Investment Q&A

Q: Does one of the 5 major Canadian banks have no US bank holding exposure and if not which has the least amount? Thank you.

Q: Hello 5i. I just watched a panel of former U.S. Fed economist, former Regional Bank CIO and Dick Bove, long time bank Analyst discussing US Regional banks on BNN. Their majority opinion is the Fed has lost all credibility with the markets, Bove has a list of 30 US regional banks he thinks are in peril, He thinks the only solution is a very deep recession. After that he sees Canadian banks having a "field day " buying US regional banks at discounts prices.

This is a very brief recap of the discussion and I am not planning to get out of the market, but this growing opinion that the Fed has lost control may cause some to greatly reduce their equity holdings.

I would appreciate your thoughts on this.

Thanks, Mike

Q: hi folks...opinion on Q results for Sofi....the good & bad...and if didn't have a position...would U rate it a Buy or Avoid...thanks as always, jb

Q: Hello 5i
Could please tell me the pros and cons of starting a position in PNC Financial today?
Obviously the sector is in a bit of turmoil currently but is this an opportunity also?
Thank you
Dave

Q: Hi do you like this as a contrarian play? The yield looks strong with good 2-3 year appreciation is share price. Is this strong opportunity to buy at a discount. Jamie Dimon claims the worst of the banking scare is behind us now. Would you agree?

Q: First Horizon is down significantly after TD called off the deal. I’m just looking for your opinion on this company as an investment now? It looks like a great buy now with limited if downside. They are profitable and have a history of increasing dividends. Thanks.

Q: Do you think that this stock is a solid hold? Does it have good possibilities? Thx James

Q: One source describes RBC and TD banks as having wide-moats; BNS and CM banks it describes as having narrow-moats.

Do you agree?

Is this something that someone who has a concentrated portfolio should especially heed?

All the best!

R

By the way, I really appreciate all 5i/Cdn $ Svr does. Thank you!

Q: In regards to TD - now that they have cancelled the First Horizon deal they will have an "excess capital" position. Is one possible use of that "excess" be to declare a special dividend. Is that even allowed by regulators - has a CDN bank ever declared a special dividend? What do you think they will do.
Thanks
Reg

Q: Trisura just annonced preliminary results for Q1. Could you comment please.

Thanks

Q: Would you endorse a switch from GSY to CM if one was looking for a more stable name with still good upside from current stock prices and a solid dividend yields

Q: Hi!
I just read piece about CIX in the Globe here: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-ci-financial-us-expansion-leave-canada/ .

It is a far from flattering description of CIX (says the CEO is overpaid, and the CEO overpaid for the US businesses, too much debt).

I have a couple of questions.

1) The article said that the CI will delist from the NYSE and be listed only on the TSE,
This seems like a bad development. What do you think?
2) Also, there is the talk about the IPO. Well, what does that exactly mean for share holders (ideally)? Would the IPO lead to a pop in CI's share price?
3) Would it end up being a dilutive transaction?

Maybe I am being pessimistic, but the outlook for CI seems...unprofitable...and I fear the worst (permanent loss of capital).

Q: What do you see in the medium term for TD? With a dividend approaching 5%, does it not invite investors to jump in? What am I not seeing here? If we get into, or deeper into, an unpleasant recession can you see TD share prices dropping significantly from current levels?

You have regularly note that the big banks have not historically reduced their dividends. If TD share prices do drop, the yields will be alarmingly high. It's been decades since I studied economics and I don't seem to be any smarter. Perhaps you can help.

thanks

al

Q: Would you buy NVEI here or is it too expensive?

Q: How much of TD's $1.2T of deposits is in their US banking operations? And does this amount include their ownership in Schwab and other banks they have a stake in?
Is this something to be concerned about, given the potential for a further run on the banks. Thank you.

Q: In the wake of turbulence there is often opportunity - is that the case for "brave" and NOT risk averse investors in the regional banks of the US? If so, what key metrics would you use and do you see some larger and safer opportunities within the regional bank space - maybe this could be an article you could write for clients?

Regards
John

Q: Hi Peter and company,

With Pacwest being the latest troubled regional bank, are there any high quality regionals being sold down in sympathy? Feel free to suggest any others not included above.

Thanks for the great service,
Angelo

Q: I noticed that Brookfield DTLA, a BAM subsidiary, has defaulted on a series of office building morgages with their preferred dropping from $30 to $0.50. Also I have read frequently that Brookfield's financial structure is highly integrated and complex.
Do you see see any risk here or should I maintain my position. Thanks

Q: Hi Peter,

Paul Holden of CIBC Capital Markets raised his recommendation of Royal Bank of Canada and National Bank of Canada to outperform. He cited their capital levels, earnings diversification, and lower relative credit risk as the basis for his favourable recommendations.

However, he acknowledged there are risks to that assumption and that central banks could overshoot by tightening too aggressively and thus tip economies into recession; or they could move too cautiously and allow stagflation to take hold.

Holden’s models show the Big Six banks, could see their Fiscal 2023 earnings per share tumble 33 and 31 percent, respectively, in the recession and stagflation scenarios.

“Canadian bank stocks are not being priced for the same economic risks that have already been incorporated into the bond market and U.S. bank stocks. We are not calling for a 2023 recession as our base case, but we cannot simply dismiss that possibility as inconsequential. Our analysis shows there could be (roughly) 30 percent downside should a recession scenario transpire,” he wrote.

Do you agree with Paul Holden’s recommendation concerning the Royal Bank and National Bank as the best of the Big Six banks to own today? Please explain your rationale.

Second, in the event of a recession or stagflation scenario in Canada, do you agree with Paul Holden’s prediction that the Big Six bank stocks will tank by about 30%? Please explain your rationale.

Thanks

George

Q: I am about a 1.5 years away from retirement. Across all my my registered portfolios I have all 5 major banks, pretty well in equal %. An independent financial advisor suggested cutting this back to 2 banks.

My question to you is can to rank these 5 banks in order of what you would consider selling?

Thank you.