Investment Q&A

Q: Can I get your thoughts on PM please.
A second thought/question: If US interest rates are expected to raise this year or early next, will that not pull down the CDN $ even more, and if that is the case, would it not be a good time to move more $ into US Stocks - even with the CDN $ were it is now.

Thank you as always.
Craig

Q: Greetings, I hope you enjoyed your long weekend. I am in the enviable (LOL!) position of facing a proposed reverse split or consolidation in one of my holdings. Is it safe to assume that outstanding employee options and warrants will be similarly reduced in number? i.e. 4 to 1 The Management circular does not clearly cover this topic.
Thank you!

Q: Hi Peter, What is the best way to give exposure of stock market to my kids (9 & 13) so that by the time they pass out from university they can trade on their own or make it as a career.Appreciate your guidance.

Q: In his review of the markets this week Jeff Miller suggests that the rate rise is a spike and not the beginning of an inexorable upward move. I would appreciate your thoughts on the recent interest rate rise.( I copied his comments below)



My own investing is firmly linked to economic fundamentals. The market disparities cited this week mostly reflect trader or pundit lore. Here are the key points:
•The interest rate spike has nothing to do with the Fed and little to do with liquidity. (See Ben Carlson).
•Interest rate levels have only minor implications for stocks – at least until they move much higher. Stocks do very well in the first portion of interest rate increases, especially when stronger economic growth is reflected.

So why the bond mystery. I have offered this hypothesis in the past. It still deserves a more complete explanation, but I will share the outline.

Many players have a “carry trade” where US Treasuries are the investment, not the “funding currency” as has often been the case in the past. Some funds have put it on explicitly with leverage, maybe 15-1. Some have it without leverage. Some merely choose an “unusual” asset allocation. Some have a currency hedge, but others are “going commando.” This explains a lot.

Whenever the dollar drops, some of these players are stopped out or get a margin call. Here is some evidence from 361 Capital:

06_macro_small

Whenever US rates rise more than the funding currency, we see a similar effect. Traders are stopped out or get a margin call.

None of it really has anything to do with the strength of the US economy or the prospects for stocks, but it provides plenty of grist for the media mill

Q: I would like to suggest to Warren that he might consider Keystone, or as they are some times called Keystocks.com.They are a bit on the pricey side, but with one pick you can more than make your money back. I,ve been a happy happy member for 6 years and use them as my primary source for stock picks with 5i and BNN as my confirmation info. Profitable investing!

Q: suggestion regarding some members repeating recently asked questions - I wonder if placing the "Ask a Question -Search by Symbol, etc." at the top right side instead of at the bottom right would be a way to encourage questioners to avoid repeating recently asked enquiries - just a suggestion as I also see this point.

Q: With regard to Warren's question about other investing newsletters, I have found Eddie Elfenbein's Crossing Wall Street to be a useful source. He maintains a "buy list" of 20 US stocks that he revises once a year (and only 4 or 5 changes annually). A weekly email provides updates on the stocks and useful macroeconomic perspective and helps cut through the hysteria and noise of the market (and much of the TV commentary). There are more frequent blog updates too if you are interested. Most years, his 20 stock list beats the S&P. Over the last 9 years, it has returned a compounded 151% versus 99% for the S&P. Note that this includes the market collapse in 2008. Finally, he is not selling anything and it is free.

Q: As a member for approximately 1 year now I want to compliment your group for having what I think must be a strong stomach towards answering the same questions over and over. Often the same or very similar questions are asked by different people and often within a day or few days of each other.

Your response are consistent which is great and should provide conviction to the members.

This reinforces to me that most people do not read and/or understand what they read. Or they are so myopically focused on themselves to not see the trees or the forest presented in front of their very own eyes.

Some members appear to rarely read the earlier posts and thereby repeat a previous question.

It appears many, if not most, retail investors, which I am one, listen to the news way too much and trade too much (which I try to not do).

Have a great day.

Stan
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I agree with Stan’s previous comments. Since questions “build up” over a nightly (and weekend period) basis why wouldn’t 5i save their bullets in addressing the repetitive questions in one swoop on favorite companies via the question/answer format, or better yet, give updates in batches by way of email to subscribers? Isn’t long term investing the mantra that 5i preaches? Pretty sure the 5i team have better things to do to improve our membership than repetitive answering day in day out. Seems like a lot of repeat answering is displaced by 5i (even copy/paste in some cases) when it could be dealt with in a more efficient fashion. Good site here at 5i with Mr. Hodson at the helm but there are definitely ways to improvise....regards.

Q: I use 5i as a double check on my thinking quite often. Am looking for another good investment type letter - focusing on North American equities, a targeted approach and longer term holds. If you could maybe give me three of four suggestions that come to mind I would do some leg work to see if they match up with me. And this letter like a good stock holding, is a keeper.

