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  5. CNR: I have a general question and am using CN Rail and CGI as examples. [Canadian National Railway Company]
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Q: I have a general question and am using CN Rail and CGI as examples.

These 2 companies have an average annual sales growth of less than 5% per year over the course of the last decade and their EPS is higher. In the last 5 years the average EPS growth has been in the double digits and their average sales growth less than 5%. I know they buy back shares every year but this can not account for such a large variance. I know they try to be more careful with expenses but you can’t cut expenses forever. You would normally think that EPS follows Sales (to some extent over the years). I know you like these companies and have a few questions.
1. Any idea what is behind the variance between sales and EPS. (Mid to low single digit sales growth and double-digit EPS growth.)
2. Considering such a variance, if average sales growth remains under 5% can these companies continue to compound our return in the double digits over time. Why would they continue to be good long term investments?
3. Anything else that may be worthwhile sharing.

Thanks.
Asked by Walter on November 12, 2024
5i Research Answer:

A few levers mature companies can take advantage of to grow EPS by double-digits over the years include: 1) Gradual margin expansion through price increases while controlling costs efficiently. 2) Leveraging up the balance sheet and using the proceeds to repurchase shares to raise dividends. There is no magic, it is just math. For example, GIB.A has managed to grow its topline organically by around 5%-6% on average through a combination of volume growth (2%-3%) and price adjustments over time (3%-4%), if the result was that its expenses would grow slower, then EBIT could grow at around 7%-8% overtime. GIB.A can then use the cash flow and additional debt capacity to repurchase around 5% of its shares outstanding. This algorithm can continue to work for a long time.

These two companies are largely mature but still growing businesses. We think these two companies can continue to provide shareholders with a total return in the range of 12%-15% over the long term with limited risks.