Investment Q&A

Q: Hello team,

First thing on Monday 26 Oct, I am moving to buy 500 shares of VRX. This will account for roughly 10% of my portfolio. I am even tempted to buy 1000 shares depending on your honest answer to the following question:

Is this a one time opportunity to invest in a good company suffering from unfair publicity or is this a moment of greed which has blinded many to see a broken story?

I have seen the interview with Jason on BNN and I am sorry for not buying VRX when it reached 116$....if Jason is right this company is worth north of $400/share. If Jason is honest and I know you respect him a lot, then why should I (or everybody else) hesitate and lose this golden opportunity? Or is he telling us all of this because he is massively invested in VRX and he is looking out for himself first.

I know you don't like target prices but is it even a possibility for this stock to see the light of $250/share ever again.

I know you will refuse my weighting in the company but I am more interested in your genuine and personal trust in the company's management and what the company is doing (borrowing to grow ROE at all costs) as well as your desire to invest in this company after all is said and done...., Today?

Love to hear back from you. I know your long-term investment logic and wisdom are the only thing that could stop me from making a deadly mistake. So thank you in advance.

Q: Dennis Mitchell gave a more grounded interview on BNN regarding the Valeant - Citron debacle, in my view. In short (oops!) he suggests it's the investor's responsibility to fully understand the business they have bought into regardless of what any research piece, pro or con, says. Further, Buffett would suggest a 'margin of safety' shield any purchase you are contemplating and that volatility can be your friend if you understand the underlying business. Read lots (not just 5i) and take the time to ponder before your purchase but in the end you are responsible for your investments, not the media, not the research firm, not any politicians.
Post at your discretion.
Tim

Q: I thought your readers may be interested to see Jason Donville's response to the short sellers of Valeant:

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=733570

Some harsh words against the unregulated short market.

Q: GUD is apparently well positioned. They have money and they have the skill set. Waiting for it to move is seemingly like waiting for Godot. When do you think they might pull the trigger with the money they have and make and investment? See you at the show.

Q: Could you explain, in general terms, how companies like CXR (and I suppose VRX) actually thrive? CXR buys an existing company, but how do they become so successful? Do they somehow unlock synergies to cut costs or increase sales, or is it just price increases? Or is it that they somehow are able to purchase these companies at a great price, and if so, why would the existing owner sell at such a low price? CRX has levered itself to buy their most recent company, but why is this such a great deal? Thanks again for your insight!

Q: Hi guys. I own XLV.us, IWO.us, CXR, SIS, SIA, and PLI all varied weights and losses or slight gains in different accounts for a total weight dropping to 7% and dropping more. My question is do you see any of these as a Sell for the time being (perhaps a year or so)..to be bought back when the sector starts to look better. and freeing up cash for better places to hide. Perhaps GUD??? Thanks for your tireless support! We cant do it without you.

Q: Hi guys, again.

Feel free to take your time on this one and dont post publicly if you feel it adds zero value to the discussion.

I was reviewing Citron's twitter account and it looks like they only took notice of Valeant after Hilary Clinton's tweet, promising drug pricing reform. Citron Research's first tweet on Valeant, that I can find, was on September 28.

Do you think its possible, Citron, noticing Valeant's reaction to Hilary Clinton's tweet, decided to only then initiate their short attack on VRX by simply packaging the questions that have always surrounded Valeant in a nice neat report?

Imagining a world where Hilary Clinton never sent that tweet, would Citron have thought of to initiate their short on VRX? Would they have the courage of their conviction to place a $50 price target on VRX?

If you think Citron's report on Valeant took months to research and create, then obviously, the above timeline doesn't work out as Hilary first commented on drug pricing reform in late September.

So which do you think it is? (1) Citron was working on their report previously and independently of Hilary's comments or (2) Citron noticed the weakness in Valeant's share price, after Hilary's tweet, and smelling blood in the water, were opportunistic in deciding to create their short report.

Thanks again for your insight.

John

Q: The Valeant short-seller (Andrew Left) was on BNN today:

http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=732841

I have to say (in my opinion) that the above video does not paint him in a good light. It seems this whole story is more about sensational headlines than material evidence.

Q: Peter and Co.
I have 3% in Canadian healthcare stocks, CRH and PHM. Would you buy CXR today? Is it catching a falling knife or has it started it's rebound (up 18% yesterday.)
To me it looks like it has a ton of upside, but I don't think I could handle another PHM haha! cheers

Q: What is your view on ZUH? Is it and the sector breaking down or just a setback? Would you add to the position.

Q: It may be that some of the money leaving Valeant is going into more established names like Gilead. Its up over 6% today.

Q: Valeant Pharmaceuticals and Concordia in the last few days have been absolutely punished. What has been the rational as they are currently at ridiculously low PE's and seem to have a strong balance sheet and pipeline. Is this a good buying opportunity?

Q: In your estimation will the Healthcare sector be effected by what is currently happening to Valeant, Concordia, PHM etc. It's the old cockroach theory. An ETF such as ZUH or comparable products might not be immune. Would it be wise to avoid this sector until the dust settles? Would it be wise to get out entirely for the time being?

Thanks

Q: Hello Peter & 5i team,
I'm quite frustrated at the way the market reacts to a Citron report whose motivation is quite questionable; is it not possible that their report is so designed as to support their objective of shorting the stock?
Supposing their report is misleading, how is it possible that they can get away with it with impunity?
Now that the QSC starts investigating Valeant, who is investigating Citron?
Regards,
Antoine

Q: Team:

What does Valeant do?
Research. Little or none.
Piles on massive amounts of debt to buy companies. Raises prices.
May or not be stuffing the channel to record higher sales.
Accounting is probably aggressive.
Been around for 49 years seen this story before.
The debt or the deception will get them in the end.
Reading your answers you do not seem to have the same level of concern.
One of the earlier questions got this right.
PANIC.

Q: Good day, I am not risk adverse and sometimes that can get me in trouble. This stock looks like it is overblown to the downside. I know you would never recommend it but if my Healthcare allocation is ~5%. Would now be a good time to load up, maybe beyond a full position in this stock, or is that too dangerous with it falling like it is? I am thinking just above 5% of my portfolio?

Q: Regarding Maida's post on CINVEN buying 7.2M shares today. Is that news accurate. I've been trying to find any news on internet (incl. their webpage) to no avail. Someone at stockhouse.com says news came from Reuters (couldn't find anything). Have you guys verified this? If so, maybe you can provide the link.
Thank you!

Q: I am not a holder of Valeant Pharma, but I do have a small position in Concordia. While one could argue that Valeant had appreciated quite spectacularly after its failed bid for Allergan and was perhaps due for a pullback that recent market behavior seems irrational! It seems that retail investors don't really have a chance in today's markets with HFT and powerful short sellers. Many retail investors will get scared out of these stocks and others when huge declines occur even if they bounce back in 3 weeks or 3 months as evidenced by what happened on that Monday in August. Is there something the market watchers can do to restore some semblance of fair play in the stocks markets?

Q: Hi,

Why is it that when these stocks drop, CXR, the one not being targeted by subpoena, seems to drop twice as much as VRX? For example, last Monday CXR dropped 20 % whereas VRX dropped ten?
Today, when news came out of allegations of VRX's, CXR dropped just as badly? From its peak, VRX, has dropped about 56%, whereas CXR has dropped 82%!! I can see why people are selling VRX but why is CXR being punished worse?

Q: Hi
At 11:59 today there was an announcement from cinven

Cinven announces acquisition of 7,233,338 common shares of Concordia Healthcare Corp.
21 Oct 2015 11:59 ET Please comment. Thankyou