult to pay back. Sounds pretty scary to me. Thank you again

Q: I see there are stocks with an RSI near 30 and at a 52 week low; BNS, TRP, BEPC, and BCE. Also, WCN is not at a 52 week low but has an RSI at 30. I am very tempted to add to my positions at these levels. How much weight would you place on a stock's RSI and 52 week level?
Many thanks, Dennis.

Q: I was wondering if you could tell me how much the Canadian markets are being impacted by zero to date trading options. According to an interview I heard on TD , the US Option Exchange is putting out options with daily expiry. Reference was made to this practice before the 2008 market crash.
I would appreciate your thoughts on this topic.

Thank you.

Q: this is a question about buying us stocks when exchange is high to make sure I understand correctly.

Buy us stock when us exchange is high; example rate of exchange 1.40 means 100 shares @ 10 cost me 1 000 x 1.4 = 1400 $ can
stock price doubles from 10 to 20, means I should have twice as much money BUT if I
Sell when us exchange is low, 1.0 means a 100 shares @ 20 gets me 2000 x 1.0 = 2000 $ can
Price per unit doubled from 10$ to 20$ but actual return to you only went up by 600$ due to exchange rate effect.

so this (presently) would be a poor time to buy us stock due to high exchange rate. CORRECT ?

the corollary to that is: the best time to buy a US stock is when the exchange rate is low or at par with american dollar. CORRECT ??

Since what matters is final amount in my pocket. should I use historical average U.S. exchange rate as a rule of thumb for when exchange is a "good" time to consider american stocks and buy when below ? example historical exchange rate is 1.2 and buy when 1.1

what are historical average U.S. exchange rates over many decades ??

thanks

Ernie

Q: Tough question for sure, but disregarding other personal factors (eg, diversification etc), if you could buy 3 Cdn stocks and 3 US stocks given YOUR assessment of the investment/economic landscape, what would they be? Let's say the only parameter is performance over the next 12 months.

Q: Hello Peter,
I know you may not provide 100 percent guarantee on this answer but am now getting worried. I am not very impressed at our investment managers (when reading news papers or watching BNN) as it seems not many are doing proper research.. For example, AQN was a go to stock but all of a sudden with bad results, everyone is bailing out.. it was obvious that with high rates, utilities would be hit ; why is this a big surprise now and most managers are bailing out.. xbc wow what a stock to buy ; all of a sudden it is bankrupt.. With BAM and BN, BIP, i am not worried about the stock price. I think the leadership is smart but i am worried about potential accounting issues. I know you have said that the issue has been brought up before, but in your opinion, is it something to be concerned about in terms of reducing 5 percent weights. I would hate the shoe to drop again.. if you owned the companies in Brookfield, would you be worried about accounting issues? Since you are not pushing the stock purchases, i am thinking your answer is more objective.. Please advise.

Q: Retired dividend-income investor. Is this how you spell "capitulation? The VIX is still pretty low...not even at 30 yet, let alone 40.

Thoughts?

Just sittin' here on my hands for the most part...doing a tiny bit of buying.

Q: A short while back there was a 5i comment that you thought there was a good chance that small cap stocks would rally early in the new year. Wondered why you thought that? At the moment there appears to be a great deal of fear and pessimism in the markets . Many good companies are getting pounded. And technical charts are pointing downward. So , within this environment where it is hard to resist not selling everything and moving to the sidelines, what reason is there for small caps to rebound?

Q: Bonds / fixed income are down substantially
Do you see a recovery in their values in 2023 and can you support your view
Thanks

Q: I thought CPI was the root of all the evil afflicting this market and to me this was confirmed Nov 10 and 11 when the market rocketed upward apparently based on not a bad Oct cpi. Then we get an even lower cpi for Nov (on Dec 13) but then followed by 2 days of fairly hard down markets. What is your take on this? I know the rate hike and fed comments were in there too but to me they were all pretty much in the expected range. And it's not like talk of a recession is news. Thank you.

Q: So where is that market report/Dec. 13 available on your website to read that the other member/Iulian praised so much?

Q: Hi Peter,

After the fed outlook for the economy and the fed rate 2023 what is your opinion of a near term price movement of TLT? Do you think the fed was setting the expectation of a hard landing / recession without acknowledging that the fed rate is restrictive enough already?
Regards
Rajiv

Q: Greetings: On a few occasions, I can remember in an answer to a question it was stated that it is best if possible to avoid trading when the market first opens and 30 minutes before closing. Recently, it was stated that a lot of institutional and algorithmic trading is done in these time frames. Wouldn't that provide me with more liquidity, and in turn possible better purchase and sale prices? I cannot find the specific questions and answers, so if I am quoting you incorrectly, please excuse me. Please enlighten me on this subject. Also, could I get a link to Eric Nuttall's appearance on the money show on Dec 1. Thank you. BEN.

Q: Please explain "the Santa Claus Rally" and the period of time it generally occurs.

Q: I am wondering about my cash position. Given so many things affecting investor confidence how long do you expect to maintain the cash levels in each of the three model portfolios? What might cause you to make changes?

Thank you,

Mike