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  5. TOU: Good morning, I accept virtually every expert’s opinion that Tourmaline is a great company with great management, but I’m trying to figure out given all the current conditions if it is a good stock... [Tourmaline Oil Corp.]
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Q: Good morning, I accept virtually every expert’s opinion that Tourmaline is a great company with great management, but I’m trying to figure out given all the current conditions if it is a good stock/investment? I know they are returning lots of earnings through special dividends but the share price has been sideways for many years. There seems to be some doubt about the positive impact of the new LNG facility, and if the US unleashes new supply (as in “drill baby, drill”) the glut may not be going away anytime soon. If you had enough O&G exposure, would you still find it a compelling investment for the medium term, or would you deploy the capital elsewhere (no tax implications)? Suggestions (any sector)? Thanks for your thoughts.
Asked by Stephen R. on November 08, 2024
5i Research Answer:

We cannot do much about the sector, but in terms of quality teams within the sector we would put TOU at or near the top. The team has built and sold several mutli-billion dollar companies. Mr. Rose and team are extremely wealthy, and they are building companies and legacies, and are not really doing it for 'more' money. A rising share price though is a by-product. LNG is going to take a while to have material impact in Canada. There is still shipping constrained, and Canada is still somewhat of a locked-in market because of pipeline capacity. None of this is new to TOU, however. The sector is cyclical of course, and the past few years have been extra weak for gas. But, on a wider view, TOU shares have still risen over 10 years (50%). Including dividends (approx. $20) thats another 50% gain in that period. So, if an investor wants sector exposure at all, we would be very comfortable owning TOU. If there are five or six sector stocks held, we would probably be fine replacing any of them with TOU, more or less. Tech and industrials, as sectors, still look good to us. With sector valuations so low, balance sheets so strong and dividends so high, we would not really advise a 0% energy weighting.