Q: Hi Peter and team,
I'm wondering how resilient TFII is in the face of prolonged tariffs (if it ever comes to that). The business section of the Toronto Star had an article with a scary introduction:
MONTREAL - Truckers say the sweeping tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump would wreak havoc on their industry as trade between Canada and the United States takes a hit.
“If these tariffs came in at those levels for a prolonged period, this could be the final nail in the coffin for many trucking fleets,” said Stephen Laskowski, president of the Canadian Trucking Alliance.
“It’s a grim picture.”
Realizing that TFII is a large company, does it have what it takes to 'weather the storm'?
Thanks for your insight.
I'm wondering how resilient TFII is in the face of prolonged tariffs (if it ever comes to that). The business section of the Toronto Star had an article with a scary introduction:
MONTREAL - Truckers say the sweeping tariffs threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump would wreak havoc on their industry as trade between Canada and the United States takes a hit.
“If these tariffs came in at those levels for a prolonged period, this could be the final nail in the coffin for many trucking fleets,” said Stephen Laskowski, president of the Canadian Trucking Alliance.
“It’s a grim picture.”
Realizing that TFII is a large company, does it have what it takes to 'weather the storm'?
Thanks for your insight.
5i Research Answer:
Probably. In its last full reported year, TFII had $5B in revenue within the US. Certainly cross-border traffic may be impacted, but onshoring and protectionist policies could possibly boost US traffic as an offset. TFII, in its history, has also been known to make strategic acquisitions when the industry is in a slump, for whatever reason. If things do weaken in the sector we might expect to see it make some deals. Certainly there are risks here, but this would not be the company's first recession, if one occurs due to tariffs. It generates very high cash flow which can provide some cushioning.