Investment Q&A

Q: Hi there,

I've been reading up on the US vs International stock cycle as of late. It appears as the cycle of under and over performance tends to happen in cycles. Obviously no one can predict the future, but do you think International will outperform over the next few years considering where are are in the economic cycle, rates, valuations etc? Can I please have your thoughts?

Thanks!

Q: The market has been trading for 14 days this year - what has the market indicated to you? Clayton

Q: Hi 5iResearch
Is there a sector rotation happening now in the market?
If no, do you expect any sector rotation in the foreseeable future?
Unless the answers to both questions are no, can you please identify these sectors (favourable, unfavourable)?
Thank you,

Q: In many cases buying the top 3-5 stocks of an index gives a better end result than the whole index since you don't have to drag the less performing.
1-Do see the same apply to the S&P500?
2-In a 3% (normal?) fed rate what is the normal multiple for the S&P500?
3-What is the current forward PE for the S&P500?
4-How does this apply when the top 5 holdings are technology with higher multiples than the banks and oil companies?
Many questions but one goal, trying to put the dry powder in an optimal manner.

Thank you

Yves

Q: Hello 5i,

A general market question.

Seems a though the next “wall of worry”
to climb as inflation is receding is going to be the potential debt default of the US government. I think they will be extending the debt repayment for as long as possible into the summer/fall, but ultimately I believe a refusal by US congress to increase the debt ceiling to be very credible this time around.

Would appreciate your thoughts and how best to position a portfolio for the worst case scenario?

Q: May I have your thoughts on the USA’s debt ceiling? There is speculation in the press that the most conservative elements (called the “Freedom Caucus”) inside the Republican Party will refuse to raise the debt ceiling without drastic cuts to the country’s chronic budget deficit. In a worse case scenario an impasse will cause government bonds to default. The caucus is quite small but seems to have a large influence over the Republican Party due to its very slender majority in the House Of Representatives. I will need to take some money out of my RRIF this year not covered by the RRIF’s dividend income. Do you think I should be selling stock now or to put it another way will a government bond default is simply not realistic? After all it would take only about 10 Republicans to vote with the Democrats to raise the debt ceiling.

A bond rate spike is typically bad for gold prices but in this case might be positive for gold. Do you agree?

Any thoughts you have would be appreciated.
Jim

Q: I've notice preferred share markets gaining around 2% in a day on a couple of occasions. Obviously somebody's loading up..question...have you noted any other sector rotations that may be occurring or that you anticipate? Many thanks...

Q: Hi group I am out of credits...Hopefully you can give me some guidance on how to play China opening up from Covis restrictions. Commodities and oil seems to stand out if you agree what companies have the most potential upside. Also looks like big tech is another beneficiary if you agree what is your top picks in this sector as well. Thanks for your goodwill service it much appreciated

Q: Do you think the prospects of investing in Emerging markets funds is improving? Are they going to be better performing compared to developed markets? Does the rising interest rates impedes their progress?

Q: Bond market drives the stock market.

I keep hearing this message. Would you please provide a explanation of why this is the case ( if you agree) and how this works. And WHO are the drivers of the bond market.

Thanks as always.

Q: Hi 5i Team - I sometimes hear about the amount of money waiting on the sidelines for possible investments in the equities markets. Do you have an idea of what this might be in the U.S. or Canada or even globally. Also would you consider it a significant amount. Thanks.

Q: Hello, This is not a question about stocks but more towards interest rate and the effect on markets. How can the US un-employment rate still be around the 5% when we hear of mass layoffs everyday from major companies? It would seem that the 5% is skewed so as to give reason for the fed to keep raising rates which in turn would seem to affect the markets.

Q: Peter; When the tech sector “ rolled” over it was hard to decide,at the time, whether one should buy the dips, sell, or sit. I’m concerned the oil sector might do the same thing with yield only holding up the sector. How do you decide if a sector is rolling over or not ? Thanks
Rod

Q: I think it’s clear that within the next six months the US will teeter on the brink of technical insolvency given the more radical element of the GOP. This will likely result in a significant decline in the US dollar, what’s an easy way to invest in this, gold for example?

Q: Ruchir Sharma, Chairman of Rockefeller International and Founder & Chief Investment Officer at Breakout Capital suggests that the US$ may have peaked and that it will start to decline in 2023 due to nat'l debt. The narrative was suggesting that USA role as world leader is starting to wane. Conversely, if the C$ strengthens, Cdn exports will be negatively impacted. Does 5I have an opinion on the matter?

Carl

Q: Hello,
Many experts are predicting a downturn in the market for at least the first half of 2023 and possible even longer. With that in mind, and if the Feds and Bank of Canada pause in Q1,... the market will stabilize and GIC rates may pull back. In fact RBC GIC's short term rates are about the same as longer term. Therefore, is this a good time to start buying Bonds ETFs with the hope that as rates start coming down the stock price will start moving higher? Am I correct in this assumption? And, which ones would you suggest? short, mid, or long term.? As well, what are you thoughts on Prime Linked Cashable GIC's ( offered by RBC)? Finally, would you buy a 1 year GIC currently at 4.65% ( by RBC) ?
Thanks
CR

Q: Hi Team,
My thoughts are on what to do with a portfolio that was caught "tech heavy" before the recent fallout. My opinion is...that if the holdings were "winners" in the previous environment, and will survive until the next cycle up for the sector happens, then at this point it is best to just hold on to the positions, as opposed to try to sell for big losses and diversify at this point when the entire portfolio fell 50% in 2022. My hopes are to wait for a big recovery in my holdings at least somewhat...then after that diversify to more appropriate levels. Am I wrong in this thinking? Tough call I know...but what do the odds point to here? Thanks!

Q: Hello Peter,

When the market has been trending up and with positive returns for the year one puts further investment money in what has been working. However when the market has been trending down and with a negative return, it makes sense to put money in sectors and markets that have been battered?
In ball park terms the TSX returned a negative 8.5 % S&P negative 19 and Nasdaq negative 33.
What would you think of rebalancing a portfolio that started 2022 50% Canada and 50% USA (mostly Nasdaq) to now go 25% Canada and 75% US markets with a bias towards nasdaq, s&p in the ratio 4:1? Or somewhere in that territory?

Also what % would you consider prudent to allocate to speculative stocks (for a tech/growth oriented investor) now that high valuations are no longer what they used to be.

Looking forward to your thoughts on the subject.
Regards
Rajiv

Q: US stocks in my RRSP: I strongly believe that 2023 shall be another year with high volatility, for numerous reasons (world economy ,geostrategic factors,debts,China
slowdown,etc..).In this perspective,I increased the proportion of US covered call ETF using call options on 100% of portfolio in order to : 1) reduce volatility et 2) maintain significant dividends during this coming period.When the market will stabilise ,I will reduce the % of these ETF in order to increase the % of Cies stocks and of "conventional ETFs".Please comment this strategy ,plus your point of vue will be appreciated since I know that "no one can predict the future" ! regards,J-Y

Q: Larry Berman being interviewed by Bloomberg indicated that we are in for another year similar to 2002. He had numerous charts to support his opinion. They reference the massive amount of debt that the US has taken on to deal with COVID and the wars it supports financially (Ukraine). The interest which is higher than usual is going to make things even more difficult to pay back. Sounds pretty scary to me. Thank you again