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CSX Corporation (CSX)
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Union Pacific Corporation (UNP)
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Canadian National Railway Company (CNR)
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Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited (CP)
With buys in the last five months, timing has not been great, as tariffs and recession fears have hit this group very hard. None of these four would give us particular concerns, if one is willing to hold for a while (3 years). Essentially, owning these becomes a bet on how long any recession might be, and also how severe such a scenario might be. Right now, sentiment is very negative, but a break in tariffs, or lower interest rates, could be positive for growth. Valuations here are lower than historical averages (in some cases much lower). We are confident all will come out on the other side of recession in good shape. So, we think it a question of exposure. In a worsening scenario, these could still decline, so we would not want a huge position overall here. But all pay (varying) dividends, and historically, recessions are very short. We would be comfortable holding these IF exposure is reasonable. A lot of bad news is starting to be priced in.