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  5. AQN: Your analysis of aqn’s results beyond just the numbers would be appreciated. [Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp.]
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Q: Your analysis of aqn’s results beyond just the numbers would be appreciated. Is the transition to a pure play working to stabilize operations and balance sheet?
Asked by Donald on March 10, 2025
5i Research Answer:

EPS of 6.7c missed estimates of 8.7c; revenue of $584.8M missed estimates of $638.3M. EBITDA of $248.6M missed estimates by 5.5%. Investors did not like the miss, nor the sales growth (negative 12%). EBITDA also fell, 26%, year over year. EPS fell sharply from the prior year as well. With a management transition, two dividend cuts, and concern on the economy, a 'miss' and lower revenue/earnings is not likely to encourage investors. EBITDA did at least rise 3% on the full year. Debt fell 11% which was also a positive and this was before the closing of the Atlantic divesiture. The regulated services division did slightly better, due to new rates. Several other states also concluded hearings with rates set to increase. Consensus calls for good EPS growth in 2025 and about 12% growth in 2026. However, investors seem to be discounting the company's predictions somewhat. Still, the stock is up 12% YTD and at times when all the news is not great then any good news can have an amplified impact. It is hard to call a bottom but it is probably 'close' on the assumption that interest rates will in fact go down. Tariffs should not have a big direct impact, but could have an indirect impact, especially if inflation heats up.