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  5. TFII: In response to one of the previous questions you indicated that with 70% of of its business in the US tariffs will not affect its business much. [TFI International Inc.]
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Investment Q&A

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Q: In response to one of the previous questions you indicated that with 70% of of its business in the US tariffs will not affect its business much. The stock has had one of its largest price drawdowns and as we know much of this is due to the very poor Q which in its history is also rare. Do you think that this dramatic price reaction is over done as investors believe the tariffs will have a much greater impact then reality. If you didn't own the shares could a case be made to buy? If not what price or circumstances would move it to a buy?
Asked by John on February 25, 2025
5i Research Answer:

TFII may not be directly impacted, but its customers may very well be. For whatever reason (and tariffs haven't even hit yet) the company, in its own words, saw a 'freight recession'. Business is simply bad and it didn't respond in time. This is concerning of course because if it was bad in the Q4 we are having a hard time seeing how it can get better in the short term with all that's going on now. Basically, tariffs equal uncertainty and uncertainty means business often just stops, like a deer-in-headlights. The new valuation, the company's strong history and the dividend give us confidence in a hold call, but it takes more to turn this into a buy. Canada may be headed for recession, and the US is likely to be not nearly as strong as expected, and if job losses continue and confidence wanes, it won't be long before there is US recession talk as well. So we think buyers have some time here.