Q: Paramount Reources POU. The Riddel Family is back doing deals which is fine by me. But I am not sure if I should sell yet or hang on for the stock fo get bid up a bit more. My risk/reward thinking was: If North America has a long and cold winter, nat gas will go up and the price of nat gas shares (for all companies) would go up and I would sell the rip. The down side thesis was: if North america has a mild, short, or worse mild and short winter, nat gas pricing would stay low, POU would still pay a 7 per cent monthly dividend and the share price would bump around in the $25 range. In short, limited downside with potential a good upside. With this deal that has all changed. I think I should sell POU and get back into ARC. So what do you think? If you do the math is $32 too cheap to sell POU? If so, how much more could arbitrage drive up the POU share price? and is switching nat gas horses from POU to arx or another stock a good idea (even though winter again has not arrived even though it is mid-November!!!)
5i Research Answer:
Most of these are going to have the same influences. With lots of cash now, POU has flexibility. It plans to return some to shareholders and focus on the Duvernay, which we think investors will like. It's a tough call without knowing exactly what POU plans with the $$$. Our call would be to stay the course, for now.