Q: As a member for approximately 1 year now I want to compliment your group for having what I think must be a strong stomach towards answering the same questions over and over. Often the same or very similar questions are asked by different people and often within a day or few days of each other.

Your response are consistent which is great and should provide conviction to the members.

This reinforces to me that most people do not read and/or understand what they read. Or they are so myopically focused on themselves to not see the trees or the forest presented in front of their very own eyes.

Some members appear to rarely read the earlier posts and thereby repeat a previous question.

It appears many, if not most, retail investors, which I am one, listen to the news way too much and trade too much (which I try to not do).

Have a great day.

Stan

Stan

Q: Hi Peter,

Just wanted to say it is sure nice to read your insights on the market(Your article in the FP...Five reasons to ignore stock market doomsayers).

It seems that nearly everyday lately the Globe and Mail and the Financial Post have a story from some so called expert calling the end of the market.
"The experts seem to crawl out of the woodwork at this time of year every year".

Thanks, Charlie

Q: Hi team:

this stock has dropped below it's 50 days and 200 days MA
is there any fundamental reason for it ?
hold or sell ?
thanks

Q: Hi 5i
Thx for your help and bang for my buck. There is no comparison to other investment advice I have encountered. My question is with regards to an investment site called american bulls ( japanese candlesticks ).They also have a Canadian version. It works well for trading stocks especially commodity stocks such as SGY and FM and TCK.B to name a few. I am mostly buy and hold but have traded in a TFSA and I find the signals to be fairly accurate especially when things happen quickly as in the oil and material sectors.

Q: I am a 60 year old retired conservative investor with a reasonable pension plus CPP. We have a well balanced portfolio that is roughly 67% equities and 33% fixed income. The fixed income includes a 7.5% Insured Annuity (yielding 5.1% pre-tax GIC-equivalent), 12.5% Fisgard Capital (1st mortgages yielding 5%), 2.5% Fisgard (2nd mortgages yielding 7.5%), and 10% cash (yielding 1%).

I am strongly considering directing some of the cash towards doubling up the Insured Annuity (this one yielding a pre-tax GIC-equivalent 5.2%). However, this is a "forever" decision. The annuity is not indexed, but compares favorably with long term bond mutual funds over 15-20 years. This would max-out my annuity allocation at 15%. What are your thoughts on this strategy?

The 2nd option being considered is Capital Direct (1st and 2nd mortgages), yielding 7-8%. My concern here is that I also have a 5% weighting in Sentry REIT (yielding 8%). Would that be too much concentration in the "mortgage" sector (Fisgard-15%, Sentry-5%, plus potential Capital Direct 7%)?

Do you have any other options for me to consider in the fixed income sector?

Thanks for your help.
Steve

Q: Re David’s question on the RSI. It and many other options are available on TMX money charts as a bottom indicator. You can choose various settings and save settings so you don’t have to enter it each time you are checking a stock.
TD Waterhouse also has many excellent options on their web site. I get an amazing amount of info from their program. You do have to have an account there to get all the perks though. To get an idea of the info that is available check out the Webbroker Tour site. Click on the Direct Investing Tour. The Research section will give you an idea of the wealth of info available.
They also have many free investment seminars, anyone can attend. Check to see if there is one in your area.

Q: Hi Team,

On May 8 Mehran asked about HHF. Are there any other hedge funds out there (Canadian or US) that you like and how much of a total portfolio for a conservative investor would you suggest holding in this type of security?

Many thanks.

Michael

Q: How do I locate the RSI for individual stocks ie: AEM ? Are they readily available ?

Q: I'm wondering if you could share your opinion on the reported rumblings in the bond markets and the speculation that equity market trouble is sure to follow. The reference is to the U.S. Markets as far as I can tell. Do you think there's a clear and present danger to Canadian equities?
Thanks very much.

Q: This is in response to Dennis, and his wife's $1M. I'm sorry, I don't know if you have instituted full portfolio services but I know it was considered in the past. If he and his wife are satified with the current service, upgrading would seem to be a cost-effective way to ad another opinion they seem to value.

Q: I have noticed that these stocks in particular have rising at a moderate but regular and almost even pace over the past several weeks. I assume that it is due in part to rising oil prices, as all of them are impacted by business in those areas, but I also suspect that the market is starting to see that they have business outside oil as well.

My question is, as a momentum influenced investor, how do you decide when "momentum" has set? Is is based on a percentage increase greater than the index, is it based on increases over historical averages or peer group technical charts or is it something as basic as a gut feel?

Appreciate the education you provide us all.

Paul F.