Investment Q&A

Q: Hello

i would like to get your opinions on what investors should do given possibly an inevitable market correction.
many portfolios have gone up over 25% this year, which likely is not sustainable

should we move to bonds, if so where etc

Thank you in advance

Tim

Q: It looks like job losses in the US and Canada will increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts. The former suggest bad things going on in the economy, the latter tends to be good for stocks. Can you comment on how those factors might play out for the markets in the coming year?

Q: Dear Peter et al:

Everyone including yourselves talk about 7+ T USD on the sidelines when a question about market correction is asked. This money will step in and protect the markets from a crash. That seems to be the
thesis here.

But the huge cash reserves of big companies, (BRK for example) pension funds and various PE firms
(listed and unlisted) have ALWAYS
been a feature in the market, no?.Even during the bull or bear
market this Cash on the sidelines has been a constant, right?
So, the question is what is the range of cash on the sidelines? Can this cash on the sidelines act as a " metric" to signal Bull or Bear market?
(Just like your thesis on VIX. 40+ means buying time).

In simple terms what should be the "Normal" cash on the sidelines?!

Q: Hello 5i,

A follow up to Willie’s question about a potential USD devaluation on Sept 03.

We have 50% of our RRSP and TFSA in USD. Investments outside of the US and Canada are in CDN though those investments are minimal. In the past, the suggested path was to own US stocks with US funds over using CDN dollars to purchase US stocks or purchasing CDR’s. Moving forward, is it prudent to slightly reduce USD exposure by having a combination of CDR’s and US stocks for US investments (i.e. 10k in MSFT CDR’s + 10k of MSFT in USD)?

We had purchased USD about 8 years ago with a plan to vacation in the US upon retirement though we decided to vacation elsewhere now with CDN dollars. A currency cost would apply to sell 10% of USD though we do not have costs to buy or sell. This change would only be applied to the largest positions (NVDA, GOOG, META, MSFT, BRK.B, WMT.)

5i always seem to be ahead of the curve in their investment strategies and we are humble beneficiaries from your knowledge.

Thank you for your insight.
D&J

Q: Hello Team 5i & Everyone!

What do you think the likelihood of the tariffs being cancelled by the US administration is if they become too unpopular with their fan base and wealthy friends? (I’ve heard that historically tariffs take 4 - 18 months to fully work their way on to the consumer, so I’m open minded to the idea that the US consumer hasn’t felt the full impact of them yet.)

What would the market reaction maybe be if tariffs were cancelled?

Is the goal of lowering interest rates via the US administration undermining the independence of the US Fed (and stacking it with ‘yes people’) simply so lower interest rates will offset the tariffs affect on the US economy and lower the cost of the US refinancing its debt? Are there any more reasons you think apply here?

Appreciate your big brains,

Thanks!


(Hopefully this question isn’t a repeat, I got timed out when I first wrote it.)

Q: What are your thoughts/comments about market concentration in the Mag 7 stocks?

Seems to be around 32% of the total market cap of the S&P500 are in just those 7 stocks, which is around levels last seen in the .com bubble. While these companies have real revenues and profits, valuations are high (relative to historical averages), and it certainly seems somewhat concerning. I would appreciate your thoughts. Thanks.

Q: In a recent article by Ray Dalio he talks about investor risks given the massive deficits being run by the US government. He points to the possibility of future inflation and likely higher interest rates down the road unless corrective measures are taken. If this plays out what stocks should we include in our portfolios?

Q: Crystal ball question: What do you see as the likely direction for the market in September based on the different factors currently at play? Are there potential positives upcoming or is it more likely that things drift gradually lower based on tariff news and economic uncertainty? Any reasons for optimism or are things too stretched and due for a pause?

Q: Hi Peter,
One of the key goal of the current US monetary policies is trying to lower the value of US$. For the past decade, Canadian investors do not have to think of hedging. However, for the next decade, there is a good chance that exchange rate is going to move in the opposite direction. Over half of my portfolio is in the direct holding of US stocks, so it is unhedged. I do not want to sell my US holdings and buy CDRs, due to the tax consequence as well as not all US stocks have CDR equivalent. So for individual Canadian investor, how are we going to hedge the currency risk? Please explain the different approaches that we can employ to protect and hedge our portfolio. Thanks.

