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Investment Q&A

Not investment advice or solicitation to buy/sell securities. Do your own due diligence and/or consult an advisor.

Q: Good morning 5i Team

NFI share price peaked in late March and has been been dropping since. The slide has accelerated since the Q3 report. Having read the report and listened to the call, I can't figure out what is causing such a sharp selloff. Here are four things that are noteworthy but still don't justify it in my mind:
1) new manufacturing plants (increased competition in the future)
2) Slightly lower backlog
3) Revelation that for every 10 new units sold, NFI typically takes 7 units in trade, and the re-sale value of trade-ins is declining, hurting margins.
4) Today's news (that the market has probably known for over a month) that 70 jobs will be moving to the US to accommodate the 70% US content rules.

I guess a fifth would be the overall market decline.

I've been watching NFI looking for an entry point. This looks like a good time but I feel that I must be missing something here. I would appreciate your thoughts before I pull the trigger.

Thanks. As always, your insights and guidance is much appreciated.
Peter
Read Answer Asked by Peter on November 13, 2018
Q: In regard to Stantec's and the sale of their construction business do you think this sale should "fix" some of the drags on earnings the last few years? Overall how does this this position the company going forward? Do you think they need a infrastructure program to lift the stock price? And finally I they still quite tied to the oil and gas industries and is that weigh over the stock?

Thanks so much for your advice over the past three years - you have made me a much better investor.

Stuart
Read Answer Asked by Stuart on November 13, 2018
Q: Can you explain and justify what’s going on with Photon. I didn’t sell at the highs When I was up almost 100%, preferring to look more long term than trading. Now, for the first time, I am under water on it. I thought they were rolling out some new products that were supposed to do well and drive numbers up. Do you still see it as a long term (3-5 year) hold to get back to the $2+ range? Or do you see it as a missed opportunity, live and learn, sell and move on?
Thanks
Read Answer Asked by david on November 12, 2018
Q: Do you do a detailed competitive analysis when you research a company? If so, can you provide such for NFI. My specific concerns are the new plants being added to the US that will compete with NFI, 2 that will be online by next year:
- Novabus' new North American assembly plant
- Gillig is in the process of building a new plant in California
An additional 3 new entrants have announced their intention to enter the NA market

Thanks
Read Answer Asked by Darcy on November 12, 2018
Q: Using low end of guidance @ $2.18 the shares are trading at below 11x P/E. Globeinvestor chart is showing RSI in oversold territory (unless I am reading wrong or using incorrect data - which could be a possibility :)).
The long term debt is still pretty high but if we are to believe mgmt.'s story the shares are cheap. I've been picking away and I'm at half a position with an ACB of around $30. Would you suggest buying the other half position with the share price currently at $23.01 as I am writing this question? Or continue to average in during the tax loss selling season?
Read Answer Asked by Richard on November 12, 2018