Q: Back around the New Year, there was much concern about TOY and the reaction to consumers complaining about the Hatchimals they purchased as gifts. 5i suggested patience and reiterated their confidence that TOY management would resolve the issues. I thought, therefore, that it might be worth noting the following comments made by the lawyers for the plaintiffs who had filed a class action lawsuit that was withdrawn a could of weeks ago.
"Mark Geragos, the lawyer who voluntarily withdrew the law suit on behalf of the plaintiff added, "Spin Master's proactive response was very successful and, to date, they have either responded to all of the outstanding questions or provided replacements, or refunds to consumers. We applaud Spin Master for the highly effective manner in which they have dealt with their customers. Given these factors, we have decided to voluntarily withdraw our class action."
This speaks highly - again - to the quality of advice we members receive from you. TOY is now trading at all-time highs.
As when anything goes wrong in a specific industry such as HCG and mortgages, many companies may be tarred with the same brush. Is there any company that has fallen just being in the same space as HCG that may be a good under valuation buy? Thank-you
I will like your assistance on guiding my investment decision. I have read your report on Knight Therapeutics. After Knight has deployed its war chest($736,000,000), you are forecasting earnings per share of $0.59, plus the EPS for the last quarterly report of 0.06$. If earnings grow at 15% per year for the next 5 years, then in 2022, EPS will be :
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
$0.65 $0.75 $0.86 $0.99 $1.14 $1.31
I am assuming cash is deployed this year, the share count remains constant and investors in 2022 are willing to pay 15 times EPS. If this scenario holds, then in 2022, the share price should trade at around $20 (1.31 X 15). At current price ($10.60), this scenario would result in an annual rate of return for the next five years of 13.1%. Are you comfortable with my scenario or would you change some of my parameters ?
Q: I own some Home Trust notes ( due May17 and Dec18). Are these at risk? Why has the price dropped if they
are due in only a few weeks, is this a bond market looking to take advantage of fear?
Q: Dear 5i, I've read some good questions lately on REITs and return of capital, dividends, business income, and the adjusted cost base for these securities.
I just wanted to follow up and ask if my understanding of the different tax treatments is correct.
1. RRSP: all monies paid to the RRSP is basically exempt and no need to keep track of ROC, dividends, etc.
2. TFSA same as RRSP
3. Cash Account, monies paid to the account must be kept track of and the ACB will be reduced each time ROC is paid back to the investor.
Please confirm this means over a very long period of time the ACB could be reduced to zero or even negative? Is the ROC, Box 42 on a T3, the only amount I have to keep track of?
and another question, on BYD.UN, Why is BYD.UN allowed to operate under .UN status and in your opinion will they eventually be required to convert to a Corp.?
Q: Can you comment on Winpak's (WPK-ca) earnings, their cash position and speculate on how large they can grow their cash position before management begins to consider a special dividend?
Jerome Haas of Lightwater Partners has been shorting HCG successfully for several years
using public info. He points out below that the loan originations were robust concurrently with the loan book decreasing, amongst others.
Q: The authorities knew if they dd anything home capital would have issues. I thought it would skate through with a fine and a few firings. Why bring down the whole company? Check the mortgages determine the default rate and then decide what to do.Announce action everyone deserts Home Capital gics and the company swirls into the bowl. Hoop insider probably knows the default rate ponies up the money.Please explain.
Q: In March and February your comments about this company were generally positive. Yet just recently you said that this company was the most likely candidate to be booted out of the balanced equity portfolio. Sounds like you views have changed in the past four weeks. Can you explain the apparent shift in your position please. Thx.
I have read a suggestion that perhaps OSFI or the government might "encourage" a big bank to purchase home capital. Any insight as to what a potential price could be? What metrics do you think someone could base a bid on?
Q: Can you comment on Constellations Software's debt profile and cash position? From what I recall, it is a definite strength of the company. Is there any plausible short to medium term scenario where the company can destroy their strong financial position?
Q: Do you know if the secondary offering of PKI shares has closed? There is no confirmation on SEDAR and my broker (RBC Direct) hasn't participated in this (yet).
If it has closed, with the price holding above $29, would you consider this a good time to add?
Q: Isn't it a a bit too coincidental that we learn that both Royal Bank and BMO are selling uninsured mortgage backed securities, a few days before the Home Capital death spiral? You have an optimistic bias, and typically trusting towards management, so I speculate that you will answer that there is nothing much to think of it, but could you take a distrusting view on this (without being paranoid) and guess what could have motivated them to do that?
Q: In regard to HCG I am on the wrong end of the stick with this one.
In your defence, I did notice a change in 5i's opinion of HCG around the end of March, here is an excerpt from one of your replies "Unfortunately, there is such a cloud hanging over the company right now, the fear and uncertainty surrounding it make it hard to be excited about in the shorter-term. It could still do quite well if they can get past all of the concerns but actions such as letting go of the CEO are not overly helpful in terms of boosting confidence. We would note that it has been profitable every year since 1999"
Fear and greed rule the markets, investor sentiment affects market value in the short term way more than fundamentals.
At this point, I want to learn what I can from this situation. What would you say are the take-away's from this debacle?
Thanks in advance for your continued excellent work.
Randy D.