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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: In today's Globe and Mail article, David Rosenberg argues that stocks are overpriced and concludes that "bond yields and equity prices need to adjust lower in coming months, quarters, and maybe even years. This means asset allocators should be taking profits in the overpriced equity market and placing the proceeds in oversold Treasury notes and bonds."
Do you agree with this view?

I will appreciate your insight with respect to changing our asset mix based on Rosenberg's views.
Read Answer Asked by Terry on August 10, 2023
Q: I've been expecting utilities-and-telecoms to see better price action on the prospect of stable rates, but today's reversal suggests a continuing downtrend. Likewise, I've been expecting financials to continue to look past these same fears (and there has been progress), but now wonder if we've reached a plateau.

Given that these sectors 'should' be responsive to different forces, which would you pick for a quicker and more robust upturn? More specifically, should we expect utilities to continue to suffer until rates actually go down by some significant percentage?
Read Answer Asked by John on August 09, 2023
Q: I hold some TLT and have obviously entered into too early. But I am prepared to be patient.
My question is more about the Billionaire Ackman article last week where he states he is shorting the 30 year treasuries. Now, is he doing that simply because he feels the it will be a long time before the Feds actually start lowering rates or, is there something else out there that I do not understand about long treasuries?
Read Answer Asked by Joe on August 08, 2023
Q: Hi Team,
Shop is falling again today despite earnings beats and price target increases across the board. Is it a good time to buy the shares from todays profit takers? Also in general do you see this market sell off sparked by the fitch downgrade of the US credit rating a buying opp? There has been some brutal sell offs over the last 2 days. Which names would you be looking to buy in this weakness? Thanks

Shane
Read Answer Asked by Shane on August 03, 2023
Q: Hi,

This is a BIG picture question. I don't see any questions so far on 5i.

First Japan apparently makes an about turn in their interest rates? The articles that I read went above my head! And now Fitch downgrades the US credit rating. Again too much for me to understand.

What does it all mean to ordinary people like me? Many of my friends who are all seniors mostly say, cash is King!

I know you like to be fully invested.

Any words of wisdom?
Many thanks in advance.

Mano.
Read Answer Asked by Savalai on August 03, 2023
Q: Lost returns from listening to esteemed, perennial doomsayers. Includes David Rosenberg.

https://ritholtz.com/2023/08/10-wednesday-am-reads-341/
Read Answer Asked by Joseph on August 03, 2023
Q: Everyone, where will the market go once the DOW breaks above the previous high and when will it break above the previous high? Clayton
Read Answer Asked by Clayton on August 01, 2023
Q: Hi Peter,

In a long-term account (20+ years), could you please describe what asset allocation you would choose (including %)? Would you stick to stocks and bonds and gold, or are there any other asset classes you'd want exposure to?

Thanks as always!
Read Answer Asked by Chris on July 31, 2023
Q: I am working with my son (age under 50) to help him put together a stock portfolio. Considering that the US and Canadian markets have significantly different sector weightings what would you recommend for reasonable diversification in a growth weighted portfolio? I thought you had dealt with this type of question a number of times before but haven't found previous responses.
Thanks, Hugh
Read Answer Asked by Hugh on July 31, 2023
Q: Peter; The perennial “ bear”, aka Rosenberg, basically just trashed the BOC last rate bump, saying the 2% level , they want is there. Could you comment on whether you agree or don’t and why ? Thanks.
Rod (;Publish if you wish) .
Read Answer Asked by Rodney on July 21, 2023
Q: My portfolio is recovering well, but still down about 5% down from its high because of the small caps that I own. They are all cheap and profitable companies, but some are still down 50%. If we go into recession will they crash? How should I deal with these companies? Should I be taking losses now to protect from future losses? I just don't understand the market right now because usually small caps are the first to recover. My original plan was to sell 1/2 after they recovered but that isn't happening.
Read Answer Asked by Pamela on July 19, 2023
Q: What evidence is there that the rise in interest rates have been the reason why inflation has declined?
Read Answer Asked by Murray on July 11, 2023
Q: In many questions asked there seems to be some expectation that interest rates will go down at some point in the relative near future. Do you think this is a valid expectation? Employment remains strong; housing market prices are holding; with some limited exceptions we have not seen significant layoffs…. Why would the Bank of Canada reduce rates anytime soon? I suggest that we had such low rates for so long, people expect that to be the new norm. We are only now
approaching the level of rates that were ‘normal’ for a very long time. What am I missing?
Read Answer Asked by Mark on July 11, 2023
Q: your thoughts on Bitcoin? Not that they are right but it seems many huge asset managers are becoming interested again. For now, I believe Bitcoin is a store of value and is yet to make the tranition to unit of account. In terms of asset allocation, would it make sense to allocate a small percentage of one's portfolio 'in case it catches on'? Do you see an asymmetric upside vs limited downside and would that not justify a small position?
Read Answer Asked by Neelesh on July 10, 2023
Q: I hold a significant percentage of my portfolio in XEC and am happy to have the exposure to add diversification. It has been a bit of a drag on returns for a while now however, and it has me wondering — what are some plausible scenarios moving forward where emerging will outperform? Have there been significant episodes in the past 100 years or so where emerging was at the top of the index return lists?
Read Answer Asked by Andrew on July 06, 2023
Q: Would a concentrated portfolio of 10stocks made up of large cap companies regarded as compounders from 5 sectors provide adequate diversification for a RESP ? If not, could you suggest a minimal modification to add diversification?

Thank you
Read Answer Asked by Richard on July 04, 2023
Q: What gains should an investor expect if they are in the markets for decades. Assuming they have a diversified portfolio. Clayton
Read Answer Asked by Clayton on July 04, 2023
Q: Is the 'cardboard' metric a real thing? When cardboard sales dip, it is a precursor to an economic slowdown?
Read Answer Asked by Gregory on June 29, 2023
Q: Hi Peter, My question is about returns in the S&P during a four year Presidents term. On average what are the markets (ie S&P 500 ) return in year 1 vs year 2 vs year 3 vs year 4. I heard an analyst mention that the best returns come in year 3. Can you confirm the returns by year. I appreciate the great service.
Read Answer Asked by Frank on June 28, 2023
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