Q: Hi !

I refer to your monthly section of "best stocks ideas"

What are we to read in your selections: best value presently, ? best long term value ? best buying opportunity now ? best undervalued stocks ? best growing potential short term ? best long term growth ? best total income ?

It would be most helpful to know exactly what you mean by your best stock ideas.

Gratefully,

Jacques IDS

Q: It was announced today that Trump fired a Federal Reserve governor (Lisa Cook). Jerome Powell's term will end in May 2026. It seems Trump is really pushing for lower interest rates, and my question are::
1) If bond investors start to lose faith that the Fed will be able to control inflation, can the Fed still lower rates?
2) If inflation starts to take off again, is it better to be in stocks? If so, what sectors should people hide in?
3) Would you make any big changes to portfolio weightings or cash positions at this time?

Q: Hi,

Every month, I buy some VEQT as part of a dollar cost averaging strategy. It seems, however, that every month my purchase price is higher than the previous month. It keeps going up and up - and I'm getting leery.

I know you can't provide personal advice but, generally speaking, would you continue to proceed in this manner. Or are there other variations of dollar cost averaging in a rising market? Other strategies to consider?

Presumably, one could make a larger purchase up front. But when the funds come from my monthly salary, that's harder to do.

Thanks,
Robert

Q: Peter, if the FED rate is lowered significantly due to the desire of the administration but US inflation picks up due to tarrifs etc, which sectors will benefit the most ? Is it hard assets like materials (metals & other commodities) and gold ? What about oil, real estate, and financials ? Would the knock on effect in Canada be similar ? Thank you.

Q: Everyone, is this a good time to sit quiet and listen to the noise? Clayton

Q: Hello Peter and 5i Team,

We have to trim our exposure to AI. It has been a good ride and the time is right to take a little profit to reduce the risk in this sector. We added a little to our small cap and mid-cap ETF's to align with the 5i theory that markets may have some runway yet.

For the remaining funds could you let us know which of the two strategies that we should use?

1. We do not have any dividend stocks. Are there any high dividend (4%+) stocks in the US or Canada that have been hit recently, and thus, may be able to avoid depreciation of their current value if the markets turn south (5%-10%)? We would consider those stocks as safer dividend stocks to purchase now.

2. The other option is to continue with our standard default that purchases PSA and BIL as a default safe play when markets are high. Those funds are deployed back into sectors that get obliterated on a pullback. This strategy is 12%-15% of our portfolios.

Thank you
D&J

Q: What do you think about going into cash until the end of September? I understand that for most people, the advice is to stay invested and weather the course to avoid missing up days. I also appreciate that you do not advocate market timing. However, my thinking is as follows:

a) historically September is a poor month for the markets - 55-60% of the time the market is down in September;

b) since we've had an excellent year, maybe the odds of a draw down are higher this year. It also appears that the USA may not provide a rate cut due to inflationary pressures which would be a big disappointment;

c) selling now protects gains from a pullback. While this does incur a tax liability, I would rather have a big gain and pay tax than suffer a draw down (and miss the change to buy back lower);

d) if one is in cash, any pull back present golden buying opportunities;

What are your thoughts?

Jason

Q: In terms of positioning, the easiest answer is to just rebalance and trim some areas that have done well over the last few months and add to more defensive areas like fixed income or maybe more value oriented areas.

This is what 5i responded to an earlier question. In your view, what would those « more value oriented «  areas be?
Thanks as always

Q: Question for Peter only.

After going through multiple recessions, depressions and big drops in the market do you or your cohorts have a reasonable guess when the next one may occur and what would cause it?

The day, month & year it might happen?

How big a drop percentage wise?

How long will it last?

Would Ai be able to come up with an answer to this?

Thank you.

Q: Is it possible that, since technologies ( and even bitcoins) are so widely popular with the hope for big future gains ,this trend would direct less money towards more traditional sectors as utilities and energy ,then generating interesting opportunities ?

Q: I have been reading about "Stablecoins" in recent articles re Crypto. Do you see Stablecoins replacing cash as official currencies around the world? How much , in your estimation, do you see the Genius Act, the bipartisan bill recently passed in congress, will it effect the financial world as we know it?