Investment Q&A

Q: There has been a lot of talk about a housing correction in Canada. I am interested in your views of how this could impact the Canadian stock market and what would be the most vulnerable sectors and stocks? Also, would this tip us into a recession?
Thank you

Q: What will be the impact on WEF with the expiration of the softwood lumber agreement? Thanks
Derek

Q: Could I please have your opinion on what to expect from this ETF over next six months to two years?
Thanks again
Larry

Q: Hi I am taking a position in a S&P 500 ETF through a domestic product. Would you buy a currency hedged ETF or just buy the ETF with no hedge. I guess this is a question about our currency over the next couple years and you outlook on it. Thanks for all the great reading.

Q: Dear 5i

I came across this comment from Otterwood Capital Management today:

"The fundamental event which could initiate a dollar selloff would be an announcement from the International Monetary Fund to include the Chinese Yuan in the SDR basket (see my post here for more details). The last decision was made on November 15th, 2010 so we should expect similar timing for this year’s decision. If included, roughly $1 trillion of global reserves will move into Yuan, largely out of US dollars. The decision would be positive for Chinese risk assets and by default, negative for the US dollar.

The US dollar is at a crossroads and the ongoing consolidation is running out of time. One way or another it will break out of the range and an unanticipated US dollar selloff would lead to significant repositioning and volatility."

This is the second time I have heard about this in a week. I just wanted to get your opinion on this scenario and what, if anything, you would recommend doing (i.e. would this be a good time to sell some US stocks?).

Thanks for your great service.

Q: What effect would there be on bond funds such as XHY, XBB and CBO if the US Federal Reserve went to negative interest rates? I hold all in a registered account.

Q: The Trans-Pacific Partnership(TPP) will reduce or eliminate barriers on a range of canadian exports,inclyding machines,canola,beef & pork,minerals,forestry products & seafood.It will also allow more foreign dairy into canada & expose workers to cheaper foreign labour. Please advise if TPP will have any material impact on stocks,especially in 5I portfolios.If has,please provide some names that are adversely impacted & some names that are fovourablly affected.Appreciate your usual great advices & services.

Q: Are we seeing early warning signs of more downside to the stock markets given some of the recent bank results. National and CIBC in Canada, HSBC and Deutche Bank come to mind.
If we can legitimately connect the dots between these banking numbers and some of the softer US data numbers and the decision to hold off on interest rate increases might lead one to look for more safe havens if not head for the sidelines for a while.
I would appreciate your assessment of this environment.
Thanks.

Q: Bill Carrigan on Market Call maintained that there was a rotation from Health Care etc. to hard assets--energy in particular. Even though I can't see much of a future for energy or gold, the stocks still seem to be acting like there is a rotation to them while health care and IT are underperforming.
Do you have any observations?

Bryon in Elmira

Q: Hi 5i,

There are a couple of things I don't understand about this recent rally.

It seems to me that it is due to the US potentially slowing down, and hence delaying interest rate increases. If this is true, are we to expect this rally to end soon (since a slower US economy must eventually be bad for stocks) or does this rally have legs?

Also, if the rally is based on delaying interest rate increases why are companies like SunLife rallying. I thought these companies were going to benefit from rate increases so the current environment should be negative for them?

Any help you can give me to clear up my confusion would be appreciated.


Thanks,

Q: Given the trade deal that was signed today would you have any sector-stock selections that could benefit. What would you recommend for a protein stock. sap, hlf, Clearwater or mapleleaf.
Thank you as always.
Chris

Q: Hi, what would you consider appropriate weightings (%) to the following sectors in an all equity portfolio in today's market?

Communications
Consumer Discretionary
Consumer Staples
Energy
Financials
Health Care
Industrials
Materials
Technology
Utilities

Looking to create a more diversified portfolio and seem to struggle on an appropriate weight for each. Thanks!

Q: Hi Peter and team the markets seems to have more worse days than better are we going back to the 2008-2009 days slowly. How bad are things is it a specific underlying problem (China, Recession, US raising rates fear) seems that nothing is making the market turn around? Thanks Nick

Q: Apparently Carl Icahn is shorting the market. Do we need to worry about big bear market? What is your overall strategy? Thank you.

Q: Market is droping like crazy should we still hold?.

Q: Just a comment, really.

It's hard to avoid somebody talking about the stock market today if you have a radio or TV on. Now, if you also consider the huge volumes (which none of the talking heads mentioned - at least none that I heard) I suggest we are seeing the capitulation and the end of this rout is nigh. Maybe even tomorrow. That of course, doesn't mean we have smooth sailing from here. Only for now.

Q: Can you provide updated opinions on the US Dollar? Are we seeing a repeat of the early to mid 80's run into the USD? Seems to be crushing everything in it's path..

Q: Can you clarify what the effects are and what you expect they will be on a mostly Canadian portfolio given that the U.S. interest rate is expected to increase soon and that the Canadian rates have just been decreased. I was expecting Canadian dividend stocks to strengthen given a lower interest rate here, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Certainly utilities like IPL and ENB are weakening (but perhaps that's more to do with the perception of them as energy stocks). Other Canadian dividend paying companies also seem to be weaker, such as banks. Does the U.S. interest rate always have the strongest effect on Canadian stocks, no matter that the Can interest rate goes in the opposite direction ?

Q: Hello Peter & Co,
My RRIF portfolio in entirely denominated in Cdn$. In order to invest in US stocks, the wise thing would have been to convert a portion of the portfolio to US$ when both currencies were at par; but I did not.
To convert now would cost me some 30% in exchange rate; I would not mind that if our loonie would remain at current levels. But that would be an irresponsible assumption because, even though there could be some additional downside in the short term, our currency would eventually move up (say by 10-15%).
So, the return from the US investments would have to be reduced accordingly.
But I am generating for the past 6 years a 17% compound return per annum from my Canadian holdings (when 7% pa would have been sufficient to meet my "wants"). The math here does not seem compelling to me with a hurdle of 17+(10 to 15)%.
So, unless I'm missing something, is this all worth the hassle?
Thanks,
Antoine

Q: Hello, my question is about the "Macroeconomic report card". What is the definition of "TSX Comp.Yield"? On the macroeconomic report card of June 15th, you report a yield of 3.30%, is this the dividend yield only? I am asking because it seems to me a little bit high. (same question apply to the S&P500 yield). Thanks, Gervais