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  5. CSU: In a recent response to a CSU Question, you said they are trading at 24Xs with a historical range of 16-24. [Constellation Software Inc.]
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Investment Q&A

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Q: In a recent response to a CSU Question, you said they are trading at 24Xs with a historical range of 16-24. So, in a scenario where the market takes the SP back to the 16 range, what is the downside in the SP from current levels?

Thanks for your help.
Asked by Arthur on October 22, 2024
5i Research Answer:

The high multiple could be a headwind for prospective returns going forward, but with that being said, we think equity multiples, in general, are dynamic. The market does not simply place a higher valuation multiple on just any company unless it finds some favourable attributes that are sustainable, like the company has demonstrated consistent execution over the years, top-class management, strong competitive advantages that are hard to replicate, etc. which we think CSU checks all the boxes. In other words, we think CSU’s higher valuation multiple makes sense. 

Although, in the event that CSU's multiple contracts to its historical average, this would represent a 45% drawdown. We feel there would have to be a significant change in its fundamentals or execution to warrant this type of drawdown.