Investment Q&A

Q: Hello I know how you recommend against trying to "time a bottom" especially when investing longer term. We have about 20% cash presently. Most pundits are saying "hold on" indicating it may be prudent to wait before putting cash to work. However, do you see any issue with adding a bit to existing positions where the stock is down significantly for no fundamental reason. For example, Chemtrade seems very cheap right now. Thanks for your thoughts. Bill

Q: I'd like to get your response to the "Sell Everything!" headline in the Financial Post today, quoting an RBS report saying 2016 would e a 'cataclysmic year' for stock markets.

Q: Would you consider a rethink on the growth portfolio not only regards the constituent holdings but the whole portfolio as a percentage of the total investment? I ask this in light of the increasing probability of the following economic conditions:
1. The oil price remains depressed for the entire year with the western provinces in recession and the Canadian GDP also contracts for two quarters or more.
2. The steep decline in shale production and the rate increase in the US would have a significant negative impact on the Russell Index IWO which maybe in bear territory?
Assuming that any given individual’s investment in the growth portfolio is according to her risk profile, would you suggest adjustments to the overall portfolio weight (increase or decrease) in proportion to the balanced and income portfolios; and the individual growth stocks for 2016? If you would, then can you please try to indicate exposure to specific sectors/regions/stocks?
Regards.

Q: Just a comment: you like to repeat that we never had 10 year loss for any major market. Well, we are very close to this here in Canada: April 21, 2006 S&P/TSX Composite close was 12437, as I am writing this the index is 12241... While we don't have 10 year loss yet, we have 9 years and 9 months loss. Regardless whether we blame it on oil, Canadian bureaucracy and unions, or ignorant and corrupt politicians the fact remains that investing in stock market in Canada in the past 10 years was the worst mistake one could make...

Q: Hi Friends! My question is more general in nature. Most people including myself have a very general understanding of how financial markets and government monetary policy works. In an extreme situation where there is a breakdown of the financial system how can an investor maintain some sort of reservoir of value in the event most traditional investments had little value for a period of time? Sort of extreme I know but I think many average investors wonder about this scenario. Ian

Q: Hello.
Thanks for the quality reading about companies. This subscription has generated educational and financial benefits.

After review of many income and quality holdings held through 2015, I find myself questioning Portfolio Management strategies. While I attempt to have a long time horizon and focus on the company not the ticker, I have to question the practice of an Investor holding companies that rise nicely in price only to fall from high prices (pick any reit or quality income oriented investment).....essentially doing a round trip ..some into a negative position. (IPL, BEI, WSP, TCN, CGX will be there soon)

Often accompanying the Investor along this journey are comments like, good company, good to hold for income investors, fundamentals look good or the dividend should support the stock price.

Can you offer thoughts on the above general scenario and either how to overcome the sense of loss as stock prices tick lower for companies previously sporting gains or what alternative strategies/ Portfolio actions are out there (not trying to be a trader) to help reduce the downside action of a Retail Investor's portfolio?

Thanks for your efforts.
Dave

Q: Shanghai index down 7% so trading suspended. Hong Kong & the 3 major European indexs down some 3%.The US futures also down sharply.Oil down 4%.Please advise us what to do.Always appreciate your usual great services & views.

Q: Are we in a bear market? How should retail investors like myself position ourselves in the current environment? Thank you.

Q: Could you please comment on the Chinese markets and how recent events may affect North American markets.

Q: the recent data seems to suggest that the markets,reflecting the average stock,is in a bear market with growth slowing, and recent interest rates seem to be going lower to reflect that. If we are in a bear market, how does one make money, as opposed to preserve capital?

Q: I read most of the questions and answers to help me stay informed with the market. Haven't read whether this is a long term correction in the market. James Hodgison, Curvature Hedge Funds seems pretty accurate as in December he predicted a bear market beginning in January. He is right. Vector Vest eventually will come on and say that they had told everyone to get out of the market in January. They predict history. What do you see happening in the next quarter? Thanks so much. Dennis

Q: Hello Peter and Team,

Happy New Year. I know this is an extremely general question... What do you see as the best investing opportunity or having the biggest upside for 2016? Things to consider could be companies that were quiet/unfairly beat up in 2016, or some momentum/general trends you see emerging this year. Feel free to make this company specific or an overall sector.

Thanks,

Jordan

Q: Happy New Year Peter and all at 5i.
Our diversification outside of Canada is through the 5i portfolio Canadian companies with such diversification (ATD, BNS, BOS, CSU, SJ, TCN etc). We don't have any US or Global domiciled stocks. Is this enough looking at 2016 or is it prudent to add some US or Global focus ? Also, we've always been impressed with Dennis Mitchell who now has 4 US/Global funds at Sprott. Though new funds, based upon Mr Mitchell's track record at Sentry, would you recommend any of these ? An alternative ? What percentage of a 5i based portfolio ? Sincere thanks for all your guidance in 2014 and 2015. All the Best in 2016 ! Paul

Q: Here is an easy question (or not). Are we in a bull or a bear market? Obviously oil and the base and precious metals are in a bear, but if we take them out, is the rest of the market in a bull market?

Q: If we are in the bottom of the 7th inning of a secular bear market and the financials, utilities, telco and other high dividend payers are starting a price reversion from high p/e's brought about by the abundance of cheap money, what sectors would you go to while this plays out. I am 70 and may not have enough years to stay invested in the yield play sectors and then wait for the recovery.

Assuming this process is in place would you care to venture a guess as to how severe the correction may be.

Thank you Peter.

Q: Last question to 5iR for 2015…and it is about 2016. I would like your comments on the target weights for portfolio asset allocation. (Details include a portfolio made up of a 20% income segment, 10 % growth and the balance of 70% balanced……and the dollar denomination, 80% CD$ an 20% US$)

CS 10%
Retail 5%
CD 10%
F 10%
Real Estate 5%
E 5%
Pipelines and services 5%
Health Care 10% (CD$ and US$ 50/50 split)
IT 20% (CD$ and US$ 50/50 split)
Industrial 15%
Material/Mining 1%…the plug figure
Transport 2%
Utilities 2% other than pipelines.

……thanks for keeping on the investment rails in 2015

May all at 5iR party well to ring in 2016!…..Tom

Q: I am baffled at the discrepency between forecast and actual numbers of the US weekly oil inventories. This week a plus of 4.5MM vs a forecasted reduction of 1.8MM. Can you shed some light on what could create that much variance on a weekly reported number?

Carl

Q: I am wondering what your reaction is to the proposed 4 rate increases for 2016 and 4 more for 2017. My impression was that the rate increases would come much more slowly. Was this your expectation and what the effects would be on the US and Canadian economy and equity markets.
Many thanks
Mike

Q: Hello Peter and Team,

I bought this ETF a few months ago hoping to participate in Europeam equity rebound. So far not much has happened. Your thoughts on this ETF and please recommend any if you feel will participate in rising European stock prices. Thanks, Rossana.

Q: I WONDER IF YOU COULD PROVIDE ME WITH YOUR INSIGHT INTO WHERE YOU FEEL THE U.S. AND CANADA ARE IN THEIR INDIVIDUAL BUSINESS CYCLES.
THANKS,
RANDY