Q: I'm confused about why IIP shares are doing so poorly. The last two quarterly reports were excellent. ffo is up, dividends increased, debt to book value is less than 40%. I realize IIP is mostly in toronto, which is rent controlled, but if I understand it right those controls are only on older buildings, and interrent is renovating the older buildings in order to increase the rents above the inflation rate. So here is a stock that seems to have an extremely safe dive, which increases every year (5% or more for 13 straight years, i believe), and growing cash flow......yet the stock price is at a multi year low. Am I missing something?
5i Research Answer:
There may be a few reasons. It did miss cash flow per unit estimates in the Q3. Not by a lot, but a miss is a miss (15.9c vs 16.1c expected). The yield curve, despite Bank of Canada rate cuts, has still managed to shift upward. The recent government moves on immigration likely has some investors worried. Canada's population will actually likely decline for a couple of years now. Finally, IIP has had a premium valuation for some time. Even now it is above the peer group average at 17X cash flow. We would consider it a HOLD but it is getting interesting here. It historically has been one of the better REITs.