I'm missing something.
Since the USA apparently buys approximately 85-90% of their potash from Canada and the alternative supply is overseas, isn't this a captive market?
Why doesn't Nutrien (assuming it to be the biggest potash player in Canada) increase the price to build value and increase the share price?
The US does heavily rely on Canadian potash, with NTR being a major supplier. Its strong market position could allow for price increases, but potash is a globally traded commodity, and thus its price is mostly determined by global supply and demand forces. If NTR priced potash too high, the US could seek other sources at a cheaper price, despite the increased logistics involved.
In addition, most potash sales occur through long-term contracts, in which suddenly pricing potash much higher would be fairly disruptive.
The price of potash has been bottoming since 2024, and steadily rising throughout 2025. We think that this can benefit NTR, and much of its large price decline in 2023 came from the sudden spike and subsequent crash in potash prices in 2022-2023.