Investment Q&A

Q: In one of today's questions, you note "The inverted yield curve has worried some, as it does tend to predict recessions." This statement has an air of certainty that seems to be at odds with the table of data that you published the day before showing that recessions on average came 20 months after the yield curve inversion. What value is there in a prediction that takes on average 20 months to materialize. I would bet a correlation between not having a recession for ten years and having one in the next 2 to 3 years is even better and just as useless. Do you really want to propagate this myth?

Q: Timely article.
https://ritholtz.com/2018/12/how-to-use-behavioral-finance-in-asset-management-part-iii/

Q: david rosenberg just publishes an article in the globe ignore the yield curve at your own peril, the crew at 5i seems to me far more optimistic than this article indicates, furthermore the market action seems to indicate rosenberg is right on,so my question is who is right andshouldn,t we all be raising much more cash including 5i portfolios. dave

Q: I would like to add a comment in response to the question on Manulife's Income for Life offer from Dave. I am a financial advisor who recently dealt with this issue with an inherited client who had both a registered and non-registered Income for Life product. Some considerations to keep in mind is that the "top up" offer for non-registered plans is fully taxable. In my client's case, we determined that the non-registered offer didn't make sense but that the one for the registered plan did, as there was no taxation and it does not affect the client's RRSP contribution room. In my experience, when an insurance company wants to get out of a product, take a hard look at it because it usually means it is favouring the client too much (but not always, of course). Income for Life is meant to provide not only income for life but guranteed growth in the base amount as well. In Dave's case, the low growth in his capital to date is because of the investments he chose to be in - there is a wide range of investment choices so if the time frame is long enough, he may be able to grow that value. These products are not for everyone but the offer should be examined carefully with the taxation issue in mind. Hope this helps.

Paul F.

Q: Hello, I would like to start a Share Purchase Plan with one of the main banks in Canada. I am not an employee, and would like to do this in an RRSP/TFSA/RESP. I contacted Computershare to do this and they told me it cannot be in done in a registered account. Does anyone know if this can be done any other way or with another company?


Thanks

Q: Given the current volatility in the market there are a lot of analysts heads making bold predictions. Recently I heard one analyst say that "historically double peaks in a period of heightened volatility signals the end of a bull market". You've taught me there is always an opposing view-so is this statement simply that or is there some credence to it. Thanks for all you do.

Glen

Q: Hello Peter,
There have been many short sellers in the last few years in health care and now in Cannabis stocks. At this point, time will tell on Aphria, but for others like Valeant etc the short sellers were correct. I find it interesting that the brokerage firms, and analyst that covered these companies gave high marks and all of a sudden with a short report, they either revised their price targets or put out a release that the stock is under review rather than defend their own analysis. I am starting to question the analysis that is done by Canadian firms and their ratings. How is it that the short sellers are able to find things that the analysts covering these companies have not managed to even come across? Can you please comment as this is getting ridiculous when analysts and BNN Guests talk highly of companies and than we find out the shortfalls in these companies. Where is the accountability on these analysts and brokerage firms that put out good reports? Thanks very much

Q: With the 10/2 year treasuries spread now at 0.11 for December 4, 2018. Would it be prudent eye up good quality stocks, in preparation of a recession coming?
And is this something you are watching?

Q: We recently received a letter from Manulife with an offer to buy out our Annuity contract with Income Plus. Rob Carrick had an article on the offer in the Sept. 22 issue of the Globe and Mail. I would like to ask your opinion. My original investment was 175,000, purchased in May 2008. Recent market value was about 217,000, for a some what dismal return of less than 2 percent. These types of fixed annuities have some guarantees, but are complex and very hard to understand. The buyout offer is 37,000 and Manulife would add that to our present market value and roll over our contract into a newer segregated annuity product with lesser benefits. It looks like we have 3 options: 1)leave our contract as is with Income Plus 2) accept the bonus and move our market value into their new and watered down annuity version 3) Take the bonus and cash out of Income Plus at market value.
In recent weeks, I have done an internet search on this type of annuity and now see some limitations that were not fully understood when we originally purchased: the very high fees, now about 4%; a lack of inflation protection; a declining insurance coverage as well as a declining principle, which will both go to zero if I live to a ripe old age. The guaranteed income for life, which is 13,400.00 per year for me, no longer looks so appealing, as I wish to leave something in my estate for the family.
The intent of the original purchase was to act as a pension as I am self employed ( rancher) and have not paid much into CPP.
Do you think that a basket of conservative blue chip dividend stocks and reits, might be a better choice, if we take the option to cash out and reinvest? We are not fans of USA companies, but realize that many of them are international in scope.
Thanks, Dave Bober

