Q: Hi 5i,
I've searched the miscellaneous question category back to early September and, surprisingly, haven't seen this or a related question:
It appears the chances of a Trump win in 10 days' time are at least 50/50. He has said he will impose 10-20% tariffs on everything the US imports. He has said he will look at the USMCA agreement, which could mean he'll just tear it up. There's no real reason to think he won't do the things he says he's going to do, and he may well do a whole bunch more, economically and trade related, that he hasn't talked about. Whatever actually transpires, his economic policy is likely to be very disruptive, both in the US and abroad. As Canada's largest trading partner (although we mean considerably less to the US, relatively speaking) the impacts could be significant here.
Do you agree the impact on Canada could be significant, what do you think the impact(s) might be and what, if anything, would you recommend a Canadian with a diversified portfolio of Canadian equities do to Trump proof the portfolio and reduce the shock?
Frankly, I'm worried ...
Thanks,
Peter
I've searched the miscellaneous question category back to early September and, surprisingly, haven't seen this or a related question:
It appears the chances of a Trump win in 10 days' time are at least 50/50. He has said he will impose 10-20% tariffs on everything the US imports. He has said he will look at the USMCA agreement, which could mean he'll just tear it up. There's no real reason to think he won't do the things he says he's going to do, and he may well do a whole bunch more, economically and trade related, that he hasn't talked about. Whatever actually transpires, his economic policy is likely to be very disruptive, both in the US and abroad. As Canada's largest trading partner (although we mean considerably less to the US, relatively speaking) the impacts could be significant here.
Do you agree the impact on Canada could be significant, what do you think the impact(s) might be and what, if anything, would you recommend a Canadian with a diversified portfolio of Canadian equities do to Trump proof the portfolio and reduce the shock?
Frankly, I'm worried ...
Thanks,
Peter
5i Research Answer:
There is concern, but portfolio action on that concern is more difficult. One needs to right on the election call, the implementation of said tariffs, and right as well on the market's reaction. Some of this is likely in stock prices already. Please reference this recent answer, and this one. This answer discusses sector impact under various scenarios. Using text search 'trump' will bring out more answers previously discussed. Canadian Industrial companies with ties to the US (nearly every one) could be impacted with lowered demand. But we would also note the Canadian market rose 20%+ during Trump's prior presidency, and that includes the impact of an 18.8% decline in 2018.