Investment Q&A

Q: Do you know of Martin Armstrong's cycle theories? If so, it'll be nice to know what you guys think of it and what you think of business cycles in general.

Q: Hello Peter,

What is your view on current market valuations versus risk? In general prices look pretty fully valued right now especially in the US. I'm holding some cash right now but hesitant to buy more at this point as risk/reward profile looks a little shaky.

Are you continuing to buy at these market levels?

Q: Peter,
This is the latest (Dec19) expected consensus earnings (in %) for 2015 S&P (all revised down from the last one by the way except financials)
Financials +17.6
Cons. discretionary +16.8
Materials +14.8
Tech +11.3
Health +10.8
Industrials +9.7
Cons staples +6.8
Energy -20.4

My question: I have not been able to find the same info for Canada ( a recurring problem for me) but could this US info be used as a proxy for Canada. (my take? not for all)
Thanks for that

Q: Can you please give us your thoughts on what is happening in Russia. How big a risk is it for north american markets ? Thank you

Q: Looking into 2015, which of the following do you project will perform the best - financials, materials, energy, consumer,utilities (and why)? and is there a specific sub sector that you project will be an outperformer? thank you.

Q: Hello Peter & Co,
Markets are in turmoil, for 2014 year to date TSX is up 3.4% (incl dividends). Even though my portfolio is up 11.4% over the same period (I hold most of your equity portfolio + other equities), I worry about the world economic outlook.
The strong US$ causes balance sheet problems in the emerging markets, the US yield curve is flattening (short term up, long term down), China is OK with a caveat, Europe is shaky, Russia is in trouble; but the US is fine (is it really), Canada and Australia are shaky.
In the context that I have described, 1) do you re-structure your portfolio?, 2) how? or 3) do you sail on?
Thanks,
Tony

Q: The prospect of rising interest rates has come up a several times recently in both questions and/or some of your answers; and I would appreciate your help in connecting the dots (as in cause and effect). With O&G prices having fallen so much; and comments being made that the entire economy might actually slow down because of the size of the industry in Canada, why would rising interest rates appear to be likely? .... unless there is a serious and legitimate concern about "Stagflation" raising its ugly head again, which scares the daylights out of me.

Thanks for your insights and guidance.

Q: Hi Peter and team, Early in the morning I sent you 2 questions: one about PKI which was answered in no time (thank you) and another one w/a link to this article, but had no reply:

http://www.thetradingreport.com/2014/12/10/guess-what-happened-the-last-time-commodity-prices-crashed-like-this/

I don’t want to sound pushy......just wondering if you got it? In case you didn’t get it, I was asking for your opinion of the article. It actually feels like 2008 (as a member said today in a question he asked). Should we be worried/prepared? How do you think precious metals will perform if such a scenario will occur?

I’ve chosen the option for other 5i members to view it, but I leave to you if you want to post it or just answer to my email.

Thank you again!

Q: GS has issued a "SELL CANADA" statement(recommendation?) that has been mentioned on BNN numerous times in the last several days. What does this mean? Is GS powerfull enough to add to the selling pressure on the TSX? Thank You Ron

Q: Good afternoon,

US discretionary spending is indicted to rise with oil dropping, wmt is hitting new highs in anticipation. I consider a moderate risk investment in light of "new money" theoretically ready to deploy. What are your thoughts, where will Canadians spend if discretionary spending increases, will they payoff debt ( bad for banks), would they spend on credit with increased sentiment on repay ability (good for banks, magna, cineplex).. where would you invest in light of the economic change?

Thanks,

Eric

Q: Hello, can you indicate which three sectors you feel will benefit the most from lower oil prices and why? I am thinking of placing my free capital in the ones you are recommending as I don't see oil prices rising anytime soon. Thank you.

» S&P/TSX Capped Composite Index
» S&P/TSX 60 Capped Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Discretionary Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Consumer Staples Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Diversified Metals & Mining Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Energy Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Financial Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Health Care Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Industrials Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Information Technology Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Real Estate Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Telecommunication Services Index
» S&P/TSX Capped Utilities Index
» S&P/TSX Capped REIT Index

Q: What caused stagflation in the 1970's? Do you think we are at risk of stagflation again?

Thanks,
Hans

Q: Ryan's report on SLF and MFC was very interesting and is a great explanation for why you prefer SLF. I got the impression that in the less likely event of equity markets moving more than 10% along with a 100BP move in interest rates, that MFC would do better than SLF. Is this correct (and why) and if so, can you estimate the probability of this scenario happening ? Also want to say that the addition of the name along with the stock symbol as the identifier for each question, is a helpful addition-thank you.

Q: Hello Peter,
What is your opinion today about the strength of the US economy? Do you still think the downturn will be over in a few weeks?
Thank you for your honesty, your integrity and your support.

Q: Advice please on weathering this first time correction or worse for a rookie DYI investor (not my day job.)

I appreciate your calming replies about the fundamentals of the economy and the companies you comment on.

I have made only a total of 6 or 7 buys this calendar year and 1 good buy GWO offsets a few poorly timed purchases HSE, TA, SGY AND WCP

IN TOTAL IF I SOLD IT ALL, I would break even today, bearing in mind this is all together only 5 to 10 % of portfolio, would you suggest

getting rid of it all and waiting 30 days (by the way if I sold for a loss today when is the 30 day limit for claiming a capital loss? )

OR waiting things out because my selections above are fundamentally sound and I have a long time horizon (> 10 yrs )

thank you for the support !

Q: I have read with interest how many of the comments during this downturn refer to selling positions now. It is very important for investors to realize and remember, that it is during these downturns that the "smart money" begins to buy, not sell; perhaps not today, but soon. A 10% correction will take the TSX to around 13150, the DOW to 15600 and the S&P to 1800 and that is when there will be bargains to be had. Don't sell during these times; re balance your equities and fixed income and get your cash back in...just a thought :)

Q: Carl Icahn shorts S & P 500. He has taken these measures to protect his stock portfolio. He says the correction is going to get worse. Do you think your 5i followers should hedge their portfolio and, if so, what products would we use? It is nice that I can get this info. from 5i. The people I know wouldn't be able to provide me with this information. Dennis

Q: long term investor catching my breath

anything other than market conditions to be concerned about here after a very big drop?

Thanks for all you do

Gord

Q: Are global growth concerns significant enough to derail this market. Should we sit tight or lighten up. Thanks.

Q: Please advise the % weightings of the various sectors in the TSE 300 & the S&P 500 and your current recommended % weighting in the various sectors of The TSE 300.
Thank you