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  5. IMO: With lng Canada online soon, things are looking good in the years ahead for Nat gas Price in general but there is also a recession risk if we dont get a soft landing. [Imperial Oil Limited]
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Q: With lng Canada online soon, things are looking good in the years ahead for Nat gas Price in general but there is also a recession risk if we dont get a soft landing. My question is would you be confortable holding a full oil&gas positions atm or keep a decent cash position like mr. Buffet .
I'm not sure how big of an impact a recession might have on the Sector given whats ahead with current lng development and the Sector being already depressed as it is, how much further down could it go if we do get the recession



Asked by Yanika on September 09, 2024
5i Research Answer:

It is true that if the economy turns into a recession, the oil and gas (O&G) industry may experience a downturn which may take time to recover. That being said, most O&G companies are generating record cash flows, with stronger balance sheets than ever compared to previous cycles. Most names in this industry may get worse before getting better, but where most oil companies are trading (OXY, TOU, IMO, MPC, etc.) is quite attractive, and could offer decent prospective returns three to five years from now.

Most investors don’t have the same headache as Mr. Buffet with multi-billion dollars of capital to be deployed. We think investors should invest when valuations are attractive, and just hold a minor cash position (depending on investors’ risk tolerance) to take advantage of the downturn.