Please comment on the ABX earnings today, it has been a huge laggard compared to AEM, AGI, and all the other major gold companies. Are these earnings good enough to move the stock up to catch up ??
Thanks,
George
EPS of 46c beat estimates of 42c. Revenue of $3.65B missed estimates of $3.94B. Consensus has already adjusted to Barrick's muted 2025 gold-output guidance of 3.1-3.55 million ounces, which is flat vs. 2024, adjusting for Loulo-Gounkoto. Yet should the company reach a resolution with the Mali government allowing the Loulo-Gounkoto mine to be restarted in 2H, while gold holds its current price of $2,950 an ounce, Ebitda could rise to $8.2-$8.6 billion, 8-10% above consensus. Yet should the mine stay shuttered, Ebitda would be $7.8-$8 billion -- in line with consensus. Strong operating cash flow should be sufficient to fund higher capital spending and the continuation of the share buyback, such that net debt stays rangebound at $600-$800 million. A resolution in Mali may be an upside with the release of seized gold to the value of $320 million. There are still some uncertainties here. But, these do look reflected in the very low valuation at 11X earnings.