HBM is down on weak results and guidance. Hudbay's weak output and cost targets in 2025 risk slashing consensus Ebitda by 10-12%, as copper and gold output guidance was pared 13% and 6%. Lower feed from the relatively high-grade Pampacancha pit, which is set to be exhausted by year-end, as well as ore loss and dilution in its high-grade zones, appear to be the primary reason for the cut. This could lead to a blended grade at Constancia of just 0.3% in 2025. The company's Copper World project in Arizona, which may produce 92,000 tons of copper at a cost of $1.53 a pound, is advancing through definitive feasibility studies. A process to secure a minority joint-venture partner in the project began this year. Management expects Copper World to reach final-investment decision in 2026 It still has a lot of debt and EPS is expected to decline this year. The stock is very cheap but we would be OK letting this one go with a view to check it out later this year or next.
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