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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Sorry for asking another question about SYZ, but something doesn't smell right here. It appears that a couple executives bought some small amounts of stocks (aprox $250K) late last year, which for a light trading stock like this creates some excitement and pushes the stock higher and then late January the CEO and and officer sold $7.1 millions worth of stock, just before a bad quarter and the stock drops like a rock. While maybe legal, it doesn't feel right to say the least and I don't understand how the sale went through as it trades very lightly.

Do you have any concerns about management practices? Does it point to deeper problems at the company?

Thanks M
Read Answer Asked by Marios on April 10, 2017
Q: Circling back on Leon's Furniture as a stable dividend paying stock with hidden potential...


Furniture business is a tough one but Leon's is likely the best operator:
- there is no shortage of tough competition in this fragmented industry: Ikea, Costco, Wallmart, Sleep Country, Superstores and partially Amazon on-line & US shopping (although only subset of their inventory like electronics as people won't buy entire dining set on-line or load in their trunk across the US border).

- on the positive, landscape is also improving: bought their biggest / most direct competitor The Brick in 2013, Target is out of Canada, Future Shop closed and Sears Home is almost bankrupt.


Checking the financials, I was surprised to find Leon's actually growing despite tough Canadian economy: 2015 SSS: +1.2% and 2106 SSS: +4.1% - but based on above, to build a conservative case, I assume no sales growth going forward.


What struck my eye in the latest company presentation on their website is the likely financial improvement to come from internal synergies left from The Brick acquisition. Two slides caught my attention:

- "1% SG&A reduction = $20M savings": classical Leon's ran at ~32% while post-Brick, it shot up to 37.5%. In 2016, it finally started coming down to 36.5% with IT systems integration late 2015. Assuming it can continue synergies and get 1% down yearly over the next 4 years, it would add $0.24 to EPS yearly ($20M/83M shares).

- "$50M per year for debt repayment": From MD&A, current debt is $240M after $50M was indeed repaid in 2016. interest at ~3% so yearly interest expense savings of $0.03 yearly ($240M/$50M = 4.8 years; $13.3M interest / 4.8 years = $2.77M and $2.77/83M shares = $0.03).

- 2016 EPS was $1.05. Even with no growth, SG&A and Interest reduction could add $0.27 in 2017 (0.24+0.03) - with same savings target over next 4 years bringing to 2020: SG&A to 32.5% (pre-Brick acquisition) and almost all debt paid, with EPS up to $2.13. Even if hit only part of these targets, there is a lot of potential internal clean-up to improve financials.


A couple of other supporting item to thesis:
- Very aligned Management as Leon family owns 67% of the stock;
- Own most of their real estate, some rumors of possible REIT spin-off last year to unlock value;
- 20% dividend increase last quarter after a few years flat;
- Insider buying (Mark Leon bought 52K shares on March 8 for ~$900K)


Now back at ~$17, valuation seems modest compared to its 10-year average. LNF seems a good value stock - flying under the radar. Is above reasonable / realistic thesis? Thanks for your comments!
Read Answer Asked by Jennifer on April 09, 2017
Q: I consider WSP and STN my core holdings but now due to excellent appreciation they represent 7% and 3% of my portfolio. ARE has been a laggard and represents 1%. With ARE should I go back to SNC which I owned in the past (upside due to the recent acquisition?) or just keep WSP and STN as the only stocks in this area?
Read Answer Asked by JR on April 09, 2017
Q: I have a significant exposure to HCG which I want to reduce. I have been slowly selling some of my HCG shares the past few years, but I incur significant gains that I must pay taxes. My average cost is less than $3.00 per share. I was thinking of buying more HCG shares to increase my average cost and then sell within the year thereby paying less taxes. Do you think this is a sound strategy?
Read Answer Asked by Robert on April 09, 2017
Q: Hello.
Looks like your comments are trending to the negative side as stock price makes its way lower. Waiting to watch this low seems wasteful.

You have written "keep an eye on at this level".
Do you mean get ready to sell because of the disaster that others may no about or be favorable to picking stock at this level?

Peter, it is really hard to see you as a Fund manager holding on to a stock like this with real capital.

Your clarification on keep and eye would be good.
thanks
Dave
Read Answer Asked by David on April 06, 2017
Q: i am a bit surprised on the price action of knight. your membership is huge, on april 1 you released a new report on knight giving it an A-, added it to your balanced equity portfolio-- it was already in your growth portfolio, you are aske numerous questions weekly on knight and based on your answers i have to assume it is your single favorite stock or at least right up there with constellation and a few others. and yet the stock has trended down all week, does knight have a large short position, is something going on i do not know, can you comment. dave
Read Answer Asked by david on April 06, 2017
Q: What are the chances of Wsp increasing the dividend -it has been the same for at least the last 5 years. Given that the stock price is up nicely this month I wonder if it isn't time to move on to a higher dividend stock or a stock with dividend growth for my income account. What do you think and what would you suggest as a replacement -I own most of the stocks in your income portfolio.
Thank you.
Read Answer Asked by Maggie on April 06, 2017
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