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Investment Q&A

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Q: I am a long-term dividend growth investor. I bought CGNX because it is debt-free and a leader in machine vision technology. I expected it to benefit from growth in the industrial automation sector. I also thought there was some possibility of it being acquired by a larger player in the IA sector. However I have been disappointed in its performance over the last twelve months as its growth seems to have stalled. I am considering switching to CNR, still in the industrial sector, but benefitting from overall industrial growth with less volatility. Would you hang in with CGNX for the long term or would you switch to CNR? I am also considering a sector switch to GOOGL which seems to have much better growth and ROIC than either of these companies. Which is the better long term investment?
Asked by David on September 19, 2024
5i Research Answer:

Things have certainly stalled for CGNX with the stock down nearly 11% over the last year as revenue and earnings have been in decline. It appears that the business has some cyclicality looking at the company's fundamentals but it does also play into AI trends. Analyst estimates are ~14% revenue growth and above 40% earnings growth for 2025 and 2026, so it may be entering a demand cycle. CGNX does look decent outside of the current growth trends with no debt and a good ability to generate cash flows. CNR is of course much safer as a quality large cap stock that pays a nice dividend and will see less volatility. The decision really comes down to risky growth vs lower growth, less volatility, and dividend safety. GOOGL is by far the largest name and could offer the best combination of growth and risk but it is totally different business. For growth, we would probably lean GOOGL but it really depends on how aggressive an investor is. CNR is the only big dividend payer/grower out of the three. GOOG just started its (tiny) dividend. 

Authors of this answer, directors, partners and/or officers of 5i Research and/or affiliated companies have a financial or other interest in GOOG.