Q: CAE has been another good news story for me this week. Finally they put together a decent quarter, at least in my eyes, what do you think about their qurarter? I know one quarter does not make a trend but I would hate to get out of something after a good gain. Now it is nearly at $31. Is this fair value for CAE for the near to mid term. At this price there should be no tax loss selling on CAE this year, right? My discipline tells me to sell but does your expert opinion shout, "gain for the long haul"?
5i Research Answer:
CAE EPS of 24c beat estimates of 19c; revenue of $1.13B beat estimates of $1.08B. Backlog is now a record $18B. We have liked the stock historically, but it has had lots of execution issues. It has high market share, but we always thought it should be more profitable overall, considering its moat and duopolistic industry with really just one other serious global competitor. We would consider 25X earnings fairly priced and would prefer an exit into something more reliable.