Q: What do you think the odds are of Canada throwing in their trump card in the tariff wars and adding a 10% export tax on the 4 mbpd of oil sent to the states (~20% of their entire consumption)? This would likely spike the world price a lot and not reduce Canadian exports at least in the short term. Would this be a huge "win" for Suncor and other Candian oil stocks?
5i Research Answer:
It might be a 'trade war' win, but we think any acceleration of trade wars will simply worry investors more, and it might not be a 'stock win'. Oil continues to be under a lot of pressure with global economic growth fears. If the Ukraine War ends oil might also be under more pressure.