Q: Just read David's question about the yield inversion. Over the years I have found these two sites to be very useful when considering the question of impending recession. Both are data driven. Worth a look.
http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/
https://www.dashofinsight.com/
Mike

Q: Hi team,
I saw an interesting question last week on the metrics for evaluating stocks in different sectors. You did not mention the tech sector. I am curious on those metrics where there are many companies, trends, growth prospects, competitors, among others. Many companies show no earnings at all as they are investing for earnings down the road. So how do you compare these companies?

With the market unrest the past couple of months, I have looked more closely at your Companies section where there is a wealth of information. Take 3 cloud stocks that regularly show up on your favourites list: BOX, RPD and TEAM. None have earnings today. There are non-earnings metrics shown, such as price to sales and price to cash flow. On a price to sales basis, BOX is 4.5, RPD is 6.3 and TEAM is 22.3. Box is the winner with RPD a reasonably close 2nd. On a price to cash flow basis, BOX is 32, RPD is 620 and TEAM is 60. BOX again is the winner but RPD is a poor 3rd. I know numbers don’t tell the whole story, but I am not sure how to make any reasonable evaluations based on the metrics.

Thanks for the insight.
Dave

Q: Hi 5i,

I read on Bloomberg that the 3 and 5 year bond yields have inverted in the states. I know generally it's a good indicator of a recession. How worrying is this sign to you? Would it lead you to making any investment changes?

Thanks!
Dave

Q: I’m confused why short seller analysts are allowed to manipulate stock prices for their own benefit. What’s the difference between an influential short seller shorting a stock and than manipulating the price with a bad report and a ceo buying or selling stock before an earnings report?

Q: Hi 5i!
This more of a financial planning question than an investing question.
I recently read the book "Retirement Income For Life". It talks about delaying taking CPP until 70 to maximize the amount received. This is achieved by drawing down RSPs from retirement to 70 and taking 1/3 of your retirement funds and buying an annuity. The annuity pays income for life and the larger CPP payment will last for life also. The goal is to not outlive your money in retirement. I'd love to hear your thoughts on this strategy.
Thank you for your insight!
Dave

Q: Clayton was asking about unwinding the Fed balance sheet you replied that they need to sell assets and referenced bonds. What are the assets. How and why does selling them effect the stock market.
Thank you for the excellent service you provide.
Peter

Q: ANYWHERE IN YOUR WEB PAGE ONE CAN FIND WHERE THE STOCKS BELONG TO THE CATEGORY ,e.g. BRK.B,,BAM,A,GOOS ,,PBH,SIS and UTX
Thank you

Q: Hi, I am looking to buy some beaten down tax loss selling candidates. Which weeks would you consider to have the greatest tax loss selling and when is the last date in 2018 to sell for tax loss purposes? Thanks.

Q: Hi Peter/Ryan, if you have a lot of shares and gains in a stock and if you are expecting the stock to split. Is it better to sell before the split or after or does it make a difference. Whats the best way to handle this scenario. Thanks, Nick

Q: The US Fed has a very big balance sheet problem that needs to unwind - someday. I do not understand what that means to the stock market.
Please help me.
Clayton

Q: TD online broker does not allow me to buy some securities electronically. I can place the order over the phone and get the online price. I can however sell my existing positions electronically. Example of securities concerned are Versa Bank, GMP Capital, and about a dozen others. I called broker and was told this restriction was placed on the shares by the company. Never heard of such a thing, have you? I can trade these securities through my other on line broker ie. RBC
Any idea what is going on?